Dennis Dodd reports: B1G interest in Pac-12 teams is waning

AuroraHawk

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Dodd is reporting that the B1G's consideration of Stanford, Washington, Cal and/or Oregon is fading. Why? Apparently the rightsholders (translation: TV networks) are not willing to pay an extra $80M to $100M for each add'l team. The logical conclusion is that the rightsholders don't believe that some combination of those four teams would generate enough add'l revenue to cover the cost.

Since the addition of USC and UCLA was announced as the B1G was negotiating the new TV deal, it seems pretty clear to me that the rightsholders assured the B1G that the per school pay out would only increase if USC and UCLA were added to the mix.

If (and I stress "if") what he is hearing is accurate, that likely means that the B1G's new TV deal will be anywhere from $1.2B/year ($80M per school) to $1.6B/year ($100M per school).

It got me thinking. Let's say that the rightsholders gave this offer "we will pay all 2024 B1G conference teams $80M per year for a $1.2B yearly package BUT we'd be willing to pay $100M to each B1G school for a $1.6B package IF the B1G added Notre Dame and Oregon but eliminated two teams." Would the B1G members go for that? If not for $100M/year per school, is there a yearly payout number that would convince B1G members to shed existing schools?

Put another way, if the rightsholders said something to the effect of "we could certainly sweeten the yearly payout to each school significantly if $80M/year didn't have to be allocated to (just for example) Northwestern," might that gain some traction?

Finally, if there is a calculus as to whether teams/schools individually bring value to the rightsholders, I'd love to see the internal numbers as to what "value" they attribute to each team/school. In other words, how much would the rightsholders pay for the B1G if Purdue and Maryland jumped to the ACC or how much would the rightsholders pay for the B1G if Michigan and OSU jumped to the SEC? The data would be quite interesting.
 
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BonzoFury

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Dodd is reporting that the B1G's consideration of Stanford, Washington, Cal and/or Oregon is fading. Why? Apparently the rightsholders (translation: TV networks) are not willing to pay an extra $80M to $100M for each add'l team. The logical conclusion is that the rightsholders don't believe that some combination of those four teams would generate enough add'l revenue to cover the cost.

Since the addition of USC and UCLA was announced as the B1G was negotiating the new TV deal, it seems pretty clear to me that the rightsholders assured the B1G that the per school pay out would only increase if USC and UCLA were added to the mix.

If (and I stress "if") what he is hearing is accurate, that likely means that the B1G's new TV deal will be anywhere from $1.2B/year ($80M per school) to $1.6B/year ($100M per school).

It got me thinking. Let's say that the rightsholders gave this offer "we will pay all 2024 B1G conference teams $80M per year for a $1.2B yearly package BUT we'd be willing to pay $100M to each B1G school for a $1.6B package IF the B1G added Notre Dame and Oregon but eliminated two teams." Would the B1G members go for that? If not for $100M/year per school, is there a yearly payout number that would convince B1G members to shed existing schools?

Put another way, if the rightsholders said something to the effect of "we could certainly sweeten the yearly payout to each school significantly if $80M/year didn't have to be allocated to (just for example) Northwestern," might that gain some traction?

Finally, if there is a calculus as to whether teams/schools individually bring value to the rightsholders, I'd love to see the internal numbers as to what "value" they attribute to each team/school. In other words, how much would the rightsholders pay for the B1G if Purdue and Maryland jumped to the ACC or how much would the rightsholders pay for the B1G if Michigan and OSU jumped to the SEC? The data would be quite interesting.
If there was an add/drop.... Add ND, drop Nebraska. Lock it down.
 

kceasthawk

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Dodd is reporting that the B1G's consideration of Stanford, Washington, Cal and/or Oregon is fading. Why? Apparently the rightsholders (translation: TV networks) are not willing to pay an extra $80M to $100M for each add'l team. The logical conclusion is that the rightsholders don't believe that some combination of those four teams would generate enough add'l revenue to cover the cost.

Since the addition of USC and UCLA was announced as the B1G was negotiating the new TV deal, it seems pretty clear to me that the rightsholders assured the B1G that the per school pay out would only increase if USC and UCLA were added to the mix.

If (and I stress "if") what he is hearing is accurate, that likely means that the B1G's new TV deal will be anywhere from $1.2B/year ($80M per school) to $1.6B/year ($100M per school).

It got me thinking. Let's say that the rightsholders gave this offer "we will pay all 2024 B1G conference teams $80M per year for a $1.2B yearly package BUT we'd be willing to pay $100M to each B1G school for a $1.6B package IF the B1G added Notre Dame and Oregon but eliminated two teams." Would the B1G members go for that? If not for $100M/year per school, is there a yearly payout number that would convince B1G members to shed existing schools?

Put another way, if the rightsholders said something to the effect of "we could certainly sweeten the yearly payout to each school significantly if $80M/year didn't have to be allocated to (just for example) Northwestern," might that gain some traction?

Finally, if there is a calculus as to whether teams/schools individually bring value to the rightsholders, I'd love to see the internal numbers as to what "value" they attribute to each team/school. In other words, how much would the rightsholders pay for the B1G if Purdue and Maryland jumped to the ACC or how much would the rightsholders pay for the B1G if Michigan and OSU jumped to the SEC? The data would be quite interesting.
I think the bigger question is does a vote by member schools have to be unanimous, a majority, or how many members to pass. Lets face it. Their are 7 or 8 schools who would NEVER vote to start dropping schools, because they could be next. Frankly, I don't see anyway that happens. , I think the only way the BIG gets retooled is if OSU and Michigan decided to leave for some supposed greener pastures.....
 

BurgHawk87

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What's the infatuation with "dropping" schools? Especially from supposed Iowa fans. In the overall picture Iowa isn't untouchable from such conversations. Advocate enough for the big ten to cut schools and you just may get your wish, with your school being the one to go.
 

Packer54

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It's ND and "someone else" at some point and I think that may be it. Nobody will be dropped imho.
 

fezzador

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What's the infatuation with "dropping" schools? Especially from supposed Iowa fans. In the overall picture Iowa isn't untouchable from such conversations. Advocate enough for the big ten to cut schools and you just may get your wish, with your school being the one to go.
Iowa is pretty safe. Despite being well outside of any major media markets it still generates more sports revenue and attracts more eyeballs than at least half the B1G.

Nebraska football is literally the only game in town (or the state), even when they’re bad. The brand still has some cache, but when people stop paying attention (I’m sure plenty of folks tune in just to see N lose, but the schadenfreude isn’t going to last forever. Either N gets its act together and finally gets a competitive team on the field, or they’ll fade away and no one will care). I doubt the latter will happen, with NIL, N won’t even have to cheat to win.
 
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kceasthawk

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What's the infatuation with "dropping" schools? Especially from supposed Iowa fans. In the overall picture Iowa isn't untouchable from such conversations. Advocate enough for the big ten to cut schools and you just may get your wish, with your school being the one to go.
I don't think anyone here is advocating for that, it's more like their scared waiting for the other shoe to drop. As I said though any such action would require a vote of members, and there is no way they'd get a majority of BIG schools to vote yes to drop anybody. There are too many schools who could be in the "who's next" column to ever go down that road.....
 

kceasthawk

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Would schools like Oregon and Standford ever accept a lesser financial offer to the B1G? In other words they can get paid MORE than in the PAC but LESS than current B1G members.
Maybe, but as others have posted, this is a can of worms that few schools in the BIG, (including Iowa) want opened. You do that, and then maybe in the next round of contract talks you get OSU and Michigan pulling a Texas and wanting unequal shares, since there is now a precedent..
 
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LGEND24

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I don't think anyone here is advocating for that, it's more like their scared waiting for the other shoe to drop. As I said though any such action would require a vote of members, and there is no way they'd get a majority of BIG schools to vote yes to drop anybody. There are too many schools who could be in the "who's next" column to ever go down that road.....
There have been a lot of people on here advocating for the removal of Nebraska, Rutgers and Maryland.
 

theiacowtipper

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I think the bigger question is does a vote by member schools have to be unanimous, a majority, or how many members to pass. Lets face it. Their are 7 or 8 schools who would NEVER vote to start dropping schools, because they could be next. Frankly, I don't see anyway that happens. , I think the only way the BIG gets retooled is if OSU and Michigan decided to leave for some supposed greener pastures.....
Well I don’t think it could ever be unanimous. Would Rutgers vote to drop Rutgers?
 

GoUIowa

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Drop the game we’ve been winning annualy. Genius.
Some people forget in this big game of Risk/Monopoly, we have to actually play the schedule with these teams. So yeah, let’s go get Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, and, say, Oregon while we’re at it (note sarcasm).
 

kceasthawk

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Well I don’t think it could ever be unanimous. Would Rutgers vote to drop Rutgers?
Kind of my point. It would have to be more then just a majority, and as I said Would you really vote to drop NW, Rutgers, or Maryland, if your Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Purdue, or Minnesota? I think not.....
 

mikesright

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Would schools like Oregon and Standford ever accept a lesser financial offer to the B1G? In other words they can get paid MORE than in the PAC but LESS than current B1G members.

Not likely to ever even be offered but just thinking outside the bun.
The reason that the Big Ten won’t be doing that is that even if the networks would give you more money, its still dilutive to the product. The goal to get paid big time by the networks is get more games with 4m plus viewers. And once you let someone in to the conference, they’re never getting out.

I don’t think the B1G will move to get any other west coast team anytime soon because there isn’t a big enough payday to make up for stretching the footprint like there is with USC/UCLA. They also don’t want to damage the Pac 12 any further, that conference still is important to the B1G collaboratively with the Rose Bowl and academically.

The biggest payoff is Notre Dame and a Florida team. I’m guessing that will be their next move. I can’t see the ACC lasting long with them so far behind on media rights.
 
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Hawk_4shur

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One effort to rank B1G football teams by viewership. Like all things, it's probably flawed.

The Hawks come in at a very respectable #21. Right behind them at #22 is Nebby.

There are 5 B1G football programs below NW at #40. (Minny, MD, PU, Illinois and Rutgers). Maryland and Rutgers are investments in huge TV markets. If they can generate some excitement they could certainly move up quickly. Minnesota (#43) competes with the pros. Unless Illinois (#70) captures the Chicago or STL audiences, there's not much else for them.

BTW, UCLA is #32 and USC is #16.

Outside of the investments in MD and Rut, Purdue and Illinois are the weakest in football. But, I'll bet their basketball #'s are pretty good.

Bottom line - I don't think anybody is getting kicked out of the B1G.. They all bring something to the table.
 
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isuisshit

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How does dennis dodd still have a job? Jobs in the media must come with tenure.
 
Maybe, but as others have posted, this is a can of worms that few schools in the BIG, (including Iowa) want opened. You do that, and then maybe in the next round of contract talks you get OSU and Michigan pulling a Texas and wanting unequal shares, since there is now a precedent..
Good point and certainly possible that the precedent really shakes things up, not ideal.

This is an interesting ranking system and includes metrics like attendance, tv viewership, etc.

Based on this, there are only a few teams that would even be under consideration for the B1G before even factoring in fit. (I stopped at #30, which was very close to UCLA).

ND
Clemson
Florida State

Miami
Washington
Oregon

Va Tech
West Virginia

 
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uihawk82

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What's the infatuation with "dropping" schools? Especially from supposed Iowa fans. In the overall picture Iowa isn't untouchable from such conversations. Advocate enough for the big ten to cut schools and you just may get your wish, with your school being the one to go.
I agree with Fessdor that Iowa is pretty safe. Kinnick Stadium is a draw for away fans and TV. It is a large enough stadium and the TV people rave about its atmosphere on the old Tube. The Hawks seem to upset plenty of top teams at home so there is a lot of interest in those types of games.

The Univ itself is a very good teaching and research school and a roughly 100 year member of the Big. A few years back Iowa was ranked pretty high for the number of fans around the nation and eyeballs on their games and that is the main thing that counts. I mean home football games at jNW, Illinois, IU, Purdue and Minny do not have near the excitement as at Kinnick. If you have been to those stadiums I mentioned for games they are not near as nice or with the crowd excitement as Kinnick.
 

nbanflfactory

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What's the infatuation with "dropping" schools? Especially from supposed Iowa fans. In the overall picture Iowa isn't untouchable from such conversations. Advocate enough for the big ten to cut schools and you just may get your wish, with your school being the one to go.
The more cfb works towards 1 super conference, I do agree with you :(

But you can't really compare Iowa and neb since neb has joined, especially if you count bball and fball. That also doesn't factor in that neb is still fairly new to the conf.
 

nbanflfactory

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Some people forget in this big game of Risk/Monopoly, we have to actually play the schedule with these teams. So yeah, let’s go get Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, and, say, Oregon while we’re at it (note sarcasm).
Most will be in the east so no worries :)
 

AuroraHawk

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The interest was never there, it was "reported" by people like Dodds.

If the B1G wanted those other schools, they would have already been added. It is obvious they are revenue dilutive.

The B1G isn't removing members to complete this deal.

The interest would be there if it increased the per school payout. This is nothing more than dollars/cents. The rightsholders are dictating the decision-making.
 

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