ADVERTISEMENT

GDP -1.4 %

While GDP remains negative, the retraction was less in Q2 than Q1 which means production is getting a little better. Less than 1% essentially means we are treading water and not drowning. As I said in another post, I believe we meet technical definition of a recession, I believe it's mild and, barring more reckless government spending, we should be back to 0 or positive growth in Q3. I'm a little more optimistic than I was about equity markets, though there will actually be some competition for investment money from bond markets for the first time in a long time.

You have a pretty good instinct. I enjoy your posts and learn from your perspective.

‘Very, very true about the bond market. Fixed income is attractive for the first time in, well, forever. I guess a real brief time in early 2019, but… Anyway, another headwind for equities is the strong dollar.
 
While GDP remains negative, the retraction was less in Q2 than Q1 which means production is getting a little better. Less than 1% essentially means we are treading water and not drowning. As I said in another post, I believe we meet technical definition of a recession, I believe it's mild and, barring more reckless government spending, we should be back to 0 or positive growth in Q3. I'm a little more optimistic than I was about equity markets, though there will actually be some competition for investment money from bond markets for the first time in a long time.

You have a pretty good instinct. I enjoy your posts and learn from your perspective.
100% agree with all of that. That is how I see it as well.

That's what funny about recessions is we may not know for sure if something is a recession until it's over. I think its possible that this thing is already over but not certain. If we can get inflation under control, we might be able to see a nice little post pandemic bull run for a while.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Finance85
100% agree with all of that. That is how I see it as well.

That's what funny about recessions is we may not know for sure if something is a recession until it's over. I think its possible that this thing is already over but not certain. If we can get inflation under control, we might be able to see a nice little post pandemic bull run for a while.
That's what I'm hoping for. I really want to retire ASAP.
 
  • Like
Reactions: srams21
Up 260 at lunch 32790ish
I'm still hoping for the Dow to get above 34,000 and not have any wild drops for awhile.

The new ~ $400B spending bill will not help the inflation situation, despite the label on the bill and promises. Taking money from the private sector for public sector projects is rarely a good idea. There are some good things in the people, like Medicare negotiating drug prices, but a lot doesn't seem very well thought out, and there's a lot of corporate welfare.
 
ADVERTISEMENT