Padilla was never afforded the same opportunity to develop as a QB. It's a fact that Petras had 20x the gametime snaps, yet showed little improvement throughout. It's also a fact that Padilla never started a game where we scored single digits. Petras did that like 6 times. You fixate on incompletions as a measuring stick, but those can come from WR drops and sack avoidance. What about the ability to avoid negative plays and put together occasional scoring drives? He wasn't "terrible" and he was only "beaten out" by Petras in the mind of union card Ferentz.
Does Padilla Get Left Out in the Cold?
- Thread starter IowasLaw
- Start date
A
anon_b29nm7v7dwp6r
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Petras was arguably the worst Iowa starting QB in the past 40 years. Seems like a great kid, but he should not have been a three year starter.
You tend to focus on incompletions when a QBs job is to complete passes. And you can afford the same logic to Petras regarding drops. As bad as he was, he at least completed more than half his passes.
Here's a new measuring stick: in 2021, both Padilla and Petras had Charlie Jones to throw the ball to. Which QB did Jones have the most yards per play with? The qb who gets our best player the football the most wins.
Someone really good at stats can go back and I guarantee you Charlie had 2x the production in games that Padilla played because Petras was too busy getting sacked or locking onto La Porta.
Someone really good at stats can go back and I guarantee you Charlie had 2x the production in games that Padilla played because Petras was too busy getting sacked or locking onto La Porta.
Sorry, Padilla can’t take credit for anything if they are part of the ‘PP and Levar crowd.
There really is NO reason to continue beating this dead horse. What we know is that neither guy played consistently well under the circumstances given him with the supporting cast, plays called etc... We can go on and on about what Padilla MAY have done somewhat better if had been the full time starter, but thats nothing more then speculating at this point. Maybe he'd have been somewhat better, and maybe not. Maybe he'd have turned it over more, (as his td/int ratio suggests) an maybe he would have settled in with more time. Maybe if he had started against the really good teams we'd have been crushed, instead of winning like against #4 PSU, and maybe we still win. Maybe this and maybe that isn't proof of anything but that people didn't like the guy who was QB1 so we'll just act like the #2 guy HAD to be better, even though it sure didn't look like it when he played in 6-8 games in the last two seasons.
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Padilla had two big passes like each 40 yards plus to Chuck Sizzle against Minnesota.
He completed 6 passes each in both his starts against Illinois and Nebraska in 2021 where the team scored 33 and 28 points respectively. That IS terrible and really not a contribution to the end results.
Charlie Jones averaged 1.6 receptions PER GAME in 2021. Someone really, really "good" with stats could create your story for you
Would you rather have a throw away/incompletion or a sack?
Good news for him.
Wish him all the best!
So I decided to take an hour and make these clips showing all the "horrible" incompletions the Padilla haters keep referencing. These are all 11 from the Illinois game. Our elite receiving corps had a fantastic day being slow, clumsy, and not catching a damn thing.
bit late, but drop
throwaway, receiver fell down
drop
throwaway
drop, ball had to come out there because of an unblocked blitzer, Goodson wasn't ready
drop
another look
receiver hooked, no call
drop
drop
drop
deep pick
bit late, but drop
throwaway, receiver fell down
drop
throwaway
drop, ball had to come out there because of an unblocked blitzer, Goodson wasn't ready
drop
another look
receiver hooked, no call
drop
drop
drop
deep pick
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Lmao and this changes what about his performance exactly?So I decided to take an hour and make these clips showing all the "horrible" incompletions the Padilla haters keep referencing. These are all 11 from the Illinois game. Our elite receiving corps had a fantastic day being slow, clumsy, and not catching a damn thing.
bit late, but drop
throwaway, receiver fell down
drop
throwaway
drop, ball had to come out there because of an unblocked blitzer, Goodson wasn't ready
drop
another look
receiver hooked, no call
drop
drop
drop
deep pick
You act as if WRs didn't drop Petras' passes too. And that pick is an absolutely awful decision.
The fact remains that with the same supporting cast as Petras he was still far worse.
Oh, they absolutely dropped passes from Petras as well. The difference is, Petras would regularly throw uncatchable balls and take deep sacks.
The average Petras incompletion looked more like this:
Petras also went up against a very similar Illinois defense this year and scored 6 points despite throwing 36 times and having far more starts. Anyone with eyes can see that Padilla was far more accurate and that the stats deceived because our receivers are worse than our qbs, and anything less than a perfect ball gets dropped. Petras is sunk cost fallacy personified. The more starts he got, the less likely anyone else was going to replace him.
The average Petras incompletion looked more like this:
Petras also went up against a very similar Illinois defense this year and scored 6 points despite throwing 36 times and having far more starts. Anyone with eyes can see that Padilla was far more accurate and that the stats deceived because our receivers are worse than our qbs, and anything less than a perfect ball gets dropped. Petras is sunk cost fallacy personified. The more starts he got, the less likely anyone else was going to replace him.
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You cannot be actually comparing the Illinois defense from last year to this year, they're not even on the same planet. The Illinois defense this year is top 10 in every team defensive category and can be argued as one of, if not the best defense in the country this year.Oh, they absolutely dropped passes from Petras as well. The difference is, Petras would regularly throw uncatchable balls and take deep sacks.
The average Petras incompletion looked more like this:
Petras also went up against a very similar Illinois defense this year and scored 6 points despite throwing 36 times and having far more starts. Anyone with eyes can see that Padilla was far more accurate and that the stats deceived because our receivers are worse than our qbs, and anything less than a perfect ball gets dropped. Petras is sunk cost fallacy personified. The more starts he got, the less likely anyone else was going to replace him.
It's also ridiculous to claim a QB that's completed less than half of his passes in his career is "more accurate", especially when both guys are dealing to the same WRs with the same OL in front of them.
Nobody is claiming Petras is good, but the idea that Padilla is any better is something fans are clinging to based on "eye-test", instead of the mountain of statistical and analytical evidence that proves otherwise.
I posted video proof that he's more accurate. Almost every incompletion Padilla throws is on target, bouncing off hands or getting jarred loose at the last second. In both Nebraska games, same story. La Porta has it, then he doesnt. This year, the cameraman thinks he's throwing it away but it's a brilliant throw that gets dropped again. Our receivers are not D1 caliber. They have alligator arms.
Charlie Jones going from 300 with us to 1300 with Purdue should tell you what goes on here. We're not playing our best guys on offense. Our cornerbacks had more touchdowns than our wide receivers last year.
Charlie Jones going from 300 with us to 1300 with Purdue should tell you what goes on here. We're not playing our best guys on offense. Our cornerbacks had more touchdowns than our wide receivers last year.
All those drops are a thing of the past, fellas. The WR cavalry is en route via a magical portal, and when they arrive the only thing they’ll be dropping is hammers.
Lmao that was not video proof of his accuracy, especially when it's from a single game.
Yet again, you're imprinting him with qualities he does not have based on what you want him to be not what he is.
Very nice effort to support your son, brother, friend, whatever. 'Getting jarred loose at the last second' that happens when the receiver is tightly guarded, throwing into double coverage or not on time for the throw. Using your rationale we could compile a video of interceptions and show that if only the defender wasn't where he was that would have been a perfect pass to the receiver.
I don't think that Padilla got a fair shot. However when given his shots he didn't separate himself in any significant way. Your film work doesn't really support some huge revelation because qb coaches can watch that, see that maybe the read wasn't the best or the timing wasn't great. Several things go into drops/incompletions.
Padilla’s less than stellar pass % was a product of low sample size and a disproportionately high number of drops from receivers within that small sample size. The vast majority of his passes were on target catchable balls, and he clearly had better pocket awareness and mobility.
Iowa wins against Iowa St, Illinois, and Nebraska with Padilla starting, imo.
I do love the number of people who continue trying to prop up Padilla because of "the drops" and then totally dismiss that SP played with the SAME WR's and they dropped a lot of balls from him as well, and he still had a higher completion %. This is just the ongoing beating a dead horse, with nothing more then opinions from both sides. Its pointless.....
Literally none of this is true from either a statistical or analytical standpoint, it's something that a small segment of fans have deluded themselves into thinking in the hope that someone on the roster was better than Petras. And as has been stated in this very thread, it is incredibly disingenuous to assume Padilla suffered from more drops. Both QBs had an identical supporting cast.
The closest thing in college we have to an actual statistic for "catchable passes" (which is not even a real tracked statistic) would probably be PFF's passer rating (tables below are OVR, PASS, RUN).
As you can see, while good by no means, Petras' is near double that of Padilla's in both the OVR and PASS category. PFF grades also account for drops and missed blocks, meaning they will not punish a player's grade for mistakes by other players (ie a QB delivers a pass on target but his WR drops it).
Again, by every measure except for "eye-test" (which is nothing more than uninformed fan opinion) the idea that Padilla was hurt by his lack of chances or supporting cast simply doesn't hold water. If anything, Labas should have been the backup far earlier.
This year Alex Padilla played in two games, Ohio State and Nebraska. He went 21-43 (48.8%) and averaged 4 yards per pass play. In those same two games, his competition Spencer Petras went 7-20 (35%) for 2.9 yards per pass play.
So yes, in the same two games against the same competition with the same tools around them, Alex performed better. The eye test and stats both support this. And that is despite being thrust into a terrible situation with the team already down double digits on the road.
I'm sorry, what? You yourself claimed that Padilla didn't have the sample size that Petras did and therefore wasn't given a chance, and then turn around and use a sample size for Padilla twice that of Petras'.
It also neglects that Padilla was still absolutely atrocious in both games, including still managing a worse QBR vs OSU than Petras, where he turned the ball over twice in his first three plays. And on top of all that, we're measuring these guys based off their ENTIRE body of work, not two games over the course one player got hurt and another was inserted at half-time.
Your logic is woefully inconsistent at best, and downright cherry-picked at worst. Like I said, you're talking yourself in circles in favor of a narrative that is true nowhere except in your mind. You're trying to prop up a guy who's completed more than 50% of his passes in exactly 2 of the 9 games he's played serious action in, which is absolutely terrible by any mark. He's not who you want him to be. This is not a bad QB vs a good QB It's a really bad QB vs a really bad QB.
And stop using the "eye-test" as if it were some legitimate metric. You're proving right now that it isn't.
Spencer was bad, no doubt, but people have thought themselves into knots that somehow the guy behind him wasn't given a chance rather than being clearly worse as all evidence suggests.
Lol, come on man. Cherry picked stats? I used all of the stats available for Padilla for the entire year. The only two games where both QB’s took meaningful snaps against the same competition. That is the opposite of cherry picked stats.
The reality is that in 2022, Padilla performed better than Petras in the games that he played in. His stats, while not great, were better than Petras against both Ohio State and Nebraska. Those are the objective facts.
Whether or not Padilla would have been marginally better enough to get wins as a starter against ISU, Illinois, and Nebraska is purely opinion. My opinion is yes, since it would have taken only a very small improvement in QB play to win those three games.
I literally cannot take your argument seriously man. You're absolutely refusing to look at the actual evidence and substituting it for your own.
Not my “own” evidence, my friend. It’s all the evidence on Padilla for the entire 2022 season. Ohio State and Nebraska happen to be the only apples to apples comparisons we have available for the two quarterbacks, and Padilla was statistically better. Just not better enough to get QB1’s union card revoked.
Also, you downplay the eye test, but it matters when evaluating a QB. People watch Padilla go out there and move in the pocket, avoid multiple sacks, and throw a catchable ball that gets dropped. Then they see Petras take a sack for -12 yards on a similar play. The former goes down as an incompletion for Padilla, contributing to that 49% completion percentage that you like to reference. The later, is not recorded as a passing statistic.
Also it’s worth noting that at one point late in the Nebraska game, Padilla had brought us back into the game and had completed nearly 70% of his passes. Then his passing % fell off towards the end due to a combination of drops, and forcing the ball down the field to overcome the remaining deficit with minimal time left. My brother and I correctly predicted that some people would look at his final passing statistics and say “seE hE’S NoT bETter ThAn PeTrAS, hE onLY cOmPLETed 50% oF His PASses!!” Lol
For what it’s worth, I agree with you that Labas should have had more time this season and may have been better than both of them.
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Forgive me if I don't trust the analytics of the esteemed "you and your brother" over people who are paid to do this for a living lol
Where is this "mountain" of statistical data? How does one attain such a quantity of data with hardly any playing time?
He's thrown over 150 passes in an Iowa uniform. The idea that he hasn't had enough time to show what he can do is plain incorrect.
He did average -1.9 yards per rush obliterating Spencer’s -2.1. Those 12 yard sacks Spencer was taking rather then having a pass dropped or throwing it away sure piled up.
So I decided to take an hour and make these clips showing all the "horrible" incompletions the Padilla haters keep referencing. These are all 11 from the Illinois game. Our elite receiving corps had a fantastic day being slow, clumsy, and not catching a damn thing.
bit late, but drop
throwaway, receiver fell down
drop
throwaway
drop, ball had to come out there because of an unblocked blitzer, Goodson wasn't ready
drop
another look
receiver hooked, no call
drop
drop
drop
deep pick
Thanks Mr. Padilla.
150 attempts in 3yrs is marginally useful stats. Most starters will have 150 half way through the year.
If you can't tell who he really is as a QB after 150 attempts, you might want to stick to just watching football instead of analyzing it.
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