For the good of the order ...
- Thread starter AuroraHawk
- Start date
Illinois has the best route to the finish. Note: Illinois doesn't have to play Rutgers or Michigan. Of the top 5 teams, Illinois is the only team that avoids two of the other four. Iowa avoids Maryland. Maryland avoids Iowa. Michigan avoids Illinois. Rutgers avoids Illinois. That written, Illinois is sitting at 19-17 overall with 9 B1G games left and a home weekend non-con series against (#245 RPI) Miami (OH). Its only other mid-week game is hosting (#90 RPI) Indiana State. (Gritting my teeth as I type this thinking of a certain 2 strike/2 out T9 game tying hit) With 13 games left, they'll have to play great baseball to get to 30 regular season wins.
Rutgers, Maryland and Michigan must still play one another.
Iowa's schedule is favorable but they really cannot afford a bad series (translation: cannot lose 2/3 in any series) or a mid-week gag job.
Finishing 17-7 in the B1G gives them a real shot but it will depend upon how the rest of the league performs. As of right now, I expect Illinois and Maryland to finish 1-2 (in some order). If it plays out that way, Iowa will be battling Michigan and Rutgers for 3rd place.
Really hoping that OSU can grab at least 1/3 against Rutgers (in Columbus); Indiana can grab at least 1/3 against Illinois (in Bloomington); Purdue can grab at least 1/3 against Michigan (at West Lafayette) and Northwestern can grab at least 1/3 against Maryland (at College Park).
Notably, of the top 5 teams, only Maryland is playing at home this weekend.
B1G schedules finishing out:
1st Place: Rutgers (12-3): @OSU (3-10); Maryland (9-3); @Michigan (8-4)
2nd Place: Illinois (11-4): @Indiana (4-8); Nebraska (5-7); @PSU (7-8)
3rd Place: Maryland (9-3): Northwestern (6-6); @Rutgers (12-3); Michigan (8-4); @Purdue (4-6)
4th Place (t): Iowa (8-4): @Nebraska (5-7); Purdue (4-6); @MSU (3-9); Indiana (4-8)
4th Place (t): Michigan (8-4): @Purdue (4-6); Indiana (4-8); @Maryland (9-3); Rutgers (12-3)
At this juncture, I'd be more than happy if Rutgers/Maryland/Michigan end up with identical 3-3 records against one another.
Also, FWIW, the B1G Baseball podcast is a decent production. I listen to it every week. It's not going to win any awards for excellence but I find it instructive as to what is going on across the league.
Interesting statistics - Record against Q1 and Q2 teams:
Rutgers (3-3): Q1 (1-0); Q2 (2-3): Remainder - 3 games against Q1; 3 games Q2
Illinois (4-10): Q1 (2-4); Q2 (4-6): Remainder - No Q1/Q2
Maryland (12-5): Q1 (1-2); Q2 (11-3): Remainder - 6 games against Q2
Iowa (11-9): Q1 (1-2); Q2 (10-7): Remainder - No Q1/Q2
Michigan (4-11): Q1 (2-6); Q2 (2-5): Remainder - 3 Q1; 3 Q2 (Rutgers almost a Q1)
Thus, by season's end, here is (as of right now) total Q1/Q2 games that will have been played:
Rutgers (12)
Illinois (14)
Maryland (23)
Iowa (20)
Michigan (21)
Looking at Iowa's opponents, I don't believe that Air Force (#109) can play its way from a Q3 to a Q2. Bradley (#112) has a chance to play its way from a Q3 to a Q2. Pepperdine (#98) is on the verge of losing Q2 status. WSU (#78) has a fairly tough schedule. Not outside the realm of possibility that they could lose Q2 status.
Didn't look at the other teams to see how their prior opponents may fall on the RPI ladder.
Rutgers (3-3): Q1 (1-0); Q2 (2-3): Remainder - 3 games against Q1; 3 games Q2
Illinois (4-10): Q1 (2-4); Q2 (4-6): Remainder - No Q1/Q2
Maryland (12-5): Q1 (1-2); Q2 (11-3): Remainder - 6 games against Q2
Iowa (11-9): Q1 (1-2); Q2 (10-7): Remainder - No Q1/Q2
Michigan (4-11): Q1 (2-6); Q2 (2-5): Remainder - 3 Q1; 3 Q2 (Rutgers almost a Q1)
Thus, by season's end, here is (as of right now) total Q1/Q2 games that will have been played:
Rutgers (12)
Illinois (14)
Maryland (23)
Iowa (20)
Michigan (21)
Looking at Iowa's opponents, I don't believe that Air Force (#109) can play its way from a Q3 to a Q2. Bradley (#112) has a chance to play its way from a Q3 to a Q2. Pepperdine (#98) is on the verge of losing Q2 status. WSU (#78) has a fairly tough schedule. Not outside the realm of possibility that they could lose Q2 status.
Didn't look at the other teams to see how their prior opponents may fall on the RPI ladder.
Ha! I checked the weather and was dismayed that it appeared to be sunny and in low 40s. Maybe they can hire Crash Davis for a stealth and surreptitious sabotage and get a “rain out.”
Speaking of weather, rain is predicted in Lincoln most of the weekend. Ugh.
I'd be all for that, although the bus trip probably sucks just to play 1 game (just under 4 hours).
If you are going to play a team that sucks that bad at least play them on the road, Macomb IL is only a 2 hour bus ride and then you'd at least get a road win. But I'm sure when they created the schedule they had no idea WIU would be 4-32.
D1 Baseball chat right now thinks three teams from the Big Ten. They say Maryland, Rutgers (for now), and one of Iowa/Illinois/Michigan.
Kendall said he would have Iowa in over Illinois and Michigan right now.
Need to finish 3-0 in midweeks. 9-3 finish in conference play gets you to 17-7.
Even though Iowa lost 2/3 to Illinois, Illinois is 19-17 and ~12 spots below Iowa in RPI. They have a really easy end of season too, but far less room for error imo.
I listened to the podcast (about 45 minutes long) as I mowed the lawn last evening.
A fair amount of praise thrown Iowa's direction - particularly towards Mazur and Shultz. The Heller interview was decent; no major revelations. Heller likes where Iowa sits right now. Gave the standard "can't look ahead; only focus on the team that you are playing" response.
Lots of discussion about schedules. Predictably, hosts agreed that Illinois and Iowa's schedules are favorable and that Michigan, Maryland and Rutgers have the chance to beat each other up.
Hosts are still very "high" on Rutgers' chances; they feel as if Rutgers will handle OSU over the weekend.
Some discussion about the teams in the lower part of the B1G standings and how those teams may be motivated to earn a spot in the B1G tournament. Nebraska (sitting in 8th place), Indiana and Purdue fighting for the last spot. All three of those teams host teams sitting in the top 5. Iowa at Nebraska; Illinois at Indiana; Michigan at Purdue.
I hadn't given much thought to the fight for B1G tournament qualification. I think that the hosts make a good point. Nebraska was a early season conference favorite but have lost a bevy of close games. They may very well be of a mindset that, if they can get to the tournament, they have a chance to win it and go to the NCAAs. They'd certainly like to be a roadblock to a rival team's chances. As others have noted here, this upcoming series (coming off a big series win in NJ) is one that makes me very nervous. Of the remaining 4 teams, I feel as if Nebraska has the best talent.
