Fort Dodge will have to make up ground with bonus points. Not deep enough up and down the lineup to top Southeast Polk, otherwise. Their lineup through the first 5 weights though is arguably the best in the state.
The struggle with schools like theirs is at the heavier weights. Btw, a fun fact while I was looking some things up on the heavier weights across Iowa HS wrestling, 8 of the last 10 heavyweight champions have come from eastern Iowa schools (3 from W-SR). I'd consider Marshalltown as central Iowa though it is a ways east of I-35.
I think it depends on a couple of factors. If SE Polk or Valley have several of their guys outperform their rankings again they'll certainly be tough to beat. That happened last year where Fort Dodge had one guy fall off (K. Cook - ranked 3rd, didn't place) while SEP had a couple of guys come out of nowhere (Jones - unranked, finished 6th; Padavich - 9th, finished 4th).
Fort Dodge loses points scorers (S. Cook-1st, K. Cook-DNP, Egli-5th and Detmering-DNP)
Fort Dodge gains point scorers (Ayala - projected 3rd-6th, Franklin & Dornath - TBD)
*Franklin & Dornath both finished top 10 at the 39 team field, CB Classic, and should be threats to score points at state. Not enough matches in to reasonably project where they would fall.
Reasonable potential to improve on 2015 placement (Bennett - 3rd, will be ranked 1st in new rankings; Lockner - 8th, currently ranked 6th; C. Lara - 8th, currently ranked 4th)
SEP loses point scorers (Jones-6th; Padavich-4th; Andersen-2nd; Ramirez-3rd)
SEP gains point scorers ( Ames-6th; DeVos-1st; Brand-9th; Babcock-9th)
Reasonable potential to improve on 2015 placement (Barnes - 3rd, ranked 1st; Perrien - 3rd, ranked 2nd)
Bracket placement...
Without seeding, #2 ranked SEP wrestlers (Lendt, Perrian & Brown) could end up on the same side as Lara, Teske and Midkiff.
The same could potentially happen again with Bennett-Biscoglia although Bennett as of now will be ranked #1.
How do the low seeded guys do....
Last year this made a big difference with K. Cook (FD) not placing and Jones and Padavich (SEP) finishing in the top 6. If Brand and Babcock, both currently ranked 9th, can follow suit, FD would have a tough hill to climb. Likewise, if Franklin and Dornath step up and score points for FD, it will help balance their stout lower weight lineup.
Bonus points....
FD will need to improve on their 2015 bonus point scoring
Teske only recorded 1 fall; Bennett had 2 decisions in the consolation bracket, Lockner only had 1 bonus point match
I didn't cover Valley but that doesn't mean I'm ignoring them. They probably have the best depth and will be a factor in the duals and the tournament. One odd thing, The Predicament lists them with 11 ranked wrestlers and I went through the list 3 times and can only count 10. They don't have a ranked wrestler now at 113,132,170 and 285.