Dissecting the Hawkeyes' postseason case with college baseball experts

[Franisdaman]

After reading this, what are your thoughts? Iowa, of course, is hoping to make its third regional appearance in the last four years under Rick Heller and is planted right in the middle of the race.

NOTE: the 2 experts think Iowa needs to take at least 2 of 3 against OK State because of the weak opponents that follow (7 games left against teams outside the top 200 RPI).

And the final quote of the article: The metrics (right now): As a Big Ten team that has actually played and beaten the good teams in the league, I think it could get them in. But it would be a borderline case that could go either way. That’s really what we’re looking at here.

LINK to whole story: https://www.hawkcentral.com/story/s...ason-case-college-baseball-experts/576813002/

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Losing the Missouri game was huge because winning would have gave Iowa breathing room RPI wise. We'd probably be talking an RPI of 38-40 now instead of 51. Now Iowa is in a situation where we need to take 2/3 vs Oklahoma State. Then it's a big IF with our pitching avoid a melt down against PSU or NW. NW is better than their record and will not be easy. PSU has had some close ones too.

My gut tells me we will enter the B1G tournament on the outside looking in unless we win out. Iowa will want to draw a Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio State in the B1G tournament.

 

[Couppee]

If Iowa did not lose Cole, I would have put their chances at better than 50%. Now with him out, it really puts the pressure on the pitching staff.

Who will be Iowa's third starter?

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Losing the Missouri game was huge because winning would have gave Iowa breathing room RPI wise. We'd probably be talking an RPI of 38-40 now instead of 51. Now Iowa is in a situation where we need to take 2/3 vs Oklahoma State. Then it's a big IF with our pitching avoid a melt down against PSU or NW. NW is better than their record and will not be easy. PSU has had some close ones too.

My gut tells me we will enter the B1G tournament on the outside looking in unless we win out. Iowa will want to draw a Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio State in the B1G tournament.

Bau.

 

[hawkeye bb n fb fan]

Losing the Missouri game was huge because winning would have gave Iowa breathing room RPI wise. We'd probably be talking an RPI of 38-40 now instead of 51. Now Iowa is in a situation where we need to take 2/3 vs Oklahoma State. Then it's a big IF with our pitching avoid a melt down against PSU or NW. NW is better than their record and will not be easy. PSU has had some close ones too.

My gut tells me we will enter the B1G tournament on the outside looking in unless we win out. Iowa will want to draw a Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio State in the B1G tournament.

You think we need to win the BIG Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament?

 

[non-poster]

You think we need to win the BIG Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament?

Yes.

 

[whatsup13579er]

That was a really good article.

I think if Iowa goes:
3-0, 3-0, 3-0 they are in, no doubt.
3-0, 2-1, 3-0 they are in.
2-1, 3-0, 3-0 they are in.
2-1, 2-1, 3-0 they are probably in.
1-2, 3-0, 3-0 they are probably in.
1-2, 2-1, 3-0 they need a big win in the tourney.
1-2, 2-1, 2-1 they need to win the tourney.

I don't think they can overcome the RPI hit with a loss at home to PSU. A loss at jNW would hurt but at least it is on the road.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

You think we need to win the BIG Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament?

Ask me after this weekend. If Iowa wins out then they should be in IMO.

If they have one loss and it's to Okie State, they should be in. If they have two losses to Okie State then work to do.

Iowa CANNOT lose to the 200+ RPI schools. If we drop a road game to NW, we will have work to do. Losing to WIU or PSU and we almost have to win the tournament.

At this point we want a draw where we face Minnesota, Indiana because that will be a chance to boost our RPI more, espcially if we lose the Okie State series and/or drop a game to the 200+ rpi teams.

 

[non-poster]

Two key points--

1) That article was a good breakdown of Iowa's current situation, but only as it relates to them. It is too limited in its scope and does not take into consideration or make any comparison to how the Hawkeyes stack up against other team's across the country that are also on the bubble.

On the heels of that--

2) The conversation among fans is almost strictly about Iowa's remaining schedule, but winning the series this weekend against Okie St. will not an automatic qualifier. A best case scenario would be to win the last 3 regular series. Even then Iowa would still need to beat at least two Top 50 RPI teams in the BIG Tournament to feel somewhat good about their chances.

In talking with a couple people who have experience with the selection process, 3 Big Ten teams are considered locks (barring a complete meltdown) Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota. In reality, probably only one more of the following would receive a bid if they finish the season strong and make a good run in the tournament--Illinois, Purdue, OSU, Iowa.

The Illini finish out vs. OSU, at Michigan and vs. Nebraska. The Buckeyes are at Illinois, host Purdue and are at MSU.

The Boilers host Northwestern, are at OSU and host Michigan. Any one of those three have the potential to separate themselves from the pack and look a lot better to the selection committee.

That is just the scenario for the Big Ten.

All Iowa can do right now is beat who is on their remaining schedule. But remember they don't exist in a vacuum.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Two key points--

1) That article was a good breakdown of Iowa's current situation, but only as it relates to them. It is too limited in its scope and does not take into consideration or make any comparison to how the Hawkeyes stack up against other team's across the country that are also on the bubble.

On the heels of that--

2) The conversation among fans is almost strictly about Iowa's remaining schedule, but winning the series this weekend against Okie St. will not an automatic qualifier. A best case scenario would be to win the last 3 regular series. Even then Iowa would still need to beat at least two Top 50 RPI teams in the BIG Tournament to feel somewhat good about their chances.

In talking with a couple people who have experience with the selection process, 3 Big Ten teams are considered locks (barring a complete meltdown) Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota. In reality, probably only one more of the following would receive a bid if they finish the season strong and make a good run in the tournament--Illinois, Purdue, OSU, Iowa.

The Illini finish out vs. OSU, at Michigan and vs. Nebraska. The Buckeyes are at Illinois, host Purdue and are at MSU.

The Boilers host Northwestern, are at OSU and host Michigan. Any one of those three have the potential to separate themselves from the pack and look a lot better to the selection committee.

That is just the scenario for the Big Ten.

All Iowa can do right now is beat who is on their remaining schedule. But remember they don't exist in a vacuum.

I have a big problem with Michigan being a lock. Yeah they are in first in the B1G. Yeah they won 20 straight, but against who? Weren't almost all of them 200+ RPI?

 

[whatsup13579er]

I have a big problem with Michigan being a lock. Yeah they are in first in the B1G. Yeah they won 20 straight, but against who? Weren't almost all of them 200+ RPI?

Michigan (57) could easily lose the series' to Illinois (44) and Purdue (54) and they play at Rutgers (157) along with midweek games against Mich State (196) and C Mich (217). They could easily drop their RPI to around 70 and be right in the middle of the B1G standings with a record around 16-7, a half game ahead of Iowa if they finish 6-0.

 

[non-poster]

I have a big problem with Michigan being a lock. Yeah they are in first in the B1G. Yeah they won 20 straight, but against who? Weren't almost all of them 200+ RPI?

Legit point. They do have a win early against then #8 Stanford....now #1 in the nation in RPI.

Playing Arizona #50 RPI and San Diego State #46 definitely helped pull up an otherwise extremely weak non-con schedule.

But they are still in control of their own destiny. That's why I said barring a complete meltdown. I was in Ann Arbor for their game vs. E. Michigan on Tuesday night. Both Donovan and Thomas left the contest with injuries. Neither played the following night in Ypslanti. I haven't heard on the status of either, but it could make things interesting over the next 3 weekends.

 

[hawkeye bb n fb fan]

That was a really good article.

I think if Iowa goes:
3-0, 3-0, 3-0 they are in, no doubt.
3-0, 2-1, 3-0 they are in.
2-1, 3-0, 3-0 they are in.
2-1, 2-1, 3-0 they are probably in.
1-2, 3-0, 3-0 they are probably in.
1-2, 2-1, 3-0 they need a big win in the tourney.
1-2, 2-1, 2-1 they need to win the tourney.

I don't think they can overcome the RPI hit with a loss at home to PSU. A loss at jNW would hurt but at least it is on the road.

Ask me after this weekend. If Iowa wins out then they should be in IMO.

If they have one loss and it's to Okie State, they should be in. If they have two losses to Okie State then work to do.

Iowa CANNOT lose to the 200+ RPI schools. If we drop a road game to NW, we will have work to do. Losing to WIU or PSU and we almost have to win the tournament.

At this point we want a draw where we face Minnesota, Indiana because that will be a chance to boost our RPI more, espcially if we lose the Okie State series and/or drop a game to the 200+ rpi teams.

Agreed

 

[Franisdaman]

Michigan (57) could easily lose the series' to Illinois (44) and Purdue (54) and they play at Rutgers (157) along with midweek games against Mich State (196) and C Mich (217). They could easily drop their RPI to around 70 and be right in the middle of the B1G standings with a record around 16-7, a half game ahead of Iowa if they finish 6-0.

Rutgers is routing Michigan today, Friday, 15-7 heading to the 9th inning

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Rutgers is routing Michigan today, Friday, 15-7 heading to the 9th inning

Anything to keep Iowa down, I suppose.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Btw guys I saw that Missouri box score...........didn't think I would see it, did ya.

You know what that is?........Do ya?.......


Bau.

 

[Franisdaman]

Kendall Rogers is the Managing Editor for @d1baseball
kendall@d1baseball.com
http://d1baseball.com



Here is what he tweeted (and what Iowa Baseball Retweeted):


Kendall Rogers‏Verified account@KendallRogers 23h23 hours ago


So, the Big 12 leader (Oklahoma State) by several games is getting pummeled at #Iowa. That’s a rough weekend for that league. Barring a meltdown, a bid solidifier for @UIBaseball as well.



He also said this:

Kendall Rogers‏Verified account@KendallRogers 15h15 hours ago
Kendall Rogers Retweeted glen clark

RPI is fickle....Hell, Iowa took two of three from Oklahoma State and dropped four spots over the past week.

 

[non-poster]

I posted this in the Lounge last night, but think it is needed here as well.

After Sunday's big win everyone needs to remember the series win over Okie State was needed just to stay in the hunt for an at-large birth. All the respect in the world to Kendall Rogers (and he was careful to add the qualifier "barring a meltdown") but Iowa is not a lock as of now.

I spoke to a couple of people in the know (one who has participated in the past) regarding the selection process. As of the first weekend in May here is a solid look at the lay of the land--

Auto Qualifiers/Conference Champions--31
Non-champions but strong enough resumes to be guaranteed--22
At-Large Bubble Bids--11

As of now The SEC has 8 teams and could have as many as 10 if South Carolina or Mississippi St. win their last 2 regular series. LSU was a long-shot going into this weekend vs. #4 Arkansas, but after winning the series, they still have a shot.

Other bubble teams like Louisville, Cal and LA Tech are also expected to take one of those spots.

From the Big Ten--Ohio St. most likely played their way in to an at large bid this weekend with their series win over Illinois. Those I spoke with think the Big Ten will not get more than 4 bids. That would leave Iowa, Illinois and Michigan fighting for that last spot. Neither thought Purdue would receive an at large bid.

I know many on the boards have only begun to take an interest in Iowa Baseball over the last handful of years since Coach Heller has shown great success. And most still don't really follow the game beyond the Big Ten, but by most reputable publications standards there were still roughly 2-dozen bubble teams across the country who are all fighting for one of those approximate 11 "bubble bids".

While Iowa is in control of their own destiny to a point, this isn't happening in a vacuum.

Best case scenario--The Hawkeyes win (preferably sweep) their last two regular series AND get a couple wins over a Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio St. in the conference tournament. If that happens, then they are likely going to be making plans for the regionals.

 

[DodgerHawki]

I posted this in the Lounge last night, but think it is needed here as well.

After Sunday's big win everyone needs to remember the series win over Okie State was needed just to stay in the hunt for an at-large birth. All the respect in the world to Kendall Rogers (and he was careful to add the qualifier "barring a meltdown") but Iowa is not a lock as of now.

I spoke to a couple of people in the know (one who has participated in the past) regarding the selection process. As of the first weekend in May here is a solid look at the lay of the land--

Auto Qualifiers/Conference Champions--31
Non-champions but strong enough resumes to be guaranteed--22
At-Large Bubble Bids--11

As of now The SEC has 8 teams and could have as many as 10 if South Carolina or Mississippi St. win their last 2 regular series. LSU was a long-shot going into this weekend vs. #4 Arkansas, but after winning the series, they still have a shot.

Other bubble teams like Louisville, Cal and LA Tech are also expected to take one of those spots.

From the Big Ten--Ohio St. most likely played their way in to an at large bid this weekend with their series win over Illinois. Those I spoke with think the Big Ten will not get more than 4 bids. That would leave Iowa, Illinois and Michigan fighting for that last spot. Neither thought Purdue would receive an at large bid.

I know many on the boards have only begun to take an interest in Iowa Baseball over the last handful of years since Coach Heller has shown great success. And most still don't really follow the game beyond the Big Ten, but by most reputable publications standards there were still roughly 2-dozen bubble teams across the country who are all fighting for one of those approximate 11 "bubble bids".

While Iowa is in control of their own destiny to a point, this isn't happening in a vacuum.

Best case scenario--The Hawkeyes win (preferably sweep) their last two regular series AND get a couple wins over a Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio St. in the conference tournament. If that happens, then they are likely going to be making plans for the regionals.

Thanks for the additional context. Agreed that Iowa is far from a lock. The series win against Okie State was needed to keep Iowa in the conversation. They are in a position where if they play well to close out the season they shouldn't need to win the Big 10 tourney to get in (like last year). But lose a series to Northwestern or Penn State and that's likely the situation.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Yes.

No.

 

[non-poster]

After this weekend.

It depends.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

After this weekend.

It depends.

How many teams do they take? 48?

Let's face it. There are not 48 better programs than Iowa. Using metrics and other polished-up sh** like RPI is just an excuse to try to keep them out.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

How many teams do they take? 48?

Let's face it. There are not 48 better programs than Iowa. Using metrics and other polished-up sh** like RPI is just an excuse to try to keep them out.

64

Conference tournament = auto qualifiers, etc...

Heck, Mizzou might not even make the SEC tournament and are a ncaa tournament lock at this point

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

Kendall Rogers says he THINKS Iowa gets in at this point if we pad our conference record, but the RPI of 50 concerns him.

So basically despite what this team has done all season, if we drop one game the rest of the year in the regular season we are out unless we boost it a bit in the B1G tournament.

 

[non-poster]

How many teams do they take? 48?

Let's face it. There are not 48 better programs than Iowa. Using metrics and other polished-up sh** like RPI is just an excuse to try to keep them out.

You're trolling.

BAU.

 

[non-poster]

64

Conference tournament = auto qualifiers, etc...

Heck, Mizzou might not even make the SEC tournament and are a ncaa tournament lock at this point

Missouri is not a lock for the NCAA's right now. They finish at S. Carolina and host Tennessee. Their RPI will take a hit. A good scenario for them would be 33-21 overall and a sub .500 conference record. If they fail to make the conference tournament, the selection committee will not look favorably on that. It also would mean S. Carolina and likely LSU would both leapfrog them.

Right now there are 8 SEC teams predicted in to regionals...possibly 10 with the scenario laid out in my earlier post. Missouri needs to win their last 2 regular season series to feel good about a bid.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Kendall Rogers says he THINKS Iowa gets in at this point if we pad our conference record, but the RPI of 50 concerns him.

So basically despite what this team has done all season, if we drop one game the rest of the year in the regular season we are out unless we boost it a bit in the B1G tournament.

Well, when your RPI is 50 you have work to do. Iowa's non-con outside of the series win over Okie State hasn't been great. Got swept at UNLV, lost to Missouri State. Best non-con win outside of Okie State is Bradley.

Iowa needed to have all the good teams in the conference on its schedule to help build the resume. Hawks have produced with split against Indiana, winning series against Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan.

Iowa has everything in front of it. Winning both series against Northwestern and Penn State, and some noise in the BTT and should/could be okay. It would be better if Iowa went 5-1 or 6-0 the final 2 weekends. There is no grand conspiracy. Iowa has put itself in a position to get an at-large berth. Right where they want to be.

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

You're trolling.

BAU.

And?.........

 

[EvilMonkeyInTheCloset]

Well, when your RPI is 50 you have work to do. Iowa's non-con outside of the series win over Okie State hasn't been great. Got swept at UNLV, lost to Missouri State. Best non-con win outside of Okie State is Bradley.

Iowa needed to have all the good teams in the conference on its schedule to help build the resume. Hawks have produced with split against Indiana, winning series against Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan.

Iowa has everything in front of it. Winning both series against Northwestern and Penn State, and some noise in the BTT and should/could be okay. It would be better if Iowa went 5-1 or 6-0 the final 2 weekends. There is no grand conspiracy. Iowa has put itself in a position to get an at-large berth. Right where they want to be.

Oh no, there's a grand conspiracy. Same people who don't want to see Iowa play for championships in football are hoping they don't make too much noise in baseball. Too much money lost in marketing on their end, or so they believe. We tell them they're wrong all the time, but they're so full of sh** they can't see how much good it is for college athletics to have a nationally relevant and successful Iowa program.

All it is is excuses.

 

[Franisdaman]

well, we at least did what we needed to do vs Ok State: we took 2 of 3.

Now we have to take care of these last 7 games vs weak opponents.

And, according to Baseball America, we make the Field of 64.

Check it out here:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/college-baseball-projected-field-of-64-5918/