Closer to a Red Senate

[What Would Jesus Do?]

With tax impropriety charges leveled against her, Democratic Maryland Senate candidate Alsobrooks is probably in trouble. The race was already a tossup, in my mind, and this could tip it the wrong way.

The charges aren't huge, and some might be accidental (credits being claimed that previously were correct but she no longer qualifies, and maybe she just neglected to uncheck the boxes). They wouldn't even get a mention in the press if she were Trump. But she's not Trump and is a black woman to boot. So I fully expect memes comparing her with Al Capone, Bernie Madoff and other notorious tax grifters.

According to 270to win, the Dems have to win every tossup state - including Montana, Ohio and now MD - AND Harris has to beat Trump, or the Senate turns Red. Any single loss and we have a Red Senate no matter who is President.

Harris needs to develop some coattails.

Play around with the Senate races yourself here:

2024 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin

Who will control the Senate? Review and predict the outcome of the 34 Senate races in the 2024 elections.

www.270towin.com

 

[Phenomenally Frantastic]

They aren’t tax evasion, they’re happy little accidents! Hehe!

 

[StormHawk42]

The Senate was always going to be an extremely tall task. Harris is all I care about this cycle. The 2026 map is way more favorable for Dems.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Harris will need to show some successes if the Dems are to do well in 2026.

One win she might get with a Red Senate is the stalled immigration bill. With Trump out of the way, I assume the Rs will agree to that one - although the Dems probably shouldn't, without some changes. But Kamala has said she'd sign it, I think, so that's probably going to happen.

Is there anything else the Dems might get through a Red Senate, even assuming they regain control of the House?

Support for Ukraine, probably. What else. I've got nothing. Perhaps because Kamala isn't pushing policies.

Outrage over Roe is likely to still be simmering in 2026 (and a Red Senate will never fix that), but how many election cycles can that be expected to bend the curve for the Democrats? It saved them from a trouncing in 2022, and may pull out a win for Kamala in a few weeks. But Dems need to point to more than Roe and a few poorly-understood Biden wins if they expect to prevail in 2026.

 

[Mayland]

With tax impropriety charges leveled against her, Democratic Maryland Senate candidate Alsobrooks is probably in trouble. The race was already a tossup, in my mind, and this could tip it the wrong way.

The charges aren't huge, and some might be accidental (credits being claimed that previously were correct but she no longer qualifies, and maybe she just neglected to uncheck the boxes). They wouldn't even get a mention in the press if she were Trump. But she's not Trump and is a black woman to boot. So I fully expect memes comparing her with Al Capone, Bernie Madoff and other notorious tax grifters.

According to 270to win, the Dems have to win every tossup state - including Montana, Ohio and now MD - AND Harris has to beat Trump, or the Senate turns Red. Any single loss and we have a Red Senate no matter who is President.

Harris needs to develop some coattails.

Play around with the Senate races yourself here:

2024 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin

Who will control the Senate? Review and predict the outcome of the 34 Senate races in the 2024 elections.

www.270towin.com

Is Tester’s seat really on the line? That would explain all the ads I’m seeing for Montana’s senate seat.

 

[Tom Paris]

Texas needs to wake up and toss Ted Cruz.

 

[RicoSuave102954]

Red Wave Tsunami warning - White House - Senate - House all gonna be Red!

 

[Gimmered]

Not sure how Deb Fisher is safe. She's not popular and abortion is on the ballot. I could see Osborn winning.

 

[RicoSuave102954]

Not sure how Deb Fisher is safe. She's not popular and abortion is on the ballot. I could see Osborn winning.

Isn't Osborn an independent? Won't even be close - Fischer wins

 

[jonesy5960]

Huh. If this were Trump his approval numbers would go up another 2 points with GOP voters.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Texas needs to wake up and toss Ted Cruz.

Ditto for Florida and Rick Scott.

A few hundred million in ads, each, might flip both races. Do the Dems have enough and will they spend it that way?

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

Red Wave Tsunami warning - White House - Senate - House all gonna be Red!

Possible.

Netanyahu can be counted on for an October surprise. Something to do with Iran, maybe, that Trump can rush to endorse. Or some atrocities in the West Bank that Kamala will be forced to condemn.

Maybe Putin will help, too. That would probably be in the cyber domain.

Last minute AI fakes could shift some races. The Rs can count on Ds to be more restrained and less effective in this arena, so this could be a bigger factor than many expect.

Needless to say Elon Musk will weaponize X as much as possible, along with actions by Peter Thiel and other wealthy cranks.

I assume Big Oil will blitz Pennsylvania even more than they already have.

Abortion and "I'm not Trump" are strong plays for Harris, but I seriously question whether they're enough to win.

 

[IIowaFarmBoy]

Possible.

Netanyahu can be counted on for an October surprise. Something to do with Iran, maybe, that Trump can rush to endorse. Or some atrocities in the West Bank that Kamala will be forced to condemn.

Maybe Putin will help, too. That would probably be in the cyber domain.

Last minute AI fakes could shift some races. The Rs can count on Ds to be more restrained and less effective in this arena, so this could be a bigger factor than many expect.

Needless to say Elon Musk will weaponize X as much as possible, along with actions by Peter Thiel and other wealthy cranks.

I assume Big Oil will blitz Pennsylvania even more than they already have.

Abortion and "I'm not Trump" are strong plays for Harris, but I seriously question whether they're enough to win.

I've never seen the political divide this strong. I wouldn't be so sure of Big Oil influence in Pennsylvania. What will make or break PA is who wins the Philadelphia v the rest race. It's a different egg with historical conservative Dems even though not in the south.

 

[MitchLL]

The Dems need to flip the House.

Win the WH and reclaim the Senate in 2026.

All doable.

 

[sober_teacher]

Is Tester’s seat really on the line? That would explain all the ads I’m seeing for Montana’s senate seat.

Been awhile since I saw a poll for the state but that’s a deep red state that Tester has already defied the odds a few times as governor and then for senate (my understanding is that his family is big there but I could be wrong). Hope he pulls it out but I of the vulnerable Dems that’s the one I’d see as most likely to flip.

 

[tumorboy]

Texas needs to wake up and toss Ted Cruz.

Saw the latest poll has it as a dead heat. Will be interesting.

 

[Tiny Hands Trump]

Donald Trump insulted Ted's wife and Ted's reaction was to get down on his knees and open his mouth. Alpha male!

 

[franklinman]

I've never seen the political divide this strong. I wouldn't be so sure of Big Oil influence in Pennsylvania. What will make or break PA is who wins the Philadelphia v the rest race. It's a different egg with historical conservative Dems even though not in the south.

A huge lithium field in Penna has been discovered by Pitt university with as much as 400,000 tons, estimated, could be mined and Harris has already agreed to let get it started. Big oil hasn't put out any ads against Harris so far, so i don't expect any now.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

The Dems need to flip the House.

Win the WH and reclaim the Senate in 2026.

All doable.

Possible, I suppose. The Dems beat the midterm odds in 2022, after all, so maybe they can do it again in 2026.

That said, unless the Supreme Court does something else horrendous - which they might - I don't like our chances without the ability to pass good legislation between now and then.

 

[RicoSuave102954]

Possible.

Netanyahu can be counted on for an October surprise. Something to do with Iran, maybe, that Trump can rush to endorse. Or some atrocities in the West Bank that Kamala will be forced to condemn.

Maybe Putin will help, too. That would probably be in the cyber domain.

Last minute AI fakes could shift some races. The Rs can count on Ds to be more restrained and less effective in this arena, so this could be a bigger factor than many expect.

Needless to say Elon Musk will weaponize X as much as possible, along with actions by Peter Thiel and other wealthy cranks.

I assume Big Oil will blitz Pennsylvania even more than they already have.

Abortion and "I'm not Trump" are strong plays for Harris, but I seriously question whether they're enough to win.

LOL - Only some fringe lunatic liberal voters will put abortion above what's best for their economic wellbeing.

In simple terms only a handful of voters place the right to kill their own baby as the driving force to vote for a particular candidate.

You Dems have nothing to campaign on except abortion and the average Joe American could care less about that, only some freako liberal gets all worked up over abortion.