EV Adoption In US Is Happening Faster than Predicted

Dec 31, 2014
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Almost every year since 2018, Boston Consulting Group (BCG) has released a market projection for EV adoption. The analysis is thorough and thoughtful, with thousands of words of supporting detail on how the projections are designed.

Each report shows stacked bar charts that, year after year, demonstrate the accelerating growth of EV sales. The 2022 report is no different. Global EV adoption is projected to multiply by 2025, 2030 and 2035 – fueled by sales in major auto markets like the US and China.

BCG projections for EV adoption

Many of us don’t need detailed analysis to understand this. We can see it on our neighborhood streets, where EV counts are gaining momentum each month. Even two years ago, it was noteworthy to see an EV on my way to the store. Now, I hardly notice anymore.

EV Adoption Models Are Accelerating​

It can be easy to get lost in the data and projections from the latest 2022 report. The most interesting thing, however, how the projections compare over the years. In other words, comparing the 2018 report to the 2020 report to the 2022 report. EV projections have continually been revised to increase the rate of adoption. It just goes to show that interest in EVs is accelerating faster than anticipated.

EV projections have continually been revised to increase the rate of adoption. It just goes to show that interest in EVs is accelerating faster than anticipated.

We combined the last 4 projections to demonstrate how they are changing over the years. Since we spend most of our time focused on the American EV market, we broke out US sales projections from each of these BCG reports.

A comparison on EV adoption forecasts and projections from 2018 to 2022

EV sales projections for 2030 changed each year that BCG released a report. Sales projections in the US for 2030 continued to grow to:

  • 21% in the 2018 report
  • 26% in the 2020 report
  • 42% in the 2021 report
  • 53% in the 2022 report
In the course of 4 years – from 2018 to 2022 – US EV sales projections for 2030 more than doubled, growing from an estimated 21% to 53%.
 

ihhawk

HR Legend
Gold Member
Feb 4, 2004
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I personally feel the PHEV is the best option. If they could get the battery to hold a charge for a 60 mile range it would be ideal for almost everyone
 

Herky T Hawk

HR Heisman
Feb 5, 2003
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I personally feel the PHEV is the best option. If they could get the battery to hold a charge for a 60 mile range it would be ideal for almost everyone
The problem with phev is that while you get the best of both worlds in terms of range, you also get the worst of both worlds in terms of maintenance. You have electrical systems and motors to maintain or replace while also having a engine and lubricants that also have to be maintained.

An all electric greatly reduces the complexity and the maintenance. But also reduces the range while increasing “refill time”. This is why I’m advocating for the hybrid 2 car garage for now. One electric car for around town and the person with longer commutes, one ICE for longer trips and shorter commutes.
 
Dec 31, 2014
13,381
19,726
113
The problem with phev is that while you get the best of both worlds in terms of range, you also get the worst of both worlds in terms of maintenance. You have electrical systems and motors to maintain or replace while also having a engine and lubricants that also have to be maintained.

An all electric greatly reduces the complexity and the maintenance. But also reduces the range while increasing “refill time”. This is why I’m advocating for the hybrid 2 car garage for now. One electric car for around town and the person with longer commutes, one ICE for longer trips and shorter commutes.

This is the way I see most households going for the short to medium term. When battery efficiency improves to the point of rapid charging (~10-12 minutes) and 400-500 mile range everyone will want to go electric.

The economic proposition of EVs is simply too compelling. In the last 31 days the electricity cost to power our Model Y was ~$37.
 

ihhawk

HR Legend
Gold Member
Feb 4, 2004
22,528
19,391
113
Fort Lauderdale
The problem with phev is that while you get the best of both worlds in terms of range, you also get the worst of both worlds in terms of maintenance. You have electrical systems and motors to maintain or replace while also having a engine and lubricants that also have to be maintained.

An all electric greatly reduces the complexity and the maintenance. But also reduces the range while increasing “refill time”. This is why I’m advocating for the hybrid 2 car garage for now. One electric car for around town and the person with longer commutes, one ICE for longer trips and shorter commutes.
My Kia has a 10 year warranty on the battery system.

In 3 years when my lease is up I want to get the Silverado EV truck.