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Election Erection Update - AZ (11/5/2020)

LuciousBDragon

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Aug 31, 2017
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Figure I would give you yahoo's an update on what I'm seeing here in the land of the 60 year old cougars with leather skin.

The indicators as being reported by the media are trending for Trump. Many of the votes still being tabulated are mail-in or early ballots that were dropped off on the day of the election. Arizona is bucking the mail-in trend however since this state has utilized mail-in voting for quite some time. That is why there is confidence the late votes can lean red instead of other states where they are trending blue.

On election night, the other measures for key House races, Maricopa County Sherriff, Maricopa County Attorney, and the statewide initiatives (marijuana and raise taxes for education) all went 55%-60% blue.

What we have seen in the last 12-16 hours is the red folks have made up those margins.
- County Attorney has now turned in favor of the Conservative candidate (although the poor woman suffered a major brain bleed late on election night and went to the hospital)
- Scottsdale House District has now turned in favor of the incumbent (Conservative) member and Dr. Tiperneni is loosing (lots of money on this and this would be the good Dr's third loss in a row)
- Marijuana will still pass by a healthy margin
- Raise taxes for education initiative had a 10 point lead election night. It is down to 4% now.
- Heard reports that Mormon's are 20 pts down compared to conservatives in the Presidential vote (they are roughly 5% of the state population) - this is different than usual and could end up being a deciding factor for the President.

Rough math says if red votes continue to break 60%+ red then Trump can win and the tax measure will be defeated.
 
Trump wins AZ, and there's going to be a battle like you've never seen in PA in the courts. A battle I think the president wins.
 
Just an update as of Friday afternoon:

- AZ is still up in the air however everyone here realizes Biden may squeak it out
- Phoenix talk-radio had the State GOP Chairman on to talk about strategy. The main topic was what happens should they face defeat?
- When asked if they are defeated at the Presidential and Senate level what they may do different next cycle, the Chairman said “nothing.” She said they see their biggest issue solely as a fundraising problem and the only thing they would do different is double-down on fundraising efforts.

I dunno about you,but I see this as a little tone-def. The GOP is still who I want to prevail but this lone comment signals a lack of strategy & focus at the state level. Money won’t solve this problem alone. Everyone in AZ has known for two decades that Californians would take over. No strategy to combat that.

Mind you, with the Mormons making up 5% of the total AZ vote, if the race for AZ’s electoral votes comes down to 10-15K votes then it may be Mitt Romney getting the last laugh against Donald Trump. Mormons are voting red up and down the ballot, except President (down 20% there by all estimates).
 
Two previously "red" States, AZ and GA, have become battleground States. IMO, Iowa is no longer battleground territory. This is a BIG net negative for the GOP. I think Texas is the next Dem target.

The fact that Trump lost Maricopa after winning it in 2016 is a big deal.

On behalf of me... Thanks, Arizona.
 
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Nate Cohn, in New York 18m ago
The latest Arizona ballot releases aren’t looking great for Trump. Biden just led Yuma’s update. The problem for Trump? That’s a place where he led the count up till now.See Arizona results ›
 
Two previously "red" States, AZ and GA, have become battleground States. IMO, Iowa is no longer battleground territory. This is a BIG net negative for the GOP. I think Texas is the next Dem target.

The fact that Trump lost Maricopa after winning it in 2016 is a big deal.

On behalf of me... Thanks, Arizona.
North Carolina also looks like a potential swing state
 
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