ESPN FPI says Stanford has a 69% chance to win....
- Thread starter IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life
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FPI has hated Iowa all year minus N Texas... We should be 1-11
Actually, I think it's a great thing. If we win, it will reall show how flawed the matrix, matrices, matrici...whatever are for this ESecPN made up index
This is the same FPI that up until the last week of the year had us rated behind 3-9 Georgia Tech and two 6 loss teams, and 7 loss Nebraska just a couple spots behind us.
My 2 cents.... B1G teams haven't faired well against the Pac over history and has only won 3 games since 2000.
( been some years other teams have played in the Rose bowl game not matching B1G and Pac)
I think that has some degree why Stanford is favored tomorrow.
( been some years other teams have played in the Rose bowl game not matching B1G and Pac)
I think that has some degree why Stanford is favored tomorrow.
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anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba
Guest
Except, of course, that 5-7 Nebraska just beat 8-4 UCLA and Wisconsin just beat Pac 12 runner-up USC...and in the Pac 12 teams' backyards, as always.
And what was the % that Iowa would go undefeated in the regular season and be ranked #5 right now? Negative 50? Throw all the numbers and metrics you want out there, and it STILL comes down to blocking and tackling and taking care of the football.
I do know Iowa was 500 to 1 to win the national championship when the season began. You don't think there were some nervous folks in Las Vegas back on Dec. 5 do ya? LOL
And what was the % that Iowa would go undefeated in the regular season and be ranked #5 right now? Negative 50? Throw all the numbers and metrics you want out there, and it STILL comes down to blocking and tackling and taking care of the football.
I do know Iowa was 500 to 1 to win the national championship when the season began. You don't think there were some nervous folks in Las Vegas back on Dec. 5 do ya? LOL
I guarantee that Vegas was not worried at all about Iowa since there probably were not many who placed that bet. The odds are the way they are for a reason, so no matter who wins they make money.
They must have heard Stanford had a good week of practice.
?? Just this year, off the top of my head, MSU beat Oregon(I think), NW beat Stanford(sure) and Nebby downed UCLA the other night. Are you sure your stat is accurate?
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anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba
Guest
Don't bother with facts. Why even bother playing the games? ESPN metrics are all that matter. (He said sarcastically.)
Oh, and at 500-1 odds, it wouldn't take more than a handful of modest bets on Iowa to have potentially put a pretty big dent in Vegas since a $2,000 bet would have returned a cool mil. So close....
Oh, and at 500-1 odds, it wouldn't take more than a handful of modest bets on Iowa to have potentially put a pretty big dent in Vegas since a $2,000 bet would have returned a cool mil. So close....
OK, i didn't realize that he was limiting his comments to the Rose Bowl game only.
I think I saw somewhere that 80% of the time it's accurate all the time. Or something like that.
Well, all i can say is that I'm 100% sure that's a piece of crap way to predict the outcome of a game. And it doesn't pass the eye ball test either.
http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/123158/espns-football-power-index-a-look-back-at-2015
As with any projection system, however, if the FPI favorite loses it doesn’t mean the system was wrong. If a team has a 55 percent chance to win, it is expected to lose 45 percent of the time. In fact, if every team with a 55 percent chance to win was victorious, the system is actually pretty inaccurate.
EXP vs ACTUAL WIN PCT
50-60% 65%
60-70% 67%
70-80% 74%
80-90% 87%
90-100% 96%
As can be seen in the chart, FPI’s predicted winning percentages corresponded closely to the actual winning percentage of teams this season. For example, when FPI gave a team between a 70 percent and 80 percent chance to win, those teams actually won 74 percent of the time. FPI's game predictions were fairly accurate in terms of the confidence the system had in each favorite winning.
Iowa (projected to win 6.6 games), Houston (projected to win 6.7 games) andBowling Green (projected to win 4.7 games) are all teams that FPI underestimated. FPI saw that all three of those teams ranked outside the top 60 in the FBS in overall efficiency in 2014, but each of those schools deserve credit for fantastic seasons.
69 is always good for me. I can't believe no one is picking up on this.
