Combined Seed Differential @B10s. We need to do much better at NCAAs..

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Hi all,

Courtesy of Rokfin, here are the final combined seed differentials per team at B10s, with the teams listed in the order of their final standings. Iowa had the second worst outcome; only Rutgers finished worse. We need to hold seed at NCAAs! Go Hawks!

• Penn State: -3 differential
• Nebraska: -9 differential
• Iowa: -10 differential
• Minnesota: +3 differential
• Illinois: +10 differential
• Ohio State: +5 differential
• Michigan: +9 differential
• Maryland: +1 differential
• Rutgers: -12 differential
• Purdue: 0 differential
• Indiana: -2 differential
• Northwestern: -9 differential
• Wisconsin: +8 differential
• Michigan State: +6 differential

https://rokfin.com/article/19620/B1G-Seed-versus-Result

 

[bammhawk1]

🤮 Need to rebound this next week and hopefully they do

 

[HugoBear]

I find it interesting that the consensus is that Nebraska and Illinois both had a great showing at the B1G tournament, yet Nebraska is a -9 and Illinois a +10.

Maybe there isn't too much that can be gleaned from those numbers?

 

[loonhawk]

I find it interesting that the consensus is that Nebraska and Illinois both had a great showing at the B1G tournament, yet Nebraska is a -9 and Illinois a +10.

Maybe there isn't too much that can be gleaned from those numbers?

The numbers also don't reflect bonus, which it seems like Nebraska had a lot of

 

[ChiPackHawk]

Hi all,

Courtesy of Rokfin, here are the final combined seed differentials per team at B10s, with the teams listed in the order of their final standings. Iowa had the second worst outcome; only Rutgers finished worse. We need to hold seed at NCAAs! Go Hawks!

• Penn State: -3 differential
• Nebraska: -9 differential
• Iowa: -10 differential
• Minnesota: +3 differential
• Illinois: +10 differential
• Ohio State: +5 differential
• Michigan: +9 differential
• Maryland: +1 differential
• Rutgers: -12 differential
• Purdue: 0 differential
• Indiana: -2 differential
• Northwestern: -9 differential
• Wisconsin: +8 differential
• Michigan State: +6 differential

https://rokfin.com/article/19620/B1G-Seed-versus-Result

Take Cruz out of it and see what you get?

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

Take Cruz out of it and see what you get?

Without Cruz you still have a -5. Add the -3 for Teemer and we're about there. We just need to get some more above the line efforts!

 

[#10Hawk]

I find it interesting that the consensus is that Nebraska and Illinois both had a great showing at the B1G tournament, yet Nebraska is a -9 and Illinois a +10.

Maybe there isn't too much that can be gleaned from those numbers?

True, Wisconsin is +8, but they will still finish near the bottom...

 

[MSU158]

Without Cruz you still have a -5. Add the -3 for Teemer and we're about there. We just need to get some more above the line efforts!

After removing Cruz and Teemer for pretty obvious reasons, the hard part becomes, who was actually going to get higher? The best Ayala and Buchanan could do was EVEN and in all truthfulness that was the same for Caliendo. Net -2 is actually pretty solid here considering who they all lost to.

After that, the absolute ceiling for Arnold and Kennedy was +1. No one in their right mind had them beating Starocci or Haines. Even then, Kennedy would have had to beat a guy that beat him rather convincingly last time to even get to that 3rd place match So, the absolute ceiling for Ayala, Buchanan, Caliendo, Arnold and Kennedy was +2. That then leaves Schriever at EVEN, Kueter at +4 and Parco at -2. The best Parco could have done was +1.

So, on the face of it, the near perfect dream like tournament for Iowa, excepting Cruz and Teemer would have been Even, Even, +1, Even, +1, +1 , Even and +4. So, those 8 guys missed their nearly absolute ceiling by 1,1,3,0,2,2,1 and 0.

When you look at any even heavily colored Iowa ceiling, those 8 guys were pretty damn close...

 

[blcoach80]

If you have a bunch of 1 and 2 seeds, there isn't much room for improvement on your seeds, but lots of down side. That is part of why Illinois looks so good in this stat. Lots of middle tier seeds with lots of room for improvement. PSU had 5 champs and still had a negative number in comparing to their seeds.

 

[HawkAlum2002]

True, Wisconsin is +8, but they will still finish near the bottom...

It's hard to go anywhere but down when you have most guys seeded high. Schriever and Kueter were about the only hopes of gaining anything and one of them did. The Iowa women just won the national title by 20 points and had 15 all-Americans and yet were minus eight on their seeds (minus 10 for the 10 scores that counted). Was that a good performance or a disappointing performance? I can't remember exactly what Teske placed last year at B10 but he was seeded 14 to start so was probably enough to erase anybody else that didn't meet their seed.

 

[MSU158]

It's hard to go anywhere but down when you have most guys seeded high. Schriever and Kueter were about the only hopes of gaining anything and one of them did. The Iowa women just won the national title by 20 points and had 15 all-Americans and yet were minus eight on their seeds (minus 10 for the 10 scores that counted). Was that a good performance or a disappointing performance? I can't remember exactly what Teske placed last year at B10 but he was seeded 14 to start so was probably enough to erase anybody else that didn't meet their seed.

He was R12, so if you consider that T9, that would be +5...

 

[HawkAlum2002]

He was R12, so if you consider that T9, that would be +5...

I was just thinking B10s for the purpose here. He was seed 14 after the entry snafu and finished 5th, so worth nine points.

 

[sdvike]

Hi all,

Courtesy of Rokfin, here are the final combined seed differentials per team at B10s, with the teams listed in the order of their final standings. Iowa had the second worst outcome; only Rutgers finished worse. We need to hold seed at NCAAs! Go Hawks!

• Penn State: -3 differential
• Nebraska: -9 differential
• Iowa: -10 differential
• Minnesota: +3 differential
• Illinois: +10 differential
• Ohio State: +5 differential
• Michigan: +9 differential
• Maryland: +1 differential
• Rutgers: -12 differential
• Purdue: 0 differential
• Indiana: -2 differential
• Northwestern: -9 differential
• Wisconsin: +8 differential
• Michigan State: +6 differential

https://rokfin.com/article/19620/B1G-Seed-versus-Result

The numbers are legit but kinda deceiving. One or two guys can tank the numbers with a bad tournament while others on the team wrestle just above or at or just below. I hated having to take a upper level statistics course in college but I did learn the importance of throwing out the outliers for a real picture.

 

[MSU158]

I was just thinking B10s for the purpose here. He was seed 14 after the entry snafu and finished 5th, so worth nine points.

Gotcha, that was definitely a big jump...I went back and looked at the NCAA's as well, he was actually the 15 seed, so T9 would have been +6 there. A lot of + from his last 2 tourneys...

 

[MilleGinja]

Alright, I used a slightly different method. There’s a number of expected points for each wrestler based on placement according to seed plus expected advancement points, while assuming highest seed always advances. Limits the number of calcs that way.

Expected pts (placement and advancement pts, which I think I got correct?) by seed
1: 19
2: 15
3: 12.5
4: 11.5
5: 9
6: 8
7: 5.5
8: 4.5
9-12: 0.5
13-14: 0

Doesn’t exactly account for Cons Rd 1 bye, which I think only grants advancement pts if you win Cons Rd 2? But close enough…

For each wrestler, compute difference between actual pts (which includes bonus) and expected, then sum for each team.

Team and overall difference
Illinois +36
Nebraska +34 (holy bonus points)
OSU +26.5
Minnesota +23
Michigan +23
PSU +18.5
Purdue +10
MSU +9 (how could I forget MSU!)
Wisconsin +8.5 (Carried by Rivera)
Maryland +6.5
Indiana 0
Northwestern -4
Iowa -5.5
Rutgers -14 (big ouch)

Still pretty crude, but accounts for bonus at least. Arnold and Kennedy, for example, scored slighter higher than “expected” despite placing lower than seeded due to bonus pts.

There is a decent likelihood of some manual errors here. So let me know if you spot one.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

If Teemer makes a miraculous recovery he could wrestle way over his seed. Unfortunately that seems unlikely. My expectations are that if he gives it a go, he might make it through his first match but that may be it. Anything more than 1 win from him would be outstanding given that he looks like the walking wounded at this point.

 

[Pennstate1985]

If Teemer makes a miraculous recovery he could wrestle way over his seed. Unfortunately that seems unlikely. My expectations are that if he gives it a go, he might make it through his first match but that may be it. Anything more than 1 win from him would be outstanding given that he looks like the walking wounded at this point.

... and maybe got the biggest shaft in the tournament. Teemer's path to a high finish is problematic. The seeding committee did him zero favors. Shapiro in R16 is a slap in the face. Not saying his record didn't justify 18th, but a small adjustment would have made his path easier.

 

[DropitlikeitsHawk]

🤮 Need to rebound this next week and hopefully they do

Year

 

[TarpHawk]

If Teemer makes a miraculous recovery he could wrestle way over his seed. Unfortunately that seems unlikely. My expectations are that if he gives it a go, he might make it through his first match but that may be it. Anything more than 1 win from him would be outstanding given that he looks like the walking wounded at this point.

Simply from watching and making assumptions, it appears to me that wrestling isn't making Teemer's injury worse, he just has limited use of the shoulder, like Clark and McDonough. Otherwise he would've defaulted out of the 7th-8th match. His activity level was actually higher during that match.

He is a lazy wrestler (sorry, but it's true); he calculates the bare minimum he needs to do to win, and then he does it. He is Joe Williams on lithium.

The shoulder has impacted both his wrestling and his calculating ability.

Hopefully he has recalculated that he needs to do more to win. Do it for 5 matches in a row, then he can have a long vacation and heal. But he's gotta turn it up for those 5 matches, despite the pain. Pain is fleeting, glory is forever.