I think this increase and the fed comments cause concerns of a “soft landing” many were hoping/talking.
Fed raises rates 75 bps
- Thread starter luvmyhawks
- Start date
Best I’ve seen up here is 5/1 arm for like 4.75% but most are 5%+
Thanks
I’m actually referring to homeowners who bought in last couple years with ARMs that willl reset at much higher rates in the coming year or two. I’ve never had one of those so don’t know exactly how it works.
Arms were around 2.5/2.75 at their lowest if I remember correctly. After the five year the interest rate can only go up 2% I think is the rule
Glad we purchased in January 2021 as prices went higher and now interest rates. Locked in at 2.5% while paying extra.
The market just keeps repricing rate expectations 'higher for longer' against its will...
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
It’s a bit of both. I actually emailed my mortgage person today about ARM, and they advised against it right now- suggested I request sellers offer a buy down if I can.
I know ideally I can refinance a rate, I can’t refinance a purchase price.
just for me it’s a sliding scale- my “buying power” goes down with each rate increase as home prices simultaneously drop.
No- I’m talking since rate hikes. Take a look at where selling prices are heading. I just took a quick look at supply of homes in my area as well as prices, and they’re falling.
Laughing about interest rates going up that prevent people from buying homes doesn’t necessarily mean you’re doing better.
Zillow says +0.3% in the last 30 days.
Now it's a bit higher than 2x what I bought it for.
Yeah, and you think that’s something that will hold at 10% mortgage rates? Prices can come down, and we’ve already seen it on a national level. We played a game of musical chairs in ‘21-‘22. Some made out (me). While others are fd and cannot buy anything decent right now unless they have cash.
But it can turn- at .3% increase in selling price adjusted for inflation, you’re losing 5% a year.
I get what you are saying but prices aren't going to fall that much. I suspect, based upon region, we are going to be looking at about a 10% drop in prices. Some places might be a bit more and some a bit less. The things preventing it from falling further is a shortage of inventory that isn't going away anytime soon.
That’s a lot of cash. 10% of selling price going down? While everything else is going up at at least 8%? You have to adjust for inflation in this economy.
Nope
Stated that here many many times already.
But I'm not planning on selling anytime, soon, and have ample equity in the place.
Time to walk back the posts Joe. I assume masks don’t reduce fatalities by 9000% anymore as well?
Nah.
I've got > $0.5M in equity locked in.
Inflation is temporary, and will re-adjust once the war in Europe dies down.
What posts? Go search for what I've posted; housing has been due for an adjustment for a while now.
Well if you aren't selling it doesn't really matter.
Let's say Joe bought the house for 300k and now it's worth 600k. If it drops 60k down to 540k, he is still way ahead. Especially since he probably has x years worth of paying down on the principal so he probably only owes about 150k in our hypothetical example. That's still ~400k worth of equity.
Loss of equity being downplayed is pretty stupid. What if, (god forbid) he gets in some sort of serious accident or runs into health issues that require downsizing or loss of income?
He’s stuck with his dick in his hand making out with less money and paying property taxes and utilities he can no longer afford.
Tell your friend there are lots of fixer uppers in SW Florida, and plenty of flood prone areas to build in. Make sure he has plenty in reserve to rebuild.
This. Houses are sitting on market for months. Vs selling for 5-7 percent more than asking in 24 hours. Great time to buy with aggressive offer 20 percent or more less than asking. Then refinance when the rates inevitably go down and house value goes up! It all has a way of working out.
Yep
Get aggressive on offers. Wait out the storm, because interest rates or no, we're well overdue for a correction here.
At least in my area.
I manage a sales team in the industry purchase is still strong and will continue to be. Have seen a decline in prices due to the inflation and affordability and should continue seeing prices decline but eventually stabilize. Those recommending to wait 6-12 months I would absolutely not do that. Buying a house is all about timing when the right thing comes along, you should absolutely move on it. ARM products are popular right now because the initial rate is lower than fixed but there are lenders offering temporary buy down products on fixed rates which are always popular in this environment. Rocket calls this ‘Inflation Buster’ clever marketing but any lender can beat their rates by a mile. I follow and read a ton of analyst who cover Mortgage and MBS trends and all signs are pointing to rates going back down in 18-20 months so do a 5 year ARM to give yourself some cushion then refinance when they drop because it’ll absolutely be beneficial to do so. Market has turned in buyers favor so I’ve seen situations where sellers are willing to drop price or pay for cost to help buyers qualify so there’s actually incentives to buying with the current market environment. Find an agent who’s got solid negotiating skills and you’ll be taken care of.
Lots of options in that scenario
1) I'm sure a guy like Joe has a solid savings built up.
2) He could get a new job
3) if it's an accident, I hope he has good insurance coverage. Joe might be arrogant but he's smart in that sense.
4) I'm assuming Joe is in a "mid tier" home, not a starter home. Worst case he could sell the home for 540k and take the 400k in equity and buy a 400k starter home and its paid off.
Finally, I'm not really sure what you are arguing here. Are you saying having equity is a bad thing?
The point is that he was sitting on $50k of liquidity and now he’s not. Seriously, home equity is about the only realizable asset for 99% of people of working age other than their own ability to work. Losing a whole chunk of it and shrugging your shoulders is exactly why wealth is consolidated. No- exactly the opposite. Equity is the only thing most people have and losing it while giving an oh shucks is pretty boneheaded.
I'd wager that Joe's 401k accounts are as much or more than his equity in his house.
Again, you keep looking at today's value and not the bigger picture.
That’s a 401k account. That’s not a realizable asset unless he is of age- and if he’s not of age, likely an absolutely awful financial decision.
The bigger picture is sitting for years hoping your asset goes back to normal while opening yourself up to countless risks. Decline in real asset values is not good unless you’re sitting on mountains of cash to reinvest.
You'll be fine. Buy what you want/need (and can afford) then refi in a couple of years.
Buying a house is like any investment. Theirs a risk in adverse market conditions but we’re not talking about an environment like 2008 it’s much more regulated and housing prices are fairly stable even given unexpected aggressive inflation. Playing the ‘what if’ game is negligent to the buying process. I get every buyer should assess their buying power and if it’s the right time. Should they buy a house if they anticipate a job/income change? Probably not but to assess buying a house or not on something unpredictable is ridiculous. A serious accident or illness isn’t a planned event.. there’s ways to help in those situations with both lender and insurance. The ‘what if’ game can take you down any rabbit hole you want if you’re talking about an unpredictable event.
The housing market went up by at least 10% annualized for the past couple years. It was not realistic. So, a 10% correction really just brings it down to where it should have been.
Again, Joe and many others are in no danger whatsoever. We bought our house a few years ago and can't be sitting in a better position. Equity aside (and we have a ton of it), we have a fixed rate of 2.75%. Crazy low. Plus, we have enough savings to float us for quite a while if needed. We live WAY below our means and I'm sure a guy like Joe does too. Our mortgage payment is about 5% of our gross pay.
Lol. Wouldn’t recommend this method. Sure, rates will come down- don’t worry, just lock yourself in at a a high purchase price and refinance. We’re you born in 2007?
Pontificating that this isn’t ‘08 is wishful thinking. Inputs on construction are insane, interest rates are all but guaranteed to keep rising. Now would be a great time to buy if you’re interested in being upside down.
You clearly don’t follow the housing market nor do you understand historical market trends. Your statement is uneducated and ridiculous
Again you’re not educated in this as well as I am and your ridiculous statements prove that. I’m not wasting any more time on replying to you because you’re an idiot.
