College Football Playoffs - The Elongator

[Half-Full Hawk]

Screw the ESPN Eliminator. We need help from The Elongator to prolong our CFP dreams. With 99.2% certainty this will not happen. But what if...

- ND loses @ NW and then either to a rejuvenated 'Cuse or @ USC (2 late losses...dangerous)
- Pac 12 darlings Wazzu come back to earth and lose one, + Utah fails to run the table (see ya)
- Oklahoma loses either to Texas Tech or OkSt. and then the Big 12 title game (3 losses)
- WVU falls to Texas this weekend, then one more to OkSt. or OKLA (3 losses)
- Texas falls to either the beloved Clones or rival Tech (3 losses)
- Clemson runs the table on a weak ACC + Bama does what they do (2 shoe-ins)

Would that not leave room for a 2 loss BIG champion? It could, even if two SEC teams get in (hard to dream up a scenario that all SEC contenders lose 3). If by a minor miracle the Hawks go 4-0, and WI loses just one, what scenario do we need in the BIG title game to punch our ticket?

Beating OSU or Michigan straight up should seal the deal, as either would have two losses and neither a great non-conference win to justify selection over Iowa. Stayin' alive... baby!

 

[Half-Full Hawk]

At the risk of severe backlash, I'm bumping my own thread... because it's important DAMMIT! You'll see that my above scenario, which preceded the CFP rankings, is entirely valid. Two ND losses, Big 12 cannibalization, and a couple Pac 12 losses (which will happen) is all we need to root for. Yes two SEC teams will get in, but not three. Any two-loss BIG champ would be in the mix.

Serious responses or LOL, LMAO, or GTFO would be welcomed.

 

[IASULLY52]

I was running though those scenarios last night. Remember OSU was # 16 in the first playoff rankings when they got in and won the title. Of course none of this will ever align but it is fun to think about:

Let's just assume Alabama, Clemson, and one other SEC (#6 GA/#3 LSU) gets in, that 4th spot might be up for grabs (of course the above isn't guaranteed and only helps if that doesn't go to plan...)

#4 ND can easily lose 2 of: NW, Syracuse or USC, and maybe FSU even gives them trouble.

#7 Oklahoma has a night game this Sat at TT, then OK St, and At WVU plus a B12 title game

#8 WSU still has Cal, Colorado, AZ, and Wash plus a Pac12 Title game- almost guaranteed at least 1 loss there

#9 Kentucky should be eliminated by GA this weekend

#12 UCF has a tough test against Temple (who blasted Maryland remember) this Thursday. Hopefully that removes any thought of them entering. Otherwise Cincy or USF should pose problems enough to make the committee wonder.

#13 WVU plays Tex this weekend, then OK St, Ok, B12 Title- Good luck

#14 PSU loses to Mich or Wisconsin (yes not good for our B10 west title, but we're past that)

#15 Utah plays ASU, Oregon, Colorado and BYU plus P12 championship- there's 1 loss at least

#17 Tex plays WVU, ISU, plus B12 champ

That leaves the following, and if we assume Iowa wins b10 we have:
2 loss top 15 OSU (Big loss to Purdue is a black eye plus loss to Mich or Conf Champ loss)
2 loss top 10 Mich (recent loss to OSU, or loss in conf champ)
2 Loss Florida (Won't send 3 SEC to playoff)
2 Loss Kentucky (Won't send 3 SEC to playoff)
2 Loss ND losing 2 of final 4 games to weak opponents
And 2 loss Iowa with domination of weaker opponents, two close losses, and a recent victory over a top 10 CFP team in the B10 Championship. Plus ISU's ranking helps the SOS if they keep winning.

We look pretty good in that scenario

Can we dream for a few days at least?

 

[HaydenHawk8]

I’d just be happy with a 4-0 finish. Let the chips fall where they may, I just want this team to play a complete game and play to their potential. They’ve had some sloppy games vs good teams. Need to be more fundamentally sound and take of business.

I think a 2 loss team will be in the playoff this year. I just do not know who?

 

[scotthawk1964]

The only good that came about from losing at Penn State is that we can actually stop talking about making the CFP, or so I thought. We have no chance, let me go on record. LOL Not until the playoffs expand to make power five conference champions automatic bids and add a couple at large bids. But for this year, we have a better chance to win the lottery then to make the CFP, even if we win out and win the BIG championship. Just my opinion.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Screw the ESPN Eliminator. We need help from The Elongator to prolong our CFP dreams. With 99.2% certainty this will not happen. But what if...

- ND loses @ NW and then either to a rejuvenated 'Cuse or @ USC (2 late losses...dangerous)
- Pac 12 darlings Wazzu come back to earth and lose one, + Utah fails to run the table (see ya)
- Oklahoma loses either to Texas Tech or OkSt. and then the Big 12 title game (3 losses)
- WVU falls to Texas this weekend, then one more to OkSt. or OKLA (3 losses)
- Texas falls to either the beloved Clones or rival Tech (3 losses)
- Clemson runs the table on a weak ACC + Bama does what they do (2 shoe-ins)

Would that not leave room for a 2 loss BIG champion? It could, even if two SEC teams get in (hard to dream up a scenario that all SEC contenders lose 3). If by a minor miracle the Hawks go 4-0, and WI loses just one, what scenario do we need in the BIG title game to punch our ticket?

Beating OSU or Michigan straight up should seal the deal, as either would have two losses and neither a great non-conference win to justify selection over Iowa. Stayin' alive... baby!

National championship....

 

[KuwaitHawk]

There is no way the sec gets two teams again. The only deserved one last year and EVERYONE knows which team SHOULD have been left out.

 

[hawkfeever]

I was running though those scenarios last night. Remember OSU was # 16 in the first playoff rankings when they got in and won the title. Of course none of this will ever align but it is fun to think about:

Let's just assume Alabama, Clemson, and one other SEC (#6 GA/#3 LSU) gets in, that 4th spot might be up for grabs (of course the above isn't guaranteed and only helps if that doesn't go to plan...)

#4 ND can easily lose 2 of: NW, Syracuse or USC, and maybe FSU even gives them trouble.

#7 Oklahoma has a night game this Sat at TT, then OK St, and At WVU plus a B12 title game

#8 WSU still has Cal, Colorado, AZ, and Wash plus a Pac12 Title game- almost guaranteed at least 1 loss there

#9 Kentucky should be eliminated by GA this weekend

#12 UCF has a tough test against Temple (who blasted Maryland remember) this Thursday. Hopefully that removes any thought of them entering. Otherwise Cincy or USF should pose problems enough to make the committee wonder.

#13 WVU plays Tex this weekend, then OK St, Ok, B12 Title- Good luck

#14 PSU loses to Mich or Wisconsin (yes not good for our B10 west title, but we're past that)

#15 Utah plays ASU, Oregon, Colorado and BYU plus P12 championship- there's 1 loss at least

#17 Tex plays WVU, ISU, plus B12 champ

That leaves the following, and if we assume Iowa wins b10 we have:
2 loss top 15 OSU (Big loss to Purdue is a black eye plus loss to Mich or Conf Champ loss)
2 loss top 10 Mich (recent loss to OSU, or loss in conf champ)
2 Loss Florida (Won't send 3 SEC to playoff)
2 Loss Kentucky (Won't send 3 SEC to playoff)
2 Loss ND losing 2 of final 4 games to weak opponents
And 2 loss Iowa with domination of weaker opponents, two close losses, and a recent victory over a top 10 CFP team in the B10 Championship. Plus ISU's ranking helps the SOS if they keep winning.

We look pretty good in that scenario

Can we dream for a few days at least?

And I wonder if a 2 loss OSU has a third strike for this year with the early season Meyer issue. Humans are deciding this stuff.

 

[hawkfeever]

At the risk of severe backlash, I'm bumping my own thread... because it's important DAMMIT! You'll see that my above scenario, which preceded the CFP rankings, is entirely valid. Two ND losses, Big 12 cannibalization, and a couple Pac 12 losses (which will happen) is all we need to root for. Yes two SEC teams will get in, but not three. Any two-loss BIG champ would be in the mix.

Serious responses or LOL, LMAO, or GTFO would be welcomed.

The dream continues for one more week anyway.

 

[Kinnick.At.Night]

Call me scared, call me a doubter call me whatever you want. I don’t want Iowa to be on any path where Alabama is on the far end. Down that road lies annhiliation.