HawkCentral Looks at Iowa's NCAA Tournament Chances

[Franisdaman]

IMO? I don't see how a 16-13 team makes it without winning the Big Ten Tournament.

Here is Chad Lestikow's column: http://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sp...owa-maryland-win-final-phase-season/98443698/

He concludes with this:

But let’s briefly touch on the three finishing scenarios.

• Win both games. That would push Iowa to 18-13 overall, 10-8 in the Big Ten (in the wildest scenario, that would be good enough to tie for third) and probably somewhere in the 70s in NCAA RPI. The Hawkeyes would then be approaching the weak NCAA Tournament bubble with a lot on the line in D.C. If the Hawkeyes could win two more games there, could the committee leave out a surging 20-14 Iowa team with wins against five top-50 RPI teams (Iowa State, Michigan, Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin)? If it’s that close, I do think Iowa could get some credit for the botched (by the refs) Minnesota finish.

• Split the games. At 9-9 in league play, Iowa could finish as high as the sixth seed but more realistically would be a No. 7 or No. 8. That would mean a Thursday matchup against a team like Illinois (which swept Iowa) or Nebraska (split), with perhaps an outside shot of facing Ohio State or Indiana.

• Lose both games. Entering Sunday, there were five teams below Iowa with six Big Ten wins – which leaves plenty of room to fall. The Hawkeyes would need help to avoid a Wednesday game in D.C. under this scenario, one they desperately want to avoid. We’ll know more after Thursday’s games.

Bottom line: There’s a renewed buzz around this Hawkeye team, thanks to a resounding performance in College Park.

Making the NCAA Tournament, senior Peter Jok said, is "our mindset right now. We’re trying to click at the right time, get these last wins and get a good seed at the Big Ten Tournament."


Thoughts?

 

[luvmyhawks]

I think if Iowa wins out then makes it to the btt championship, they are likely in. Lose on of the next 2, and they have to win the tourney to get in.

Both scenarios are very tough, but you just never know.

I am thinking the nit is looking more and more like a reality, which is a win for this season. They could make a deep run in the nit. Anything more is gravy.

 

[skydog0784]

I think if Iowa wins out then makes it to the btt championship, they are likely in. Lose on of the next 2, and they have to win the tourney to get in.

Both scenarios are very tough, but you just never know.

I am thinking the nit is looking more and more like a reality, which is a win for this season. They could make a deep run in the nit. Anything more is gravy.

^^^ This is the way I see it too ^^^

 

[StormHawk42]

Just took a look at Palm's bubble watch. The teams on the "work to do" list are downright embarrassing. Some have 2 top 100 wins. FWIW, Iowa has 7, including 4 top 50.

But everything is moot if they don't win the last two. It's only happened a handful of times (maybe only once) that a team with 14 losses got in as an at large.

 

[DanL53]

I'm still trying to figure out how a microphone could pick up guys screaming timeout but refs couldn't because it was too loud in the Barn?

I don't trust the league enough to know what chance at an unlikely outcome we really have. But we'll always have those games where we outplayed the other team so well nobody could do anything about it.

 

[ConvenientParking]

No chance apart from the conference tourney title. Even with a weak bubble. Our OOC was that atrocious and the Big Ten is weak this year. Last night's win maybe secured us a spot in the NIT barring a lot of mid-major conference tourney upsets. We'll probably be going on the road in round one.

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

UCLA two years ago and a recent Syracuse team, just to name two, got into the NCAA--top 64--with worse resumes than Iowa would have this year if the Hawkeyes win their final two regular-season games. Pick up at least two wins in the BTT, and Iowa should be a lock.

I also remember several seasons ago when Minnesota under Tubby Smith lost something like their last seven in a row, but had two or three big wins in December and made the NCAA field. Late that season Iowa beat the Gophers in Iowa City by something like 35 points.

To say the NCAA basketball committee process is flawed is to say the sky is blue.

Iowa isn't out of the NCAA field until they lose another game or the committee makes another mistake.

 

[K OKeefe]

Just took a look at Palm's bubble watch. The teams on the "work to do" list are downright embarrassing. Some have 2 top 100 wins. FWIW, Iowa has 7, including 4 top 50.

But everything is moot if they don't win the last two. It's only happened a handful of times (maybe only once) that a team with 14 losses got in as an at large.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/atlarge

Six 14 loss teams have received an invite to the Dance.

 

[hawksense]

No more losses. That's the only way we get in, guaranteed.

One more loss. The tourney champ game. We've been screwed so many times that we've become the easy last team out choice.

I'd be shocked in any scenario and would be quite pleased with an NIT bid.

Don't misinterpret this for me not wanting a Big Dance berth.

 

[soybean]

UCLA two years ago and a recent Syracuse team, just to name two, got into the NCAA--top 64--with worse resumes than Iowa would have this year if the Hawkeyes win their final two regular-season games. Pick up at least two wins in the BTT, and Iowa should be a lock.

I also remember several seasons ago when Minnesota under Tubby Smith lost something like their last seven in a row, but had two or three big wins in December and made the NCAA field. Late that season Iowa beat the Gophers in Iowa City by something like 35 points.

To say the NCAA basketball committee process is flawed is to say the sky is blue.

Iowa isn't out of the NCAA field until they lose another game or the committee makes another mistake.

That says it all IMHO.

 

[bagdropper]

Yeah...no more losses or NIT at best.

One game at a time, gentlemen...

 

[lovedwatchingLester]

Still too many variables to call it. Depends on who and when we win. Lose 2, win 4 or win 2 plus 3 , in !!! Truth though is we don't have a lot of opportunities, they have dwindled down to very few

 

[mtdew_fever]

If they dont have that mindset then you dont want the guys in your program.

IMO? I don't see how a 16-13 team makes it without winning the Big Ten Tournament.

Here is Chad Lestikow's column: http://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sp...owa-maryland-win-final-phase-season/98443698/

He concludes with this:

But let’s briefly touch on the three finishing scenarios.

• Win both games. That would push Iowa to 18-13 overall, 10-8 in the Big Ten (in the wildest scenario, that would be good enough to tie for third) and probably somewhere in the 70s in NCAA RPI. The Hawkeyes would then be approaching the weak NCAA Tournament bubble with a lot on the line in D.C. If the Hawkeyes could win two more games there, could the committee leave out a surging 20-14 Iowa team with wins against five top-50 RPI teams (Iowa State, Michigan, Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin)? If it’s that close, I do think Iowa could get some credit for the botched (by the refs) Minnesota finish.

• Split the games. At 9-9 in league play, Iowa could finish as high as the sixth seed but more realistically would be a No. 7 or No. 8. That would mean a Thursday matchup against a team like Illinois (which swept Iowa) or Nebraska (split), with perhaps an outside shot of facing Ohio State or Indiana.

• Lose both games. Entering Sunday, there were five teams below Iowa with six Big Ten wins – which leaves plenty of room to fall. The Hawkeyes would need help to avoid a Wednesday game in D.C. under this scenario, one they desperately want to avoid. We’ll know more after Thursday’s games.

Bottom line: There’s a renewed buzz around this Hawkeye team, thanks to a resounding performance in College Park.

Making the NCAA Tournament, senior Peter Jok said, is "our mindset right now. We’re trying to click at the right time, get these last wins and get a good seed at the Big Ten Tournament."


Thoughts?

 

[L. Wade Childress]

There is no way we are getting credit for the Minnesota blown call, but they might consider the ND and Omaha losses without Cook

 

[markfromj]

We've been screwed so many times that we've become the easy last team out choice.
.

Hawkeye fans' thirst for victim status knows no bounds.

 

[LuteHawk]

The important factors never change:

1. Strength of schedule
2. Wins against the top 50 teams
3. Conference won/lost record
4. 20 wins and less than 15 losses

 

[SotaHawk87]

The important factors never change:

1. Strength of schedule
2. Wins against the top 50 teams
3. Conference won/lost record
4. 20 wins and less than 15 losses

Actually less than 14 losses is the magic number. This year might change that.. I think there have only been 3-4 14 loss at large teams ever!

 

[Ihawkhoops]

I can't imagine a 19 win Iowa team is less appealing than some of the teams with ~ the same # of wins who haven't played anyone. IL is surging, so getting swept by them doesn't help, but isn't as bad as it looked two weeks ago.

 

[lovedwatchingLester]

If the Hawks feel they deserve to be in the tournament, need to prove it and win. I think they do and will

 

[Legend12]

Actually less than 14 losses is the magic number. This year might change that.. I think there have only been 3-4 14 loss at large teams ever!

Facepalm.jpeg

 

[Zildjian6868]

I think it will take winning out and making the finals of the Big Ten tournament. There is not a more dangerous team in the Big Ten than Iowa right now. We can look like the best in the conference and we can look like a middle of the pack kind of team. However, playing Williams, Bohannon, Ellingson, Jok, and Cook at the end of games sure seems unfair to the other team.

 

[HawksAndChiefs24]

This mindset is a recipe for disappointment, guys. It is important to be realistic. If we do make a BTT run then great but we all know better than to expect an NCAA tournament berth at this point.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with some tournament experience for this young team to build off of. The Big Ten is so wide open this year that winning the tournament is not out of the question, by any means, but with our young roster and lack of experience it is not fair to expect this of them. They have exceeded expectations all year, in my opinion. I would love to have the Minny and UNO games back because with those we are probably sitting pretty right now. The sad reality is we don't and it's important to realize that the fact we are even in the discussion with this many freshman getting significant PT is simply outstanding.

This team has developed so well and made adjustments where necessary. They deserve all the credit in the world for how they have played this year. The growing pains were expected and on paper should have been a lot worse. Fran deserves a lot of credit as well. I for one am extremely proud of these guys and can't wait to see how they close out the season. My only point is let's see if we can win these next couple games before we even THINK about the NCAA tourney as a possibility. It is fun to speculate but for me that normally ends in disappointment when you know deep down how long of a shot it is.

 

[Jumpshot00]

There is no way we are getting credit for the Minnesota blown call, but they might consider the ND and Omaha losses without Cook

Right. There is no way to say for certain that would have been a win even if we get the timeout or they call the MN guy out of bounce. Somebody likely has to sink 2 pressure FTs at least once, maybe more times as well as avoid turnovers. It seems crazy that the committee would look that deep into games and not just focus on results. However, that call still is ticking me off each time I hear about the Gophers winning streak.

 

[jasonrann]

My preseason prediction was 18 wins and NIT. Anything more than that is gravy. I’m just enjoying even being able to have these discussions with such a young team. The next few seasons are going to be awesome.

 

[IowaNiceHawk]

Just took a look at Palm's bubble watch. The teams on the "work to do" list are downright embarrassing. Some have 2 top 100 wins. FWIW, Iowa has 7, including 4 top 50.

But everything is moot if they don't win the last two. It's only happened a handful of times (maybe only once) that a team with 14 losses got in as an at large.

The Hawkeyes need to see MORE from Moss & Wagner. Especially at Wisconsin.........those guys can't just have 2 points. It's time for them to step-up and help the True Freshman, Cook, JordieBo and Cordell.

GO HAWKS

 

[DodgerHawki]

IMO? I don't see how a 16-13 team makes it without winning the Big Ten Tournament.

Here is Chad Lestikow's column: http://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sp...owa-maryland-win-final-phase-season/98443698/

He concludes with this:

But let’s briefly touch on the three finishing scenarios.

• Win both games. That would push Iowa to 18-13 overall, 10-8 in the Big Ten (in the wildest scenario, that would be good enough to tie for third) and probably somewhere in the 70s in NCAA RPI. The Hawkeyes would then be approaching the weak NCAA Tournament bubble with a lot on the line in D.C. If the Hawkeyes could win two more games there, could the committee leave out a surging 20-14 Iowa team with wins against five top-50 RPI teams (Iowa State, Michigan, Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin)? If it’s that close, I do think Iowa could get some credit for the botched (by the refs) Minnesota finish.

• Split the games. At 9-9 in league play, Iowa could finish as high as the sixth seed but more realistically would be a No. 7 or No. 8. That would mean a Thursday matchup against a team like Illinois (which swept Iowa) or Nebraska (split), with perhaps an outside shot of facing Ohio State or Indiana.

• Lose both games. Entering Sunday, there were five teams below Iowa with six Big Ten wins – which leaves plenty of room to fall. The Hawkeyes would need help to avoid a Wednesday game in D.C. under this scenario, one they desperately want to avoid. We’ll know more after Thursday’s games.

Bottom line: There’s a renewed buzz around this Hawkeye team, thanks to a resounding performance in College Park.

Making the NCAA Tournament, senior Peter Jok said, is "our mindset right now. We’re trying to click at the right time, get these last wins and get a good seed at the Big Ten Tournament."


Thoughts?

You are correct that a 16-13 team is not going to make it in. That's why none of the projections mention Iowa at all (and they shouldn't). The story in Hawk Central and by Jon Miller on the other site work off the assumption that Iowa wins @Wisconsin, home against Penn State and then a couple of games in the BTT. That would take a stretch of basketball that Iowa has not put together all season. It doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it's unlikely. It doesn't mean Lundardi and Palm and the others hate Iowa, it's just they look at the current snapshot of teams. Iowa has a lot of winning to do over the next two weeks to get on anyone's radar.

 

[DodgerHawki]

The Hawkeyes need to see MORE from Moss & Wagner. Especially at Wisconsin.........those guys can't just have 2 points. It's time for them to step-up and help the True Freshman, Cook, JordieBo and Cordell.

GO HAWKS

We don't need more from those 2 specifically, Iowa needs good effort from everyone. I would argue Wagner gave Iowa very important minutes against Maryland. His play at the start of the second half was huge in Iowa getting the lead. He had 4 offensive rebounds in 13 minutes, and rebounded over 40% of Iowa's misses while he was in the game. That is a huge number. Wagner is not going to ever be a big scorer against good opponents. As complement to Cook, he can be very useful. His ability to move and cover ground in the zone and to make hustle plays are what he is all about. Wagner will be big against Wisconsin trying to defend Happ and Hayes.

With Moss, Fran will start him each half and if he's making shots he'll play more. If not, then he won't. Just gravy if he does, Iowa has other options in Ellingson, Baer and Williams they can go to.

 

[mtdew_fever]

Here is a good article on the NCAA tourney RPI.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebas...rnament-rpi-numbers-to-know-through-the-years