Michigan vs. a perfect trap game scenario
Big Ten championship: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 13 Iowa (8 p.m., Fox)We know exactly what Iowa is going to try to do in virtually every game it plays; it's just a matter of whether it works. The Hawkeyes are going to run the ball constantly whether it goes anywhere or not. They're going to use big-legged punter Tory Taylor to generate the equivalent of an extra first down or two each drive. They're going to sit in a conservative-but-spicy zone defense, and they're going to wait for your quarterback to make a mistake, knowing he eventually will. That's pretty much the entire game plan.
In the past two years, the Hawkeyes are 16-1 when allowing fewer than 24 points and 0-3 when allowing more. They are 4-4 when their turnover margin is zero or worse, and they are 12-0 when it's positive. They are 14-1 when their passers produce a rating over 100 -- an impossibly low bar -- and 2-3 when they don't. They define the rules of the game, and it's up to you to follow the rules and win anyway. Not many do.
They are a giant pain in the butt, in other words. One could say they are exactly the type of team you don't want to play after a particularly cathartic win.
Jim Harbaugh and Michigan finally got the Ohio State monkey off of their collective back. The Wolverines manhandled the Buckeyes 42-27 in snowy Ann Arbor, finally clinching their first division title and getting to within one game of their first CFP appearance.
In theory, Michigan is better equipped than most to handle the Hawkeyes. The Wolverines have surrendered only nine turnovers this year -- sixth fewest in FBS -- and quarterback Cade McNamara has thrown only three interceptions in 284 passes. He has worked his way up to 16th in Total QBR, 11th over his past five games. Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis has slowly increased the burden on his young QB as the season has progressed, in terms of both pass variety and volume, and McNamara has responded well.
He's performed far better against man defense (24th in raw QBR) than zone (44th), however, and if anyone in the country can coax mistakes out of McNamara, it's Iowa. The Hawkeyes are excellent against the run and should force plenty of third-and-mediums and third-and-longs from which they could make life tricky for McNamara and Michigan.
If the Hawkeyes can't win the turnover battle, and potentially create some easy points from that, it's hard to imagine them pulling an upset here. Their offense is truly dismal once again -- 102nd in points per drive, 120th in success rate, 113th in three-and-out rate, 118th in explosive play rate. But they're 10-2 despite that offense, and if the Wolverines have lost focus at all post-Ohio State, they're in for 60 very frustrating minutes.
