Oct 24, 2018 Update from ESPN.com
I guess we went from 9 teams (on Oct 2) to 15 teams (Oct 24) which are CFP contenders.
Per ESPN, 15 teams are left to vie for the FOUR coveted spots in the Dec. 29 semifinal games in north Texas and south Florida.
In the linked article that follows:
* The CFP contenders are listed in order of ESPN FPI rank.
* IOWA comes in at #10.
Where will Iowa be after the Penn State game?
LINK: http://www.espn.com/college-footbal.../eliminator-unbeaten-ucf-two-loss-texas-alive
Oct 23, 2018 Update from ESPN.com.
The playoff's biggest questions one week from the first rankings
The 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee meet for the first time this season in Grapevine, Texas, and release their first ranking on Oct. 30.
This is not your weekly Associated Press Top 25 poll.
New committee chairman Rob Mullens, Oregon's athletic director, said the process is "completely different."
"We don't start until after Week 9, so everything is based on work to date, results to date, résumé to date," he said. "It is not based on any sort of projection or look forward or even prior years' performance. It's 100 percent based on the results through Week 9 when our first ranking comes out."
One storyline to watch when the first ranking is released next Tuesday is Which team is in a position to make the biggest jump?
Just because a team doesn't start in the top 10 doesn't mean it can't finish in the top four. Ohio State (No. 16 in 2014) and Oklahoma (No. 15 in 2015) both made the playoff after starting outside the initial top 10. Any one-loss Power 5 team that is still in contention to win its conference can't be ruled out -- at least not yet. That means keep an eye on Iowa this week, because if the Hawkeyes can pull off the upset at Penn State, they might have the best chance to make the slow climb up the ranking. The Nittany Lions are the only remaining opponent Iowa isn't favored to beat, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, but the Hawkeyes have a second straight difficult road trip to Purdue on Nov. 3. They also need Wisconsin to lose again, as the Badgers own the head-to-head in the division race.
LINK: http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...ayoff-selection-committee-deliberation-topics
ORIGINAL POST
The nine teams that still have a chance at the CFP title
At least for now -- in this weekly snapshot college football lives by until the next upset -- Notre Dame has a 47 percent chance to reach the playoff, according to ESPN's Playoff Predictor.
There's the SEC, which still has four undefeated teams and could again place two teams in the semifinals (39 percent chance, according to ESPN's Football Power Index).
Many of the past 16 semifinalists have these things in common:
* a regular-season schedule ranked in the top 55;
* a nonconference game against a Power 5 opponent;
* at least two wins over ranked opponents;
* a head coach who has previously won a conference title;
* a player who finished in the top 10 of the Heisman Trophy voting;
* a top-four finish in ESPN's strength of record metric;
* a top-15 ranking in either offensive or defensive efficiency; and
* a ranking among the top 10 nationally in scoring margin.
These are the teams that enter Week 6 with a real shot, and a look at whether they're following the trends of past semifinalists:
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Chance to make the playoff: 75.4 percent
Chance to win the title: 32.6 percent
Trends in their favor: Alabama can check almost every box. The Tide are ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in defensive efficiency. Alabama leads the nation in points margin per game at 41.2. One of the reasons Alabama's offense is soaring is quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is currently leading ESPN's Heisman Watch. Thirteen of the past 16 semifinalists had a player finish in the top 10 of the Heisman voting that season. Alabama's remaining SOS is No. 38, and while Louisville hasn't been very good, the Tide can at least claim a win over a Power 5 nonconference opponent.
What's missing: Wins against ranked opponents (every past semifinalist has had at least two wins over AP-ranked teams). A top-four ranking in ESPN's strength of record metric (Alabama is currently No. 8; all 12 semifinalists over the past three seasons have been in the top four).
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
Chance to make the playoff: 74.9 percent
Chance to win the title: 22.9 percent
Trends in their favor: The Buckeyes are currently No. 1 in SOS, which means the average Top 25 team would have a 12 percent chance to start 5-0 against Ohio State's schedule. They've also got a Heisman contender, as quarterback Dwayne Haskins is No. 2 in ESPN's Heisman Watch. Ohio State is No. 5 in offensive efficiency and is tied with Georgia for fourth in scoring margin at 30.2.The Buckeyes already have two wins against ranked opponents in TCU and now Penn State. The remaining strength of schedule is No. 39.
What's missing: Not a thing, as far as past trends go.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
Chance to make the playoff: 52 percent
Chance to win the title: 13.9 percent
Trends in their favor: Georgia is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 7 in offensive efficiency. It also has a coach who previously won the conference title in Kirby Smart.
What's missing: A Heisman hopeful, and the schedule. The Bulldogs are No. 6 in strength of record, which isn't bad at all, but Missouri is the only opponent they've played with a record over .500. Georgia also doesn't have any wins over ranked opponents yet, as South Carolina has dropped out of the AP poll since its loss to Georgia. The Bulldogs also haven't played a Power 5 nonconference opponent yet and won't until the Nov. 24 regular-season rivalry game against Georgia Tech.
4. Clemson Tigers
Chance to make the playoff: 56 percent
Chance to win the title: 10.8 percent
Trends in their favor: The obvious is the experience of coach Dabo Swinney and the important Power 5 road win at Texas A&M. Clemson is No. 3 in the nation in defensive efficiency.
What's missing: The superstar and the schedule. Like Georgia, Clemson doesn't have anyone currently in the Heisman Watch, and the Tigers entered this week with some uncertainty at quarterback. Starter Trevor Lawrence was injured on Saturday, and Kelly Bryant has said he will transfer. Whether either of those is a long-term issue remains to be seen. Clemson is No. 20 in scoring margin at 21.2 points per game. Clemson is No. 5 in SOR, but it hasn't defeated any ranked opponents yet, and the lone opportunity as of now is Oct. 20 against No. 23 NC State.
I guess we went from 9 teams (on Oct 2) to 15 teams (Oct 24) which are CFP contenders.
Per ESPN, 15 teams are left to vie for the FOUR coveted spots in the Dec. 29 semifinal games in north Texas and south Florida.
In the linked article that follows:
* The CFP contenders are listed in order of ESPN FPI rank.
* IOWA comes in at #10.
Where will Iowa be after the Penn State game?
LINK: http://www.espn.com/college-footbal.../eliminator-unbeaten-ucf-two-loss-texas-alive
Oct 23, 2018 Update from ESPN.com.
The playoff's biggest questions one week from the first rankings
The 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee meet for the first time this season in Grapevine, Texas, and release their first ranking on Oct. 30.
This is not your weekly Associated Press Top 25 poll.
New committee chairman Rob Mullens, Oregon's athletic director, said the process is "completely different."
"We don't start until after Week 9, so everything is based on work to date, results to date, résumé to date," he said. "It is not based on any sort of projection or look forward or even prior years' performance. It's 100 percent based on the results through Week 9 when our first ranking comes out."
One storyline to watch when the first ranking is released next Tuesday is Which team is in a position to make the biggest jump?
Just because a team doesn't start in the top 10 doesn't mean it can't finish in the top four. Ohio State (No. 16 in 2014) and Oklahoma (No. 15 in 2015) both made the playoff after starting outside the initial top 10. Any one-loss Power 5 team that is still in contention to win its conference can't be ruled out -- at least not yet. That means keep an eye on Iowa this week, because if the Hawkeyes can pull off the upset at Penn State, they might have the best chance to make the slow climb up the ranking. The Nittany Lions are the only remaining opponent Iowa isn't favored to beat, according to ESPN's Football Power Index, but the Hawkeyes have a second straight difficult road trip to Purdue on Nov. 3. They also need Wisconsin to lose again, as the Badgers own the head-to-head in the division race.
LINK: http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...ayoff-selection-committee-deliberation-topics
ORIGINAL POST
The nine teams that still have a chance at the CFP title
-
Heather DinichESPN Senior Writer
- October 2, 2018; 8:00 AM CT
-
At least for now -- in this weekly snapshot college football lives by until the next upset -- Notre Dame has a 47 percent chance to reach the playoff, according to ESPN's Playoff Predictor.
There's the SEC, which still has four undefeated teams and could again place two teams in the semifinals (39 percent chance, according to ESPN's Football Power Index).
Many of the past 16 semifinalists have these things in common:
* a regular-season schedule ranked in the top 55;
* a nonconference game against a Power 5 opponent;
* at least two wins over ranked opponents;
* a head coach who has previously won a conference title;
* a player who finished in the top 10 of the Heisman Trophy voting;
* a top-four finish in ESPN's strength of record metric;
* a top-15 ranking in either offensive or defensive efficiency; and
* a ranking among the top 10 nationally in scoring margin.
These are the teams that enter Week 6 with a real shot, and a look at whether they're following the trends of past semifinalists:
Chance to make the playoff: 75.4 percent
Chance to win the title: 32.6 percent
Trends in their favor: Alabama can check almost every box. The Tide are ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in defensive efficiency. Alabama leads the nation in points margin per game at 41.2. One of the reasons Alabama's offense is soaring is quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who is currently leading ESPN's Heisman Watch. Thirteen of the past 16 semifinalists had a player finish in the top 10 of the Heisman voting that season. Alabama's remaining SOS is No. 38, and while Louisville hasn't been very good, the Tide can at least claim a win over a Power 5 nonconference opponent.
What's missing: Wins against ranked opponents (every past semifinalist has had at least two wins over AP-ranked teams). A top-four ranking in ESPN's strength of record metric (Alabama is currently No. 8; all 12 semifinalists over the past three seasons have been in the top four).
Chance to make the playoff: 74.9 percent
Chance to win the title: 22.9 percent
Trends in their favor: The Buckeyes are currently No. 1 in SOS, which means the average Top 25 team would have a 12 percent chance to start 5-0 against Ohio State's schedule. They've also got a Heisman contender, as quarterback Dwayne Haskins is No. 2 in ESPN's Heisman Watch. Ohio State is No. 5 in offensive efficiency and is tied with Georgia for fourth in scoring margin at 30.2.The Buckeyes already have two wins against ranked opponents in TCU and now Penn State. The remaining strength of schedule is No. 39.
What's missing: Not a thing, as far as past trends go.
Chance to make the playoff: 52 percent
Chance to win the title: 13.9 percent
Trends in their favor: Georgia is No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 7 in offensive efficiency. It also has a coach who previously won the conference title in Kirby Smart.
What's missing: A Heisman hopeful, and the schedule. The Bulldogs are No. 6 in strength of record, which isn't bad at all, but Missouri is the only opponent they've played with a record over .500. Georgia also doesn't have any wins over ranked opponents yet, as South Carolina has dropped out of the AP poll since its loss to Georgia. The Bulldogs also haven't played a Power 5 nonconference opponent yet and won't until the Nov. 24 regular-season rivalry game against Georgia Tech.
Chance to make the playoff: 56 percent
Chance to win the title: 10.8 percent
Trends in their favor: The obvious is the experience of coach Dabo Swinney and the important Power 5 road win at Texas A&M. Clemson is No. 3 in the nation in defensive efficiency.
What's missing: The superstar and the schedule. Like Georgia, Clemson doesn't have anyone currently in the Heisman Watch, and the Tigers entered this week with some uncertainty at quarterback. Starter Trevor Lawrence was injured on Saturday, and Kelly Bryant has said he will transfer. Whether either of those is a long-term issue remains to be seen. Clemson is No. 20 in scoring margin at 21.2 points per game. Clemson is No. 5 in SOR, but it hasn't defeated any ranked opponents yet, and the lone opportunity as of now is Oct. 20 against No. 23 NC State.
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