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Expectations (temper them)

BrewHawk

HB Heisman
Jul 21, 2004
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We just lost probably the best all-around women's basketball player in the history of the game as well as Molly, Kate and Gabbie.

An obvious point, but we're going to need to be patient with Jan and the ladies as Iowa women's basketball is going to look totally different than it has the past four years and there will be a lot more bumps in the road along the way. Still should be some fun to watch though.
 
Teams overcome the loss of stars, even generational ones. And Jan is putting together a team. It won't have the national POY, probably, but it will have parts that will make an outstanding team. Jan is planning to use full-court pressure and a few other things that should help compensate for the loss of CC. And don't forget this: Winning by 3 points counts the same as winning by 23. So while Iowa may not blow teams out as often, they might win just about as many games. And even if they don't, they'll be competitive, entertaining, and well coached. We can count on that.
 
I just added this post in a different thread that highlights the spacing challenges that Jan faces with this roster. I think they can generally run the same scheme, but the actions they focus on will be much different because Lucy's game is more mid-range, and they won't have nearly the spacing this year they had last year.

They shot an effective FG% of 57.9% last year as a team which was ridiculous. They may be lucky to get to 50-51% this year. Maybe their defense / rebounding could be better though to offset it somewhat.

The post had shot chart examples that illustrate the challenge a bit better:

https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/threads/jan-jensen-names-her-starting-5.453493/post-12543775
 
I just added this post in a different thread that highlights the spacing challenges that Jan faces with this roster. I think they can generally run the same scheme, but the actions they focus on will be much different because Lucy's game is more mid-range, and they won't have nearly the spacing this year they had last year.

They shot an effective FG% of 57.9% last year as a team which was ridiculous. They may be lucky to get to 50-51% this year. Maybe their defense / rebounding could be better though to offset it somewhat.

The post had shot chart examples that illustrate the challenge a bit better:

https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/threads/jan-jensen-names-her-starting-5.453493/post-12543775

Good post as are all the above posts. I think Hannah moving to 4 and Ava with her size, mobility and talent, with terrific back-up and the post changes Iowa's character both on offense and defense. We will not be anemic at guard either. We won't have the WOW factor, but if Jada is ready to meet expectations and Teegan is game ready, the frontline can be a strength.

3 point shooting should be covered. Really anxious to see Stremlow's game.

At my age you should never want time to move faster, but I can't wait to see the 2025 class. WOW.
 
Excellent observations by everyone above. I generally expected Bluder to have five starters who played 25-35 minutes and three bench players picking up the rest of the meaningful minutes. Will Jensen have a similar pattern?

here’s my starters by Conference starts (5 of these 6):
Olsen
McCabe
Feuerbach
Affolter
Stuelke
Heiden

Top Reserves:
One of the above, plus…
O’Grady

And then I dunno. Ediger and Gyamfi know the system. I don’t want to over-hype the frosh, but Mallegni could be there.

There’s ten names to fill my theoretical eight positions.
 
They shot an effective FG% of 57.9% last year as a team which was ridiculous. They may be lucky to get to 50-51% this year.
I’m OK with a lower FG% this year if that’s the way it shakes out. At least we graduated that PG ball hog who would launch those low percentage shots a few dribbles past mid-court. I can’t remember how many times I e-mailed coach Lisa Bluder about this but she never responded and she never corrected it. Basketball 101. Good riddance.
 
Spit Take Lol GIF by Justin
 
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If you create a "temper expectations" post and talk about players who AREN'T on the team, you're the one who is misleading. Stop looking in the rear view mirror and anchoring to last year. Look at the current roster with honest eyes.

We have above average starters at 4 positions:

Olsen
McCabe (yes, I'm going out on a limb here)
Affolter
Stuelke

Heiden could be average at the 5. Or even above average. How many teams that have that kind of lineup struggle?

Iowa will be hosting the first round NCAA game.

(But I won't be an angry poster when we struggle. It comes with sports.)
 
If you create a "temper expectations" post and talk about players who AREN'T on the team, you're the one who is misleading. Stop looking in the rear view mirror and anchoring to last year. Look at the current roster with honest eyes.

We have above average starters at 4 positions:

Olsen
McCabe (yes, I'm going out on a limb here)
Affolter
Stuelke

Heiden could be average at the 5. Or even above average. How many teams that have that kind of lineup struggle?

Iowa will be hosting the first round NCAA game.

(But I won't be an angry poster when we struggle. It comes with sports.)
Just to quibble with you a little bit, I think Olsen is more than above average 😉
 
If you create a "temper expectations" post and talk about players who AREN'T on the team, you're the one who is misleading. Stop looking in the rear view mirror and anchoring to last year. Look at the current roster with honest eyes.

We have above average starters at 4 positions:

Olsen
McCabe (yes, I'm going out on a limb here)
Affolter
Stuelke

Heiden could be average at the 5. Or even above average. How many teams that have that kind of lineup struggle?

Iowa will be hosting the first round NCAA game.

(But I won't be an angry poster when we struggle. It comes with sports.)
Get those freshman ready for Deal, Houston, Hays
 
Hosting the first 2 rounds means you're a top 16 seed in the tourney. That is going to be difficult this year. Expectations for this team should be top half of Big Ten and 2nd round in the NCAAs. Anything better than that would be a big success considering the losses from last year. Finishing in a top 3 spot in the Big Ten should give Jan strong consideration for B1G coach of the year because of what we had to replace.

This team does have sweet sixteen potential considering the tourney experience that the returners have. But as we see with the men's team, many teams with that level of potential fail to meet it.
 
Hosting the first 2 rounds means you're a top 16 seed in the tourney. That is going to be difficult this year. Expectations for this team should be top half of Big Ten and 2nd round in the NCAAs. Anything better than that would be a big success considering the losses from last year. Finishing in a top 3 spot in the Big Ten should give Jan strong consideration for B1G coach of the year because of what we had to replace.

This team does have sweet sixteen potential considering the tourney experience that the returners have. But as we see with the men's team, many teams with that level of potential fail to meet it.
This team should be a top-16 seed. They have the talent.
 
This team should be a top-16 seed. They have the talent.
But USC, UCLA, OSU, Maryland, Nebraska, and Indiana are all preseason top-25 teams in our conference, with Illinois and MSU just outside the top 25 where we are too. Plus we have preseason top 10 ISU on our schedule too.

Even if we have the talent to be a top 16 seed, it will be hard to get there because there's a lot of other teams that we're playing against that have that talent level too and that may lead to enough losses to keep us out of that level. On the flip side it also gives us an opportunity to earn an even better seed.

I'm just saying that as an Iowa fan, and the history we've had with our basketball teams, I'm not holding my breath for a sweet sixteen this year. For the first time in probably 7-8 years we don't have the best player in the Big Ten on our team.
 
If you are an Iowa fan you should probably try and temper your expectations in all Iowa sports. They just disappoint and frustrate except when Iowa has a CC. I am there and have been for several years now.
 
Should be interesting to revisit this thread once we've actually seen the team play. Unless anyone has been to practices, it's difficult to judge how good they are, or how good they can be at this point. ---> We were playing with Kate, Gabbie, and Caitlin for a long time.
 
But USC, UCLA, OSU, Maryland, Nebraska, and Indiana are all preseason top-25 teams in our conference, with Illinois and MSU just outside the top 25 where we are too. Plus we have preseason top 10 ISU on our schedule too.

Even if we have the talent to be a top 16 seed, it will be hard to get there because there's a lot of other teams that we're playing against that have that talent level too and that may lead to enough losses to keep us out of that level. On the flip side it also gives us an opportunity to earn an even better seed.

I'm just saying that as an Iowa fan, and the history we've had with our basketball teams, I'm not holding my breath for a sweet sixteen this year. For the first time in probably 7-8 years we don't have the best player in the Big Ten on our team.
An unknown will be whether or not the experience of reaching consecutive title games will allow them an edge vs other teams once the tourney begins. Even if you're someone like McCabe, who hardly played, seems like this would be a positive.
 
But USC, UCLA, OSU, Maryland, Nebraska, and Indiana are all preseason top-25 teams in our conference, with Illinois and MSU just outside the top 25 where we are too. Plus we have preseason top 10 ISU on our schedule too.

Even if we have the talent to be a top 16 seed, it will be hard to get there because there's a lot of other teams that we're playing against that have that talent level too and that may lead to enough losses to keep us out of that level. On the flip side it also gives us an opportunity to earn an even better seed.

I'm just saying that as an Iowa fan, and the history we've had with our basketball teams, I'm not holding my breath for a sweet sixteen this year. For the first time in probably 7-8 years we don't have the best player in the Big Ten on our team.
I agree, they have to beat teams to be top 16. Iowa does have 20% of the preseason all Big Ten players on their team. I think they are being dramatically underestimated.
 
I am really looking forward to this season. Clearly the style of play will change when you lose the most dynamic transition player to ever play the game.. so it will be interesting to see how JJ adapts to current roster and maybe a more traditional starting lineup, how Stuelke changes her game with no CC, how Lucky Olsen runs the game, Affolter taking a major step forward, etc etc.

I think they'll be very good. We have three players who I believe will average 15+ points per game. Without looking, I'm guessing there were very few if any teams in the country last year that could say that.

Good chance I'm being too optimistic but 🤷‍♂️
 
But USC, UCLA, OSU, Maryland, Nebraska, and Indiana are all preseason top-25 teams in our conference, with Illinois and MSU just outside the top 25 where we are too. Plus we have preseason top 10 ISU on our schedule too.

Even if we have the talent to be a top 16 seed, it will be hard to get there because there's a lot of other teams that we're playing against that have that talent level too and that may lead to enough losses to keep us out of that level. On the flip side it also gives us an opportunity to earn an even better seed.

I'm just saying that as an Iowa fan, and the history we've had with our basketball teams, I'm not holding my breath for a sweet sixteen this year. For the first time in probably 7-8 years we don't have the best player in the Big Ten on our team.
Do you suppose Lucy broke her pencil when she read this post? Do young people even use pencils any more? Is loaded up USC really in the big 10. Will Ju Ju make it through her college years without a major injury like Clark did, and thus break her scoring record? Yes, Yes, Yes, and No.
 
But USC, UCLA, OSU, Maryland, Nebraska, and Indiana are all preseason top-25 teams in our conference, with Illinois and MSU just outside the top 25 where we are too. Plus we have preseason top 10 ISU on our schedule too.

Even if we have the talent to be a top 16 seed, it will be hard to get there because there's a lot of other teams that we're playing against that have that talent level too and that may lead to enough losses to keep us out of that level. On the flip side it also gives us an opportunity to earn an even better seed.

I'm just saying that as an Iowa fan, and the history we've had with our basketball teams, I'm not holding my breath for a sweet sixteen this year. For the first time in probably 7-8 years we don't have the best player in the Big Ten on our team.
Its early to say we don't have the best player in the league when no games have been played. Things happen. Injuries happen. Olsen will be no slouch in her own right. It should be a fun year, and there are some ladies chomping at the bit for their chance to shine.....
 
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Do you suppose Lucy broke her pencil when she read this post? Do young people even use pencils any more? Is loaded up USC really in the big 10. Will Ju Ju make it through her college years without a major injury like Clark did, and thus break her scoring record? Yes, Yes, Yes, and No.
USC brought in a bunch of talent. Top class I believe. Will they be as dependent on JuJu to score almost 30 every night the next THREE years straight to break CC22's record? I'll bet against that. Also CC NEVER missed a game in college. Thats a tall task as well......
 
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USC brought in a bunch of talent. Top class I believe. Will they be as dependent on JuJu to score almost 30 every night the next THREE years straight to break CC22's record? I'll bet against that. Also CC NEVER missed a game in college. Thats a tall task as well......
Caitlin also played in the maximum number of games possible her last two years at Iowa. It will be hard for any player to ever match that.
 
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USC brought in a bunch of talent. Top class I believe. Will they be as dependent on JuJu to score almost 30 every night the next THREE years straight to break CC22's record? I'll bet against that. Also CC NEVER missed a game in college. Thats a tall task as well......
Watkins is incredible. I wouldn't put it past her to average 30 a game this year. Staying healthy for a full career in the Big Ten has to be nearly impossible.. incredible CC never got hurt (though i thought maybe she missed a game because of the flu or something? I'm probably wrong)
 
Watkins is incredible. I wouldn't put it past her to average 30 a game this year. Staying healthy for a full career in the Big Ten has to be nearly impossible.. incredible CC never got hurt (though i thought maybe she missed a game because of the flu or something? I'm probably wrong)
CC never missed a game, AND played in the maximum number of games possible the last two years. Thats one factor. While I agree that Watkins is a great player, and should improve, I still think she'll have more overall talent around her (based on their current recruiting) which should spread the shots available around to more players. I highly doubt that all that young talent is going to want to stand around and watch her drop 51 in a game again like she did last year where she scored all but like 16 points in the ENTIRE game. I think she had 51 of their 67 points in that game or something like that.
 
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An unknown will be whether or not the experience of reaching consecutive title games will allow them an edge vs other teams once the tourney begins. Even if you're someone like McCabe, who hardly played, seems like this would be a positive.
Between Big championship games and Final Four games Stuelke has 139 minutes of playing time, Afforlter 137 minutes, O'Grady 50 minutes. Feuerbach and McCabe have time too. Outside of some South Carolina players, no players have any any where close to this amount of big time experience.

And, having played in these type of games gives them a lot of confidence and poise. Whether they win or lose a game, I expect this team will be fearless.
 
"requires players to be at least 22, to have completed their college eligibility, to have graduated from a four-year college or to be four years removed from high school".
Chap GPT lied to me!

I'm surprised the draft requirements are so strict
 
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Do you suppose Lucy broke her pencil when she read this post? Do young people even use pencils any more? Is loaded up USC really in the big 10. Will Ju Ju make it through her college years without a major injury like Clark did, and thus break her scoring record? Yes, Yes, Yes, and No.
Agreed except for the third point. Look at how many people started 4 years of college and suffered not even a minor injury derailing them a couple weeks. If that happens twice in three years she's basically toast without 3 consecutive final four runs and even then it is highly unlikely. And as others have already pointed out good god conference play is going to be brutal and even more so for the west coast teams.

(not to mention the glut of elite players on the team demanding the ball- not something that was a problem for CC as we all know)
 
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