Guessing this is why they decided to slow play the articles of impeachment.....

[torbee]

Poll: Republican support for convicting Trump in Senate growing

About 20 percent of Republicans said they “strongly” or “somewhat” approved of a Senate conviction in the latest poll, conducted between Jan. 15-17.

www.politico.com

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

It's sad with poll numbers like that, it's almost certain the Republicans will re-capture the house. Because they are going to gerrymander the shit out of it.

 

[LuteHawk]

Nancy Pelosi has the power to deliver the article of impeachment
to the Senate whenever she wants to. However, behind the scenes
the Democrats are not agreed on the best date to begin the trial.

It is possible that President Joe Biden does not want the tremendous
distraction of Trump's impeachment during the opening days of his
administration. He wants his cabinet members confirmed as soon
as possible. He wants his new immigration policy voted on immediately.
No new President wants his agenda upstaged by his predecessor.

 

[BioHawk]

It's sad with poll numbers like that, it's almost certain the Republicans will re-capture the house. Because they are going to gerrymander the shit out of it.

It already has been gerrymandered to heavily favor Republicans and they still can't hold onto the House. But they get another shot at it I guess.

 

[BioHawk]

Nancy Pelosi has the power to deliver the article of impeachment
to the Senate whenever she wants to. However, behind the scenes
the Democrats are not agreed on the best date to begin the trial.

It is possible that President Joe Biden does not want the tremendous
distraction of Trump's impeachment during the opening days of his
administration. He wants his cabinet members confirmed as soon
as possible. He wants his new immigration policy voted on immediately.
No new President wants his agenda upstaged by his predecessor.

I understand Joe's thinking here, but he has to understand that Trump and Republicans have to be held accountable. Nothing else he wants to do will happen if that doesn't happen. But there is no reason they can't do a 50/50 split of impeachment hearings and nominee confirmations.

 

[sober_teacher]

It already has been gerrymandered to heavily favor Republicans and they still can't hold onto the House. But they get another shot at it I guess.

I'm very curious what the GOP does without Trump directly on the ballot. Also, how Biden deals with the vaccine rollout, which appears to have been botched so far, as well as sparking the post-pandemic economcy.

Everytime the incumbent party does well in the midterms, there have been special circumstances leading into it, so I won't be surprised if this happens again in '22. For sure, Hinson and MMM will be top targets by the Dems.

Holding onto and increasing their majority in the Senate will be just as crucial as well in two years, since the Senate map in '24 will be challenging.

I understand Joe's thinking here, but he has to understand that Trump and Republicans have to be held accountable. Nothing else he wants to do will happen if that doesn't happen. But there is no reason they can't do a 50/50 split of impeachment hearings and nominee confirmations.

 

[BioHawk]

I'm very curious what the GOP does without Trump directly on the ballot. Also, how Biden deals with the vaccine rollout, which appears to have been botched so far, as well as sparking the post-pandemic economcy.

Everytime the incumbent party does well in the midterms, there have been special circumstances leading into it, so I won't be surprised if this happens again in '22. For sure, Hinson and MMM will be top targets by the Dems.

Holding onto and increasing their majority in the Senate will be just as crucial as well in two years, since the Senate map in '24 will be challenging.

Well, the special circumstances will be that the maps are all freshly drawn and gerrymandered. Considering the Republicans dominate most of the state houses and congresses/general assemblies/whatever they call their legislative body, the gerrymandering will heavily favor the Republicans, but don't think for a second Democrats won't gerrymander the crap out of a state where they have the power to do so. This is one of the few examples where "Both sides are the same" actually holds up. It's also why a fix to gerrymandering needs to come from the Federal level so it affects everyone at the same time.

 

[Bonerfarts]

I felt like they delayed because they needed to hang something over his head if decided to do something crazy. Trump is less likely to pardon himself or his cronies, or start war, or whatever, if he knew he could be quickly convicted in the Senate.

 

[TJ8869]

In the 2018 US House elections, Democratic candidates nationwide got 53.4% of the popular vote and won 54.1% of the seats. Republican candidates nationwide got 44.8% of the popular vote and won 45.7% of the seats.

In the 2020 US House elections, Democratic candidates nationwide got 50.8% of the popular vote and won 51.0% of the seats. Republican candidates nationwide got 47.7% of the popular vote and won 48.7% of the seats.

For all the angst over gerrymandering, it kind of seems like party representation in the US House is right about where it ought to be.

 

[sober_teacher]

Well, the special circumstances will be that the maps are all freshly drawn and gerrymandered. Considering the Republicans dominate most of the state houses and congresses/general assemblies/whatever they call their legislative body, the gerrymandering will heavily favor the Republicans, but don't think for a second Democrats won't gerrymander the crap out of a state where they have the power to do so. This is one of the few examples where "Both sides are the same" actually holds up. It's also why a fix to gerrymandering needs to come from the Federal level so it affects everyone at the same time.

Sure, but they so badly gerrymandered many of the states in '10, I'm not entirely sure that there's that much more they can do. There is also a new Voting Rights bill that will be voted on this spring in Congress.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

It already has been gerrymandered to heavily favor Republicans and they still can't hold onto the House. But they get another shot at it I guess.

We'll be watching those asshats in NC. They've been slapped down by the courts so many times they should look like whipped puppies but they just keep coming back for more.

 

[BioHawk]

Sure, but they so badly gerrymandered many of the states in '10, I'm not entirely sure that there's that much more they can do. There is also a new Voting Rights bill that will be voted on this spring in Congress.

Never underestimate the GOP's ability to find a way to cheat (and then whine when those same strategies they fought to legalize are used against them).

 

[ping72]

When do the Georgia senators get seated?

 

[unsubstantiated]

I felt like they delayed because they needed to hang something over his head if decided to do something crazy. Trump is less likely to pardon himself or his cronies, or start war, or whatever, if he knew he could be quickly convicted in the Senate.

This. If the pardons go to himself, family, or rioters.... it will probably be an easy conviction.

 

[scruffyhawk]

I felt like they delayed because they needed to hang something over his head if decided to do something crazy. Trump is less likely to pardon himself or his cronies, or start war, or whatever, if he knew he could be quickly convicted in the Senate.

This
Mitch did not want to start the trial so Trump would not be able to do even more damage to the R brand on the way out. The pardon list would have a completely different feel if Trump had 'won' a Senate trial already.

 

[TJ8869]

We'll be watching those asshats in NC. They've been slapped down by the courts so many times they should look like whipped puppies but they just keep coming back for more.

At least you have some representation. By the end of the 117th Congress, Massachusetts Republicans will have gone 26 years without a single representative in the US House.

26 years. 13 legislative sessions. 125 seats. Every single one of them a Democrat.

 

[sober_teacher]

We'll be watching those asshats in NC. They've been slapped down by the courts so many times they should look like whipped puppies but they just keep coming back for more.

NC also has a Democratic Governor so their legislature doesn't have the rubber-stamp they did last time.

 

[tarheelbybirth]

At least you have some representation. By the end of the 117th Congress, Massachusetts Republicans will have gone 26 years without a single representative in the US House.

26 years. 13 legislative sessions. 125 seats. Every single one of them a Democrat.

Less than 11% of MA voters identify as Republicans. You'd likely have to gerrymander a district to give them representation. Regardless, ALL redistricting should be done by independent commissions. According to the Boston Globe, the 2010 Dem-led redistricting effort actually increased the number of feasibly Republican seats in the State House.

 

[TJ8869]

Less than 11% of MA voters identify as Republicans.

That's mostly because the vast majority of registered voters in MA don't specify a party affiliation. Less than 32% identify as Democrats, even though it's obviously a solid blue state.

I added up the results of the last 9 congressional election cycles and it was roughly 78% Democrat to 22% Republican, with 100% of the seats going to Democrats.

The amazing thing is that since Michael Dukakis left office in 1991, MA has had 5 different Republican governors and only one Democrat. Republican Charlie Baker was reelected in 2018 by a 34-point landslide and by the time his term ends in 2023, MA will have had a Republican governor for 24 of the past 32 years.

It sounds like MA has a lot of independent voters who are willing to vote Republican if presented with the right candidate. But for some reason Republicans are 0-for-their-last-125 in congressional candidates.

 

[torbee]

That's mostly because the vast majority of registered voters in MA don't specify a party affiliation. Less than 32% identify as Democrats, even though it's obviously a solid blue state.

I added up the results of the last 9 congressional election cycles and it was roughly 78% Democrat to 22% Republican, with 100% of the seats going to Democrats.

The amazing thing is that since Michael Dukakis left office in 1991, MA has had 5 different Republican governors and only one Democrat. Republican Charlie Baker was reelected in 2018 by a 34-point landslide and by the time his term ends in 2023, MA will have had a Republican governor for 24 of the past 32 years.

It sounds like MA has a lot of independent voters who are willing to vote Republican if presented with the right candidate. But for some reason Republicans are 0-for-their-last-125 in congressional candidates.

If Mass is gerrymandered to be blue leaning, it should be re-districted via nonpartisan means.

This should be done in EVERY STATE in the Union. Period.

 

[DFSNOLE]

Poll: Republican support for convicting Trump in Senate growing

About 20 percent of Republicans said they “strongly” or “somewhat” approved of a Senate conviction in the latest poll, conducted between Jan. 15-17.

www.politico.com

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

That's mostly because the vast majority of registered voters in MA don't specify a party affiliation. Less than 32% identify as Democrats, even though it's obviously a solid blue state.

I added up the results of the last 9 congressional election cycles and it was roughly 78% Democrat to 22% Republican, with 100% of the seats going to Democrats.

The amazing thing is that since Michael Dukakis left office in 1991, MA has had 5 different Republican governors and only one Democrat. Republican Charlie Baker was reelected in 2018 by a 34-point landslide and by the time his term ends in 2023, MA will have had a Republican governor for 24 of the past 32 years.

It sounds like MA has a lot of independent voters who are willing to vote Republican if presented with the right candidate. But for some reason Republicans are 0-for-their-last-125 in congressional candidates.

To be fair these Republicans are generally speaking extremely moderate Republicans who would never win the primaries in most other states.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

If Mass is gerrymandered to be blue leaning, it should be re-districted via nonpartisan means.

This should be done in EVERY STATE in the Union. Period.

One of the problems with gerrymandering is though is it's kind of like nukes. I'll disarm mine when you disarm yours.

If Mass gets rid of Gerrymandering but conservative states don't than conservatives automatically gain another advantage nationally and they will continue to maintain that advantage.

And if you stop the gerrymandering and they win control of the state legislature in Mass at the right time, they will just go back to gerrymandering and gerrymander the state for themselves.

I'm not sure how to make it constitutional but this sort of thing is a national problem that requires a national response so that all of the states are drawing lines on a level playing field.

 

[thewop]

My plan for the Senate where every state picks an R and a D and they have to have 55 votes to pass anything solves a whole hell of a lot.

Yeah it's unconstitutional so conservatives like myself will hate it but I don't think the founding fathers envisioned such a huge percentage of elected officials placing votes for re-election above what's best for the country long term.

 

[Rifler]

Term limits,... enough said.

 

[sober_teacher]

Term limits,... enough said.

Those are two separate issues. I don't necessarily disagree about term limits, but so long as states remain heavily gerrymandered, you're still voting in hard left and and hard right candidates who have zero self-interest in working with the other party on issues. Representatives like Gaetz or Boebert, or AOC on the Democratic side, are totally safe in the general - they're only at risk in the primary.

Draw the districts in a more balanced manner, and I think you'd see the term limit issue be mitigated to some degree.

 

[TJ8869]

To be fair these Republicans are generally speaking extremely moderate Republicans who would never win the primaries in most other states.

I’d like to see Charlie Baker run for President in 2024. He had incredible approval ratings, even among MA Democrats. He seems like someone who could bring the Republican party back toward the center and back toward some semblance of maturity. And he certainly has experience reaching across the aisle.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

I’d like to see Charlie Baker run for President in 2024. He had incredible approval ratings, even among MA Democrats. He seems like someone who could bring the Republican party back toward the center and back toward some semblance of maturity. And he certainly has experience reaching across the aisle.

I'd consider voting for Charlie Baker, I don't know much about him other than he's a extremely moderate Republican governor of MA. but I think you are foolish if you think he would have a legit shot at winning the primaries.

For that to happen the Republicans would have to go through a huge mea culpa not seen since post World War 2 Germany.

 

[joelbc1]

I’d like to see Charlie Baker run for President in 2024. He had incredible approval ratings, even among MA Democrats. He seems like someone who could bring the Republican party back toward the center and back toward some semblance of maturity. And he certainly has experience reaching across the aisle.

TJ...the GOP has no interest in “ the middle” right now. They’ll have to lose a couple of election cycles for that to happen. I don’t see that happening, either.

 

[hawkifann]

I understand Joe's thinking here, but he has to understand that Trump and Republicans have to be held accountable. Nothing else he wants to do will happen if that doesn't happen. But there is no reason they can't do a 50/50 split of impeachment hearings and nominee confirmations.

Agreed. The Democrats control the agenda. They should be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.

I do think it’s being held back until the new Senators from GA are sworn in, officially giving the Democrats the 50-50+VP advantage. From that point, I hope the charges are delivered and the trial begins. Accountability is critical here and the longer the delay, the more likely people aren’t going to want to go back and crawl around in the Trump sludge.

 

[114evans]

Term limits,... enough said.

We need a mechanism that allows every single vote to be a vote of conscience. I am for a longer single term, but open to any idea that helps people vote their conscience instead of partisanship. I'd like to see less executive control in that I don't want presidents to make laws from the oval office. I'd prefer the line item veto to be the big stick the president can swing. I would prefer to not have career politicians, and prefer single terms, but I am not certain that I am right either. Definitely upsides to experience. The RNC and the DNC control the voting at state and federal levels and whip the vote as they see fit. I am just tired of political theatre with little debate. Debate the damn issues openly and genuinely and the let people vote their conscience.

 

[sober_teacher]

We need a mechanism that allows every single vote to be a vote of conscience. I am for a longer single term, but open to any idea that helps people vote their conscience instead of partisanship. I'd like to see less executive control in that I don't want presidents to make laws from the oval office. I'd prefer the line item veto to be the big stick the president can swing. I would prefer to not have career politicians, and prefer single terms, but I am not certain that I am right either. Definitely upsides to experience. The RNC and the DNC control the voting at state and federal levels and whip the vote as they see fit. I am just tired of political theatre with little debate. Debate the damn issues openly and genuinely and the let people vote their conscience.

I don't think single terms are the answer either, you'd be surrendering ALOT of power to the career bureaucrats who work under either party, no matter who's in the majority at the time. There is something to be said for Pelosi or Mitch, who know all the ins and outs of legislative rules. Both, but particularly Mitch, have long taken advantage of those rules.

For my money, I'd like to 1) end gerrymandering as much as is possible; 2) require any legislation passed by one chamber of Congress to be put to a vote/consideration by the other chamber within 60 days. Neither the Speaker of the House nor the Senate Majority Leader should be able to effectively veto any bill they don't like or believe is bad for their caucus.

 

[TJ8869]

I'd consider voting for Charlie Baker, I don't know much about him other than he's a extremely moderate Republican governor of MA. but I think you are foolish if you think he would have a legit shot at winning the primaries.

For that to happen the Republicans would have to go through a huge mea culpa not seen since post World War 2 Germany.

TJ...the GOP has no interest in “ the middle” right now. They’ll have to lose a couple of election cycles for that to happen. I don’t see that happening, either.

You fellers are harshing my mellow.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

You fellers are harshing my mellow.

Sorry just injecting reality. . . I would be happy as hell to see a guy like Charlie Baker be the Republican nominee. Because that would mean that the Republicans have done a 180 and came around to some sense of sanity again.

Hey you know what would never happen but would be weird as hell.

Joe Machin/John Bel Edwards

vs

Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan

Of course if that was the case we would have Republicans and Democrats sitting around a camp fire singing Kumbaya.

 

[TJ8869]

Sorry just injecting reality. . . I would be happy as hell to see a guy like Charlie Baker be the Republican nominee. Because that would mean that the Republicans have done a 180 and came around to some sense of sanity again.

Hey you know what would never happen but would be weird as hell.

Joe Machin/John Bel Edwards

vs

Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan

Of course if that was the case we would have Republicans and Democrats sitting around a camp fire singing Kumbaya.

One thing that has been largely overlooked with everything that has happened over the past couple of weeks is that the Georgia runoff election results have made Joe Manchin one of the most powerful men on Capitol Hill.

Now that it's going to be 50-50, Democrats enjoy majority control by virtue of VP Harris being able to cast the deciding vote in the event of a tie. But in any issue that splits along party lines, there is no 50-50 tie unless Manchin and other moderate Democrats are happy and on board.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

One thing that has been largely overlooked with everything that has happened over the past couple of weeks is that the Georgia runoff election results have made Joe Manchin one of the most powerful men on Capitol Hill.

Now that it's going to be 50-50, Democrats enjoy majority control by virtue of VP Harris being able to cast the deciding vote in the event of a tie. But in any issue that splits along party lines, there is no 50-50 tie unless Manchin and other moderate Democrats are happy and on board.

Not unless you can replace them with a Romney, a Sasse or a Collins. But that is correct. A split like this makes the moderates very powerful in the senate.

Honestly if the senate could get like 6 of the moderates together in a room and hammer out compromise bills and if Biden looked at it and threw his weight behind some of them, they could get a lot done.

Of course the other possibility is that their compromises piss off the 94 other senators on both sides because neither one got everything they wanted.

 

[thewop]

Those are two separate issues. I don't necessarily disagree about term limits, but so long as states remain heavily gerrymandered, you're still voting in hard left and and hard right candidates who have zero self-interest in working with the other party on issues. Representatives like Gaetz or Boebert, or AOC on the Democratic side, are totally safe in the general - they're only at risk in the primary.

Draw the districts in a more balanced manner, and I think you'd see the term limit issue be mitigated to some degree.

You can only do so much with drawing though because our divide is urban/rural.

 

[sober_teacher]

You can only do so much with drawing though because our divide is urban/rural.

At the very least, we shouldn't have congressional districts that look like a 5 year old drew squiggly lines on a piece of paper.