Even if we win these last two, we are best projected a 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament

[IAFootball3406]

Found this website. It does scenario simulations that generates conference tournament brackets.
http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

Scenario 1 - IOWA #2 SEED
Iowa - Indiana - @Michigan
Indiana - @Iowa - Maryland
Maryland - Illinois - @Indiana

Scenario 2 - IOWA #4 SEED
Iowa - Indiana - @Michigan
Indiana - @Iowa - Maryland
Maryland - Illinois - @Indiana

Scenario 3 - IOWA #4 SEED
Iowa - Indiana - @Michigan
Indiana - @Iowa - Maryland
Maryland - Illinois - @Indiana

Scenario 4 - IOWA #4 SEED
Iowa - Indiana - @Michigan
Indiana - @Iowa - Maryland
Maryland - Illinois - @Indiana

Scenario 5 - IOWA #7 SEED
Iowa - Indiana - @Michigan
Indiana - @Iowa - Maryland
Maryland - Illinois - @Indiana

VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO
Scenario 6 - IOWA #1 SEED
Iowa - Indiana - @Michigan
Indiana - @Iowa - Maryland
Maryland - Illinois - @Indiana

 

[StormHawk42]

Crazy to think we could end up with the 7 seed after the start we had

 

[Suratty]

I also did the predictor scenarios, don't forget about the Purdue/Wisconsin game. Depending on how we finish, we can also fall into the #5 and #6 seed. In the end, just win out and get the double bye. GO HAWKS!

 

[Mohawkeye]

This year more than ever, I don't see much difference between being the #1, 2, 3 or 4 seed. Dropping below #4 would suck.

 

[El Simbolo]

I think it would best to avoid MSU in our half of the bracket.

 

[whatsup13579er]

I ran the following scenario and this is what it spit out for the tiebreaker:

Iowa - Indiana (L) - @Michigan (W)
Indiana - @Iowa (W) - Maryland (W)
Maryland - Illinois (W) - @Indiana (L)

3. Maryland (12 - 6) Defeated Iowa, Purdue, and Wisconsin based on round-robin record.
4. Purdue (12 - 6) With Iowa, defeated Wisconsin and lost to Maryland based on round-robin record. Defeated Iowa based on record against #7 teams.
5. Iowa (12 - 6) With Purdue, defeated Wisconsin and lost to Maryland based on round-robin record. Lost to Purdue based on record against #7 teams.
6. Wisconsin (12 - 6) Lost to Maryland, Iowa, and Purdue based on round-robin record.

How does Purdue win a tiebreaker over Iowa? This can't be right can it?

 

[IAFootball3406]

I ran the following scenario and this is what it spit out for the tiebreaker:

Iowa - Indiana (L) - @Michigan (W)
Indiana - @Iowa (W) - Maryland (W)
Maryland - Illinois (W) - @Indiana (L)

3. Maryland (12 - 6) Defeated Iowa, Purdue, and Wisconsin based on round-robin record.
4. Purdue (12 - 6) With Iowa, defeated Wisconsin and lost to Maryland based on round-robin record. Defeated Iowa based on record against #7 teams.
5. Iowa (12 - 6) With Purdue, defeated Wisconsin and lost to Maryland based on round-robin record. Lost to Purdue based on record against #7 teams.
6. Wisconsin (12 - 6) Lost to Maryland, Iowa, and Purdue based on round-robin record.

How does Purdue win a tiebreaker over Iowa? This can't be right can it?

It's essentially a 4-way tie for 3rd in the B1G, and the tie-breaker is round-robin record against those four teams.

Maryland - 3-2
Purdue - 3-3
Iowa - 2-2
Wisconsin - 2-3

I'm guessing Purdue gets the bump to due higher wins?

 

[OC_Hawk]

I ran the following scenario and this is what it spit out for the tiebreaker:

Iowa - Indiana (L) - @Michigan (W)
Indiana - @Iowa (W) - Maryland (W)
Maryland - Illinois (W) - @Indiana (L)

3. Maryland (12 - 6) Defeated Iowa, Purdue, and Wisconsin based on round-robin record.
4. Purdue (12 - 6) With Iowa, defeated Wisconsin and lost to Maryland based on round-robin record. Defeated Iowa based on record against #7 teams.
5. Iowa (12 - 6) With Purdue, defeated Wisconsin and lost to Maryland based on round-robin record. Lost to Purdue based on record against #7 teams.
6. Wisconsin (12 - 6) Lost to Maryland, Iowa, and Purdue based on round-robin record.

How does Purdue win a tiebreaker over Iowa? This can't be right can it?

When multiple teams are tied, the collective record against the other tied teams is used first. Can't tell where you have MSU here but I'll assume they are the #2 seed at 13-5?

1b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
Maryland / Purdue / Iowa / Wisconsin round robin:
Maryland = 1-1 / 1-0 / 1-1 = 3-2
Purdue = 1-1 / 0-2 / 2-0 = 3-3
Iowa = 0-1 / 2-0 / 0-1 = 2-2
Wisconsin = 1-1 / 0-2 / 1-0 = 2-3

Maryland's winning percentage gives them 3 seed. Wisconsin winning percentage gives them 6 seed.
Purdue & Iowa have same winning percentage so:

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
Purdue vs Indiana = 0-1 / Iowa vs Indiana = 0-2
Purdue vs Michigan State = 1-0 / Iowa vs Michigan State = 2-0
Purdue vs Maryland = 1-1 / Iowa vs Maryland = 0-1

Purdue gets nod over Iowa.

 

[hawklandish]

If we don't start playing better, seeding is irrelevant.

 

[whatsup13579er]

When multiple teams are tied, the collective record against the other tied teams is used first. Can't tell where you have MSU here but I'll assume they are the #2 seed at 13-5?

1b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
Maryland / Purdue / Iowa / Wisconsin round robin:
Maryland = 1-1 / 1-0 / 1-1 = 3-2
Purdue = 1-1 / 0-2 / 2-0 = 3-3
Iowa = 0-1 / 2-0 / 0-1 = 2-2
Wisconsin = 1-1 / 0-2 / 1-0 = 2-3

Maryland's winning percentage gives them 3 seed. Wisconsin winning percentage gives them 6 seed.
Purdue & Iowa have same winning percentage so:

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
Purdue vs Indiana = 0-1 / Iowa vs Indiana = 0-2
Purdue vs Michigan State = 1-0 / Iowa vs Michigan State = 2-0
Purdue vs Maryland = 1-1 / Iowa vs Maryland = 0-1

Purdue gets nod over Iowa.

That feels dirty. I get it if more than 1 team is tied it might work out that you are below a team you beat (Wisc below Iowa) but essentially after the first metric there is a head to head tie. Why not look at head to head record at that point?

And it is not record vs. Maryland that is the decider because they were a part of the round robin comparison in 1b. Their record against the #7 school was the decider which happened to be OSU.

 

[OC_Hawk]

That feels dirty. I get it if more than 1 team is tied it might work out that you are below a team you beat (Wisc below Iowa) but essentially after the first metric there is a head to head tie. Why not look at head to head record at that point?

And it is not record vs. Maryland that is the decider because they were a part of the round robin comparison in 1b. Their record against the #7 school was the decider which happened to be OSU.

That feels very dirty. What a stupid tie-breaker rule.

 

[El Simbolo]

See other thread. Overall Conf record of your Conf opponents should be the top tiebreaker, or maybe after head to head

 

[OC_Hawk]

See other thread. Overall Conf record of your Conf opponents should be the top tiebreaker, or maybe after head to head

Yeah, well you know, that's just, like, your opinion man.

 

[GoHawks2009]

I'll take the 2 seed please. Because that means we'll have at least righted the ship with wins over Indiana and Michigan.

The 4 might seem the most favorable, getting potentially Purdue and Maryland in the Qtrs and Semies respectively (hypotheticals and what not)....but what better way to impress the committee before Selection Sunday, than to first get revenge on either Ohio State or f***-Penn State-and-their-try-hard-3-pt-shooting, and then beating Michigan State for a 3rd time in the semies, when they most likely won't be at their try-hardiest and will still need the refs to have a major influence in order to win. Remember, Izzo's teams play their hardest in the really big games so they'd have to elevate their game another level for any Finals matchup and I'd rather not face that, plus the Izzo refs in the Finals.

They're at least more vulnerable in a semifinal matchup.

And if we take care of business in this impossible dream scenario, then we can have our revenge on Maryland in the Finals.......or beat up on Indiana/Purdue again (assuming Iowa does the also-impossible and pulls their heads out of their collective giant arse and wins tonight).

You're welcome.