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Consumer confidence cratering ....

Yeah, as much as I hate Trump simply because he is a stupid and vile human being, I’m getting genuinely worried. I figured his crazy would be at a level 10, but it turns out his goes to 11.

Investments are taking a hit and I’m not sure when I should bail to cash. I’m two years from retirement and this is starting to suck.
If you are two years from retirement you should be in a diversified portfolio the includes bonds and at least some low risk cash investments (CDs, treasuries, etc).

Now if Trump gets us to a default then all of those are f*cked. But at least you will have some insulation from market swings.
 
If you are two years from retirement you should be in a diversified portfolio the includes bonds and at least some low risk cash investments (CDs, treasuries, etc).

Now if Trump gets us to a default then all of those are f*cked. But at least you will have some insulation from market swings.
I have bonds and CD’s. But I have a handful of dividends stocks like Pfizer and blue chips like McDonalds. I also have a boatload of Preferreds, which I love. But I may have to start unloading a lot of these.
 

Pessimism about the future returned​

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 7.0 points in February to 98.3 (1985=100). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 3.4 points to 136.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— dropped 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was February 19, 2025.

“In February, consumer confidence registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “This is the third consecutive month on month decline, bringing the Index to the bottom of the range that has prevailed since 2022. Of the five components of the Index, only consumers’ assessment of present business conditions improved, albeit slightly. Views of current labor market conditions weakened. Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income. Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a ten-month high.”

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
You just know someone was in all of these today.


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Yeah, as much as I hate Trump simply because he is a stupid and vile human being, I’m getting genuinely worried. I figured his crazy would be at a level 10, but it turns out his goes to 11.

Investments are taking a hit and I’m not sure when I should bail to cash. I’m two years from retirement and this is starting to suck.
Right ahead of the 2008 crash my large employer's great economists and financial people told the company to stop major purchases and go into as much cash as possible. So I heard this warning and moved all my investments as much as possible into cash type money markets etc, out of the mutual funds. It saved me a lot of money that I would have had to re-earn
 
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TESLA/Musk has me seriously confused. Conservatives have been anti-EV from the start, so they aren’t buying Tesla. Now Musk is doing everything he can to make liberals hate him; so they won’t want to buy Tesla, either.

It’s as if he’s deliberately trying to tank the stock.
Yes, the market reset allows certain people to make money on both the downward movement and inevitable recovery.
 
Right ahead of the 2008 crash my large employer's great economists and financial people told the company to stop major purchases and go into as much cash as possible. So I heard this warning and moved all my investments as much as possible into cash type money markets etc, out of the mutual funds. It saved me a lot of money that I would have had to re-earn
Did the same thing and then again in late 2019 as the evidence of approaching recession came along. Obviously had no idea the pandemic would hasten it and be so dramatic but was very glad I made the moves when I did. Just recently got out of this market as well.
 
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Right ahead of the 2008 crash my large employer's great economists and financial people told the company to stop major purchases and go into as much cash as possible. So I heard this warning and moved all my investments as much as possible into cash type money markets etc, out of the mutual funds. It saved me a lot of money that I would have had to re-earn
Did the same thing and then again in late 2019 as the evidence of approaching recession came along. Obviously had no idea the pandemic would hasten it and be so dramatic but was very glad I made the moves when I did. Just recently got out of this market as well.
Of course the key with this is the timing of when you got back in. If you timed the reversal and called the bottom, you made out like a bandit. If you sat on the sidelines for awhile while everything recovered, you may have ended up in about the same spot.
 
Yeah, as much as I hate Trump simply because he is a stupid and vile human being, I’m getting genuinely worried. I figured his crazy would be at a level 10, but it turns out his goes to 11.

Investments are taking a hit and I’m not sure when I should bail to cash. I’m two years from retirement and this is starting to suck.
Same...I'm afraid I won't be able to retire when I want because of investments...I want to retire on an upcycle. If the market is down I would prefer to just keep buying it low and wait for the next boom to retire.
 
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February jobs report had better be good. If it's not this panic will really start to cement.

It turns out, hundreds of thousands losing jobs, increases in material and labor costs, rate cuts going away, and uncertainty everywhere, is not a recipe for consumer confidence.

Nvidia earnings tomorrow will either (slightly) turn things around, or really push us off a cliff for awhile.

My wife is telling me that the clients at her business, even the Trump voters, are scaling back their spending on elective services. One has a business that is going to get crushed by Chinese tariffs. Another has subcontract work from clients with a government contract, and that's in jeopardy. My old roommate from the U of I is a McCain-turned-Harris voting Never-Trump Republican that's vice president of his fuel cell producing company. His company is now in the process of cutbacks due to future tariffs. (He's in China right now working on this with their Chinese partner company). I've never heard him rail on a politician like I heard him rail on Trump the other day. And he loved Secretary Pete. Sounds like he's ready to become an active Democrat.
 
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TESLA/Musk has me seriously confused. Conservatives have been anti-EV from the start, so they aren’t buying Tesla. Now Musk is doing everything he can to make liberals hate him; so they won’t want to buy Tesla, either.

It’s as if he’s deliberately trying to tank the stock.
Tesla sales have been going down for months in Europe from the charts etc I saw on the news. I will try to find a link
 
My wife is telling me that the clients at her business, even the Trump voters, are scaling back their spending on elective services. One has a business that is going to get crushed by Chinese tariffs. Another has subcontract work from clients with a government contract, and that's in jeopardy. My old roommate from the U of I is a McCain-turned-arris voting Never-Trump Republican that's vice president of his fuel cell producing company. His company is now in the process of cutbacks due to future tariffs. (He's in China right now working on this with their Chinese partner company). I've never heard him rail on a politician like I heard him rail on Trump the other day. And he loved Secretary Pete. Sounds like he's ready to become an active Democrat.
What is also abundantly clear, is a lot of real estate development is on hold. Right now a project can pencil one day, and then flip to red the next, particularly with the swings in materials (25% delta on materials can make or break a project) and rate issues. There remains a large amount of capital ready to deploy, but right now only the very bold are building through the FUD.
 
Same...I'm afraid I won't be able to retire when I want because of investments...I want to retire on an upcycle. If the market is down I would prefer to just keep buying it low and wait for the next boom to retire.
How about worrying about the people who only get a soc sec check and dont have any money.

These repubs are going to try to cripple or halt soc sec, they are fiends
 
How about worrying about the people who only get a soc sec check and dont have any money.

These repubs are going to try to cripple or halt soc sec, they are fiends
100%...though their voters tell us they won't. Literally had a Republican voter say this to me yesterday. "Ohhhh...your social security will be fine." Sure, MAGA.
 
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