FiveThirtyEight Forecast on early and super Tuesday states
- Thread starter royhobbs2
- Start date
Yes you are right. Nothing suspicious at all with the iowa primary. Nothing to see here, move along.
Is this actually accurate? I went through the 538 stuff earlier tonight and a lot of those states haven’t had state polling for months. I swear Biden or Warren led in some.
I think Bernies best hope is that Biden, Pete, and Bloomberg split votes but still wonder if he can get enough delegates to win straight up.
Their model seems to be really overreacting to Iowa, but what's not baked in is the drawn out, protracted result, and what seems almost certain to be a split decision. I believe there are four more debates before Super Tuesday, if Pete looks like the competent one compared to Joe, I think more and more people are going to start jumping ship from Biden, especially if Pete ends up finishing a solid second in NH.
There's a ton of very viable paths opening up for Bernie, not so much for Joe. I dont think Bloomberg will do well once he hits the debate stages. What I find particularly odd is trying square Nate's model with current betting odds for Bloomberg. Nate has him at 0.6%, Oddshark has him at +350. I think there's just way to many historically unprecedented wildcards in this primary year to try to make a model out of this that relies so heavy on past trends.
There's a ton of very viable paths opening up for Bernie, not so much for Joe. I dont think Bloomberg will do well once he hits the debate stages. What I find particularly odd is trying square Nate's model with current betting odds for Bloomberg. Nate has him at 0.6%, Oddshark has him at +350. I think there's just way to many historically unprecedented wildcards in this primary year to try to make a model out of this that relies so heavy on past trends.
Go Bernie!
Because having two 80 year old white guys shouting at each other in a contest to see who can leave America in worse condition after they’re dead in 10 years is really what the county needs.
Because having two 80 year old white guys shouting at each other in a contest to see who can leave America in worse condition after they’re dead in 10 years is really what the county needs.
Cheer them up by telling them that soon they'll be able to go get a Women's Studies degree and a sex change for free.
