Current electoral voting polls in swing states

[BrunoMars420]

I went to use 538 for this and looked at Harris vs Trump straight up if poll available and if not the most recent Biden vs Trump. Even with the initial poll bump with the news and such, Kamala has a big uphill battle ahead of her if she is the nominee. Also noticed that if there are more then the 2 candidates (RFK) then it takes votes away from Kamala.

Trump was up 10 vs Biden in OH
Trump up 2 vs Kamala PA
Trump up 2 vs Kamala MI
Trump was up 1 vs Biden (I think this will go Kamala’s way)
Kamala up 2 Wisconsin
Trump up 8 vs Harris AZ
Trump up 10 vs Harris NV
Trump up 10 vs Harris FL
Trump up 2 vs Harris GA

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

100 days is a long time.

 

[BrunoMars420]

100 days is a long time.

Which is why I’m interested on how Kamala does after the initial bump in these states. Trump has a Hard ceiling but those independents in the swing states seem to be leaning his way.

The states Trump is winning currently and Kamala/Biden won are:
-Nevada (6 electoral votes)
-Georgia (16 electoral votes)
-Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)
-Michigan (16 electoral votes)
-Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
-Arizona (5 electoral votes)

If Trump flipped those he wins 305 - 233
It’s going to be very interesting how this all pays out

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

Which is why I’m interested on how Kamala does after the initial bump in these states. Trump has a Hard ceiling but those independents in the swing states seem to be leaning his way.

The states Trump is winning currently and Kamala/Biden won are:
-Nevada (6 electoral votes)
-Georgia (16 electoral votes)
-Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)
-Michigan (16 electoral votes)
-Minnesota (10 electoral votes)
-Arizona (5 electoral votes)

If Trump flipped those he wins 305 - 233
It’s going to be very interesting how this all pays out

On a live twitter poll, from a kranstien so account for his base, Trump has a 63% to 32% lead over Kamala with rfk taking the remainder. There are 70k votes.




And it's coming out that giant donation push we saw for the dems came from one giant donor.

The dems are the party of 15 people.




100 days is a long time.

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

I don't think these poll's will solidify till September, a couple weeks after the DNC.

There are a lot of "casual" voters that simply don't know a whole lot about Harris. Everyone knows Trump.

 

[BrunoMars420]

On a live twitter poll, from a kranstien so account for his base, Trump has a 63% to 32% lead over Kamala with rfk taking the remainder. There are 70k votes.




And it's coming out that giant donation push we saw for the dems came from one giant donor.

The dems are the party of 15 people.




100 days is a long time.

I’d need to see a link for that one giant donor but I assumed that the big donation push was planned. It was a really good job on the lefts part to get more donations imo

 

[StormHawk42]

The polling on her won’t solidify until after the DNC. Despite her being VP, a lot of people still don’t know much about her and her lousy 2020 campaign is a long time ago.

 

[Aardvark86]

The polling on her won’t solidify until after the DNC. Despite her being VP, a lot of people still don’t know much about her and her lousy 2020 campaign is a long time ago.

correct; interesting thing is that in the weird way, that she is a blank slate to most people presents opportunity (for both sides) to define her. Her public comment today about the flag burnings at union station is surely very deliberate with that in mind, particularly in light of her other comments vis. Netanyahu, etc.

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

correct; interesting thing is that in the weird way, that she is a blank slate to most people presents opportunity (for both sides) to define her. Her public comment today about the flag burnings at union station is surely very deliberate with that in mind, particularly in light of her other comments vis. Netanyahu, etc.

How was the commute in? Bigsly have to

 

[Aardvark86]

How was the commute in? Bigsly have to

smooth sailing via bus. no way i could climb all the steps at Roslyn metro as I ran into an old fraternity brother last night and I ended up going over to his place and splitting two bottles of pinot.

 

[Whiskeydeltadeltatango]

smooth sailing via bus. no way i could climb all the steps at Roslyn metro as I ran into an old fraternity brother last night and I ended up going over to his place and splitting two bottles of pinot.

May the odds be ever in your favor.

 

[83Hawk]

Trump is toast. Kamala will get at least 300 electoral votes. You head it here first!

 

[sober_teacher]

Polls this week just have to be some of the weirdest possible, right? You’d normally see a post-convention bump to some extent for Trump, but that was probably cancelled out by the Biden/harris news yes?

Now we’ve got Harris racing to get out and campaign, define herself properly as her own candidate now before Trumps campaign can figure out how they want to attack her. Frankly, if what they’ve shown so far this week is any indicator, I think they’re in trouble.

Agreed that we probably don’t see meaningful polls until after the DNC at this point.

 

[Aardvark86]

Polls this week just have to be some of the weirdest possible, right? You’d normally see a post-convention bump to some extent for Trump, but that was probably cancelled out by the Biden/harris news yes?

Now we’ve got Harris racing to get out and campaign, define herself properly as her own candidate now before Trumps campaign can figure out how they want to attack her. Frankly, if what they’ve shown so far this week is any indicator, I think they’re in trouble.

Agreed that we probably don’t see meaningful polls until after the DNC at this point.

All of this and I also just wonder whether bumps will really exist in this campaign given how few undecideds there are.