I think looking at the later half of 2021, early 2022 for full scale vaccine production is most likely. With it taking another year or so to get most people vaccinated, and as Fauci said even then there’s no guarantee we reach herd immunity so the social distancing procedures will likely be here for many many years.
COVID-19 Immunity could be twice as high as believed
- Thread starter Finance85
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I think looking at the later half of 2021, early 2022 for full scale vaccine production is most likely. With it taking another year or so to get most people vaccinated, and as Fauci said even then there’s no guarantee we reach herd immunity so the social distancing procedures will likely be here for many many years.
You are like, the Eeyore of the virus. Cheer up dude. Maybe go get some tonight.
I'm hoping we're at least in the bottom of the 2nd, with an "ace closer" known as "vaccines" who can pitch the last two innings....
I think we might see vaccines in Q1, and ramping up, based on progress to date.
Of course, that depends on no setbacks with them.
Which is EXACTLY one of the main flaws of PCR testing; detecting genetic material from ‘similar’ organisms.
Like it’s inventor said, throw enough money at any one of a thousand (or more) of these viruses and you can create all sorts of nightmare scenarios.
Then again, he didn’t have an agenda.
If we got 4 options/4 chances, I like those odds better than just 1 "hail mary"....
I don't think there's ever going to be a threshold moment. I think we have to acknowledge at this point that many of the traditional methods you'd use to contain a pandemic (like contact tracing and isolated quarantines) just aren't going to work in the US. Places like NZ, Iceland, and to a lesser extent much of continental Europe can do this, but that moment has long since passed. There's nothing that we're realistically going to be able to do to get down to 1000 new cases a day in the US any time soon. Nothing. If we have 500k or 1,000,000 active cases, what are you supposed to do, quarantine the people they've come into contact with? That'd be like half the country. So to that end, I can get behind somewhat limited re-openings, simply because we're acknowledging failure, and making a surrender. The idea behind the spring shutdowns was buying time to study, develop testing, and prevent worst case scenarios. The best we can hope for is a combination of things: learn more about how it spreads, viable treatment methods that increase the survival rate, cheap, reliable and accurate testing readily available and make some adjustments for interactions (social distancing, mask wearing and the like). Obviously a vaccine considerably helps, but having a definitive "there is a vaccine!" moment where the world reverts back to February 28 is not realistic.
Yeah i know. That biochemist is obviously an idiot and this sort of thing is totally outside his realm of expertise
Only, they have a better track record on the validation of those.
If your contention is that we've over-estimated infections in this country, then the CFR on this is much much worse than it is for the flu.
Welp....there u go! That 'splains it!
The virus had that EXTRA DAY to replicate, while everyone was sleepin'!!!!
Weird. Mike Osterholm, one of the most renowned infectious disease experts in the world, claimed in March/April that we were just starting the SECOND inning.
It’s almost like they didn’t like the way the outcome of the first game was looking during the 7th inning stretch so they decided to just start it all over again.
They act like some of the 3rd graders I coach.
I was holed up in a guest room at my brother in law’s home in Maine, where the in-laws were celebrating Christmas week late.
Flawed though they may be, at least the antibody tests are being used in the manner for which they were designed: the PCR tests simply are not.
It is not my contention that infections are over-estimated, they are unreliable because the tests are unreliable. Redfield and Fauci released a study this spring that concluded coronavirus was a slightly more serious form of the flu. And they’re really smart, sooo....
What HAS been overstated, verified by Birx, Reynolds, Pritzker, et al, are the number of covid deaths: died ‘with’ = died ‘of’. Sad, really.
Pcr was never designed for this and is essentially being repurposed. My personal opinion is that therapy will outstrip vaccines for the foreseeable future.
You are acknowledging that Americans are overall so selfish that they are OK with a mass die off.
Pitiful as a society.
Yea, but we've already crossed the Rubicon on that. The only thing you could do to make this situation somewhat manageable from the top-down would be at least a month of TOTAL nationwide shutdown, everything except grocery stores. Obviously that is not going to happen. It's like when they open the Coralville dam to 20,000 cfps. When it gets to that point, the water that goes into the lake must go out and you just lose all control, the Corps can't do anything. Whatever the reasons are for how we reached this point, the truth of it is there's no going back now. Most every American will be exposed to this virus within the next year.
Not true. My wife and I can hermit for another year if we need to. It's unlikely for us to get it if we keep ordering takeout and avoid Sports Column. Those of us fortunate to be able to work from home have never had an easier time avoiding this.
EDIT: and no kids
True, some people are going to do that and have those options available. So I think I should modify my statement to say "most Americans will be exposed" instead of "most every American will be exposed".
There are a lot of viruses that can be asymptomatic once acquired. Herpes viruses are a common one, both HSV-1/2 (that cause cold sores and genital herpes) as well as Epstein-Barr virus (that causes mononucleosis). Cytomegalovirus is another example. Hepatitis B/C is another example where there are sometimes very mild prodromal symptoms followed by a long latent period before chronic diseases manifest.
For HSV-1 (cold sores), about 67% of the population has antibodies but many have never had a cold sore. For HSV-2 (genital herpes), about 20% of Americans have antibodies but many have never had genital herpes.
Here is the part all of this deliberately ignores because it is an election year. A vaccine isn't going to be the magic bullet most are claiming and could in fact cause more issues than it solves. The early vaccines for polio were absolutely destructive and Insure as hell am not going to be early to the party to get this one. Neither should you.
Nothing in science and medicine has changed since the 1950s...
