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Fran's Continual Missing On Recruits

Because Fran has done so well in that regard , comn man His PG recruiting has been horrific. He has gotten some nice bigs I would give Him that.

Completely unfair. Cartwrite was a good pg. Mike was a very good pg, maybe not what we all thought he might be but very good. JBO is a very good pg. Again, you might not like him but by any measure he's very good. He whiffed on CW, he whiffed on Dickerson but mostly he's done ok. Now he's missed on some pretty big fish in hindsight but to say his recruiting of pg's is horrific is wrong. He needs another good one and hopefully he has him in his son and he will bring in a great one next.
 
Completely unfair. Cartwrite was a good pg. Mike was a very good pg, maybe not what we all thought he might be but very good. JBO is a very good pg. Again, you might not like him but by any measure he's very good. He whiffed on CW, he whiffed on Dickerson but mostly he's done ok. Now he's missed on some pretty big fish in hindsight but to say his recruiting of pg's is horrific is wrong. He needs another good one and hopefully he has him in his son and he will bring in a great one next.

His son on the roster will be a huge burden to recruiting a PG who wants to start immediately. Other teams will use this against Fran.
 
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I can...

154614390.jpg.0.jpg

Barta needs to see a dentist. That is inexcusable
wow so is your comment. Way to body shame mr. Perfect
 
13th was last season when Iowa was in a 3 way tie 1 game ahead of last place Rutgers. I went backwards from the present. Also I didn't apply any "tiebreakers" to standings, was just contrasting with the poster I replied to that considered Iowa at the top of all ties in standings what it'd look like if they were at the bottom of those ties.

That’s like saying if two teams are co champions, they both get 2nd place. Or worse, a three way tie, they got third.
 
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I’m new to this board, but have been a Hawk fan for over 40 years, and God knows, I’ve had my fair share of heartbreaks and disappointments, falling to UNLV in the elite 8, after being up by almost 20-points at the half, stung the most.

Losing DJ is a big deal, but another subpar season or failing to make the dance would be catastrophic. Fran has the kind of roster that can reward him with a great season. Jordan, in my opinion, is underrated and under appreciated, Fran’s son is way better than most people realize, Weiskamp can make an immediate impact, Iowa bigs are talented, and the bench is deep. To me, the only wildcard is the coaching staff.

Even for an old patient guy like me, the next two seasons are all I can stomach of Fran and the gang if things don’t turn around. The crazy substitution schemes, the lackadaisical defense, the long losing streaks, and Fran’s erratic courtside behavior have worn me off, and even though this is an unfair comparison to Fran, and I apologize to his ardent fans, I felt as exasperated last year as I did during Lick’s era.

Having said all that, I think and I hope that the next season is the one that marks a memorable turning point in Iowa basketball future.

Go Hawks!

Very fair post
 
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His son on the roster will be a huge burden to recruiting a PG who wants to start immediately. Other teams will use this against Fran.

The same son who avg 13.3 minutes per game in four games? Several of those minutes came in mop up duty. The son who attempted 3 total field goals in four games? The same son who started zero of the four games he played in? A recruit should be scared of that?

Fran has shown zero favoritism when it’s come to CM on the court. I’d think a few on campus visits and talking to the other players would tell you the rest.
 
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The same son who avg 13.3 minutes per game in four games? Several of those minutes came in mop up duty. The son who attempted 3 total field goals in four games? The same son who started zero of the four games he played in? A recruit should be scared of that?

Fran has shown zero favoritism when it’s come to CM on the court. I’d think a few on campus visits and talking to the other players would tell you the rest.

To be fair he was coming off Mono. Its not an accurate gauge one way or the other.
 
To be fair he was coming off Mono. Its not an accurate gauge one way or the other.

Several have their minds already set.

It’s definitely a small sample size, but here are the minutes per game from guards:

Player: (mpg total) / (mpg w/ CM) / (mpg w/o CM)

Bohannon: 31.8 (all games) / 27.5 ( w/ CM) / 32.41 (w/o CM)

Moss: 24.2 (all games) / 24.75 (w/ CM) / 24.10 (w/o CM)

Dailey: 16.5 (all games) / 19.75 w/ CM) / 16.0 (w/o CM)

*three of these games were blow out wins, the fourth game was vs Colorado.
 
Villanova hasn't been top 10 because they have had extremely small classes over that period, with an average class size of 3 recruits. It's extremely difficult to make the top 10 with only three players signed because the rankings include both quantity and quality. Meanwhile when you actually look at their roster it's filled with elite recruits; multiple 5 star recruits and a bunch of extremely high 4 stars. On an average recruit basis, those rosters were EASILY far more talented than any the Hawkeyes have had in the last 25 years. What a freaking joke.

Here are the rankings of the top 125 level recruits that made up the recruiting classes from Villanova's two title teams:
#56, #49, #57, #76, #79, #75, #81, #22, #20, #46, #97, #107, #122, #124,

Now lets look at the recruits in the top 125 Fran signed over that same time period:
#46, #76, #72, #118

It takes a special kind of stupid to argue a program filled with 14 elite four and five star recruits proved it's not about recruiting. You realize they can only play 5 of those 14 elite players at a time right? You have to be trolling here because otherwise I have serious doubts you could breathe unassisted.

Alot of wrong to address here so let me address each point individually

1st. There were 5 programs with 3 recruits in 247's top 25 this year, 7 programs in 2017's top 25, and 6 programs in 2016's top 25.

Nova hasn't had a top 25 class in 6 years. Here are their rankings:

2012 27th
2013 36th
2014 48th
2015 29th
2016 45th
2017 28th

So you're wrong that it's hard to land highly ranked classes with only 3 recruits

Secondly, the article I'm linking here shows elite recruits are the one is ranked 1-20. Theyve actuakly done the research and there's no difference between a 41st ranked recruit and the 91st ranked recruit. So you're operating under the assumption it matters that a guy is ranked 55th instead of 95th, which again, is completely wrong.

http://dribblehandoff.com/stories/recruit-and-develop-the-wright-way

Quote from the article:


Creating a culture for player development is only half of the equation. They needed to find players who desired to be coached and developed, even if that meant taking a player ranked 97th over a player ranked 33rd.

The actual rank within the top 100 rankings doesn’t matter too much anyway – the graphic below shows they’re a fairly inaccurate measure. Recruiting analysts are successful at identifying the top 20 players amongst the group, but struggle to differentiate the rest.
villanova-picture-2_orig.jpg



Players ranked in the top 20 definitely provide the highest average impact per season over the course of their career. Even the next group, 21-40, can be considered a distinct tier. However, there is no difference in average career value for players ranked 41-100.


So your quoting players ranks at 49 or 67 or whatever was a complete waste of time. Your calling Villanovas program "A mix of elite 5 and 4 star talent" is so incredibly inaccurate you probably didn't deserve a response from me, but I like educating people about this stuff with data.


I suggest you read that full article and educate yourself, rather than just form opinions off dumb assumptions.
 
The same son who avg 13.3 minutes per game in four games? Several of those minutes came in mop up duty. The son who attempted 3 total field goals in four games? The same son who started zero of the four games he played in? A recruit should be scared of that?

Fran has shown zero favoritism when it’s come to CM on the court. I’d think a few on campus visits and talking to the other players would tell you the rest.

I didn't say anything about CM being good or being shown favoritism. His mere presence on the roster is not good for recruiting PG.
 
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Villanova hasn't been top 10 because they have had extremely small classes over that period, with an average class size of 3 recruits. It's extremely difficult to make the top 10 with only three players signed because the rankings include both quantity and quality. Meanwhile when you actually look at their roster it's filled with elite recruits; multiple 5 star recruits and a bunch of extremely high 4 stars. On an average recruit basis, those rosters were EASILY far more talented than any the Hawkeyes have had in the last 25 years. What a freaking joke.

Here are the rankings of the top 125 level recruits that made up the recruiting classes from Villanova's two title teams:
#56, #49, #57, #76, #79, #75, #81, #22, #20, #46, #97, #107, #122, #124,

Now lets look at the recruits in the top 125 Fran signed over that same time period:
#46, #76, #72, #118

It takes a special kind of stupid to argue a program filled with 14 elite four and five star recruits proved it's not about recruiting. You realize they can only play 5 of those 14 elite players at a time right? You have to be trolling here because otherwise I have serious doubts you could breathe unassisted.

By the way

Here was Villanovas 8 man rotation(all 8 of the players who averaged double digit minutes per game) this year in order of minutes played











3 of the 8 were 3 star prospects
. None of the 4 stars even in the top 80

In the post of yours I just quoted, you said Villanova was elite 4 and 5 star recruits. That's wrong. Please, from here on out, get your facts straight.
 
He got the ship righted on the heels of the Lickdebacle era, but that’s where it’s stalled.

How much longer does he get to move us up from the perennial 8-12 finish in the conference and into a consistent 3-7 range for an extended period? To me, that is where Iowa should consistently finish.

Maybe I expect too much?

I get the frustration.....last year sucked really really bad.......that said, we don't know that it "stalled" there. Last year is quite possibly an anomaly.

Prior to last year...this is the five year trend/record-listed below. Last year was a disaster....colors everything in a bad light.

Season School Overall Big Ten Big Ten Standing Postseason

2012–13 Iowa 25–13 9–9 6th NIT Runner-Up
2013–14 Iowa 20–13 9–9 6th NCAA Play-In Round
2014–15 Iowa 22–12 12–6 3rd(T) NCAA 2nd Round
2015–16 Iowa 22–11 12–6 3rd(T) NCAA 2nd Round
2016–17 Iowa 19–15 10–8 5th(T) NIT 2nd Round
 
Fran has to land a serviceable PG in the 2019 class. Im not saying a top 100 type of player. HE needs a Bryce Cartwright type of guard. A guy who can pass the ball and attack the lane. He doesn't need to score 20+pts, he just has to be able to handle the ball and play defense.

If Fran thinks that Connor and JBO are our only options, then we will be in trouble moving forward. Fran has to get Iowa to some sort of post season this year. If we miss again, I hate to say that his seat should be HOT/boiling.

The thing is, he doesn't have to land one in this class......JB and Connor are both here. The 2020 class becomes a must. Tom K basically covered this in his most recent article.
 
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I think we probably all agree that this year is very important to the future of the Iowa BB program. Another bad year, and Fran is on the hot seat. A finish in the top 5/6 in the B1G and an invite to the dance, and most will consider last year an anomaly. Could go either way, but the long-term success would sure look a lot better with the addition of a top PG, preferably in the next class.
 
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Villanova has not had a top 10 (or top 20 iirc) class in years and has won 2 out of the past 3 titles. It's about development, not recruiting.

They developed a lot of 4 and 5 star guys o_O


Omari Spellman 5 star Academic RS Fr - 1st round Draft pick
Donte Divincenzo 3 star (sleeper) athletic freak RS Soph - 1st round Draft pick
Jalen Brunson 5 star - Senior 2nd round Draft Pick

Phil Booth 4 star
Mikal Bridges 4 star
 
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3 good point guards that have come from the state of Iowa. One we landed from Mason City and that was Dean Oliver.
The other 2, Marcus Paige & now D.J. Carton have played or are heading out of state. All 3 are Leftys...
 
Lol true, but that also hurts recruiting. "If you go play for Fran you can play 20-30 mins max. Come play 35+ a game for me"

Please, oh please, list all of the players for OSU, IU, and Michigan that played 35 min/ game last year. I’ll help you out as well.

OSU, IU, and Michigan player who avg 35+ mpg:

1) ....
 
This stands out the most for me in Mgk's post earlier in the thread:

Players ranked in the top 20 definitely provide the highest average impact per season over the course of their career. Even the next group, 21-40, can be considered a distinct tier. However, there is no difference in average career value for players ranked 41-100.

Admittedly, this supports a contention I've held for years. So thanks for that.
 
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By what standard? I completely disagree with this.

You're right to disagree.

Fran's recruiting has not been better than Dr. Tom's. I would say it's pretty similar. Dr. Tom signed 2 McD's AA's out of high school (Kenyon Murray and Chris Kingsbury) and had Sam Okey transfer in who was also a McD's AA. Dean Oliver, Ricky Davis, and Joey Range were also pretty highly rated. So, in actuality, you could probably make the case Dr. Tom's recruiting was better. Ironically, recruiting was the very thing many would say got him canned.

Fran's recruiting hasn't been awful. He just hasn't developed guards very well and hasn't figured out how to get the team to play defense. If he improves those two things, Iowa could have similar success as they did during the early Dr. Tom era.
 
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You're right to disagree.

Fran's recruiting has not been better than Dr. Tom's. I would say it's pretty similar. Dr. Tom signed 2 McD's AA's out of high school (Kenyon Murray and Chris Kingsbury) and had Sam Okey transfer in who was also a McD's AA. Dean Oliver, Ricky Davis, and Joey Range were also pretty highly rated. So, in actuality, you could probably make the case Dr. Tom's recruiting was better. Ironically, recruiting was the very thing many would say got him canned.

Fran's recruiting hasn't been awful. He just hasn't developed guards very well and hasn't figured out how to get the team to play defense. If he improves those two things, Iowa could have similar success as they did during the early Dr. Tom era.

I would agree the FM and Dr Tom have been pretty similar in recruiting. I’d say Dr Tom’s a little better overall. I would say that character issues have been nearly non existent with FM though. Two of the six guys you named for Dr Tom either had legal trouble or academic issues and that’s not including Ricky who wasn’t here long enough.

FM has brought in some pretty solid kids. The only issue I can recall would be Jok and his moped issues.
 
This stands out the most for me in Mgk's post earlier in the thread:

Players ranked in the top 20 definitely provide the highest average impact per season over the course of their career. Even the next group, 21-40, can be considered a distinct tier. However, there is no difference in average career value for players ranked 41-100.

Admittedly, this supports a contention I've held for years. So thanks for that.

that was a pretty small study involving only ESPN's rankings and they have the worst of the major ranking services. Composite rankings are much more predictive down through the top 100. DanL tried arguing this about 3 years ago and later admitted he was wrong.
 
If we had a different 4* pg not named McCaffery who missed the entire season last year people would be using it for an excuse for last year and not worried about it affecting pg recruiting whatsoever.

Instead we have an entire ****ing message board that is 100% convinced that our 4* pg is not good enough, is a horrible athlete, and not the answer for anything WITHOUT ACTUALLY SEEING HIM PLAY.

our fans are the worst.
 
In the post of yours I just quoted, you said Villanova was elite 4 and 5 star recruits. That's wrong. Please, from here on out, get your facts straight.

Hilarious!!! All those rankings I posted were COMPOSITE RANKINGS, not cherry picked rankings from one service which you follow up with twice, once with rivals only and once with espn only. This is what Kilroy/Herby/RedBull would always do over and over and over again, way to take his special torch and run with it. Nice job hilariously moving the goalposts since it's obvious to everyone you are wrong. Keep arguing that a program that had 14 elite COMPOSITE recruits didn't recruit well though....

These are COMPOSITE RANKINGS of the FOURTEEN RECRUITS, unlike you, they don't lie:
#56, #49, #57, #76, #79, #75, #81, #22, #20, #46, #97, #107, 122, #124


Nice job claiming composite four and five stars are really low ranked recruits who were "DEVELOPED" because one service has some of them as a 3 star, and another service has others of them as a 3 star. I'm sure the kids at your middle school were wowed by this analysis. Recruiting is the most important facet of a college basketball coaches job, especially at a school like Iowa, not sure why anyone in their right mind would continually argue this point that has been proved over and over again throughout history.
 
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They developed a lot of 4 and 5 star guys o_O


Omari Spellman 5 star Academic RS Fr - 1st round Draft pick
Donte Divincenzo 3 star (sleeper) athletic freak RS Soph - 1st round Draft pick
Jalen Brunson 5 star - Senior 2nd round Draft Pick

Phil Booth 4 star
Mikal Bridges 4 star

You don't get it! If Fran could develop an enormous pile of elite recruits that he can never seem to sign Iowa could win the national title. This PROVES college basketball is not about recruiting.

*Note: Donte Divincenzo was a actually a composite 4 star recruit and would've been one of the highest ranked Iowa recruits of the Fran era, it's not clear why an earlier poster would need to cherry pick rankings like this and claim he was a 3 star? Total mystery.....
 
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This stands out the most for me in Mgk's post earlier in the thread:

Players ranked in the top 20 definitely provide the highest average impact per season over the course of their career. Even the next group, 21-40, can be considered a distinct tier. However, there is no difference in average career value for players ranked 41-100.

Admittedly, this supports a contention I've held for years. So thanks for that.

It stood out because it's a complete joke and is terrible statistical analysis.
-6 of the last 8 Big Ten conference players of the year weren't in the top 40. -Only one was a five star in the top 20
-5 of those 6 were high ranked 4 star recruits between 40-125


RECRUIT - COMPOSITE RANK
Caleb Swanigan - 19
Keita Bates-Diop - 29
Jajuan Johnson - 43
Draymond Green - 49
Trey Burke - 93
Nick Stauskus - 110
Denzel Valentine - 112
Frank Kaminsky - 242

These are the type of guys who change teams and programs, as you can see a large number are high ranked 4 stars, these types of recruits matter enormously, it's not surprising when you look at Iowa's results they've had very few of this level of recruit.
 
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This stands out the most for me in Mgk's post earlier in the thread:

Players ranked in the top 20 definitely provide the highest average impact per season over the course of their career. Even the next group, 21-40, can be considered a distinct tier. However, there is no difference in average career value for players ranked 41-100.

Admittedly, this supports a contention I've held for years. So thanks for that.

Yes, they actually compiled data to back up that claim too. It's not just an opinion, it's a fact.

The player who lead Villanova in scoring vs Kansas in the Final Four game

An unranked 3 star transfer




The guy who was named MOP of the Final Four and lead them in points vs Michigan

A 3 star guy ranked 120th in his own class



So remember this next time another idiot comes along touting recruiting services and how "important recruiting is." Anyone who says that does not have the slightest clue how college basketball actually works.
 
Carton is going to Michigan. They just played for the national championship. They have played for 2 of them in the last 6 years. Iowa won 4 games in the Big Ten last year. Iowa hasn’t been to a sweet sixteen since the 80s. We have people in our arena that get upset about other people standing up to cheer during the games. What alternate universe do some of you live in? It was not automatic that we were going to land a 5 star PG just because he is from Iowa.
 
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To be fair....Iowa as a program has a history of wiffing on the big recruits; Tom Davis had some good teams, also missed great in-state recruits. Steve Alford was supposed to be our savior, also put together several good teams, missed some great in-state recruits. We missed out on Nick Collison and Kirk Hinrich...both first round draft picks out of Kansas. Don't forget about Raef, Kansas killed us in the late 90s early 2000s. I think Fran has gotten us closer to some of the big time high school recruits as any coach we've had at Iowa. The only way you get those big time recruits is with a big time, young, coach that everyone knows.

Nick Collison would have most likely been a Hawkeye had we not canned Davis. It was a lame duck year and he didn’t know who the coach was going to be.
 
Carton is going to Michigan. They just played for the national championship. They have played for 2 of them in the last 6 years. Iowa won 4 games in the Big Ten last year. Iowa hasn’t been to a sweet sixteen since the 80s. We have people in our arena that get upset about other people standing up to cheer during the games. What alternate universe do some of you live in? It was not automatic that we were going to land a 5 star PG just because he is from Iowa.

I agree. Other than Iowa’s last sweet sixteen was 1999. I hope you’re wrong about Carton going to Michigan too. I’d prefer he picks OSU. It doesn’t make it any less painful, but OSU just seems harder to hate (in basketball).

Unfortunately, Michigan sounds like he’s theirs to lose though.
 
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