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Here’s what Trump’s deportation plans could mean for Iowans

cigaretteman

HB King
May 29, 2001
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A mass removal of undocumented workers could lead to a tighter labor market in Iowa, higher wage rates and higher production costs, potentially leading to higher prices for goods and services, according to an Iowa State University economist.



Iowa could lose $151.6 million in taxes and tens of thousands of Iowa children could be separated from a parent if President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his promise of mass deportation.


Or the plan could be too unwieldy, logistically burdensome and costly to execute in full. Either way, undocumented immigrants in Iowa and their advocates say they are preparing for the worst.




Trump has vowed to conduct "the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.“ He has tapped immigration hard-liners to serve in his cabinet, including Tom Homan to serve as “border czar” and Republican South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to serve as his Homeland Security secretary.


"It's not going to be a massive sweep of neighborhoods," Homan said in an interview with Fox News. "It's not going to be massive raids. It's going to be a targeted enforcement operation."


Homan, though, warned that does not mean deportations of other undocumented migrants living in the country “is off the table.”


“If you're in a country illegally, you've got a problem,” he told Fox News.





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An estimated more than 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the United States, according to Pew Research. There are roughly 52,300 undocumented immigrants living in Iowa, or about 1.6 percent of the state’s population, according to estimates from the American Immigration Council, a pro-immigration advocacy group.


Vice-president-elect JD Vance has suggested 1 million people could be deported each year. Trump deported about 1.5 million people during his first term. Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration was on pace to match those numbers, in addition to millions turned away at the U.S.-Mexico border during the COVID-19 pandemic.


More than 3 million people were deported during Democratic former President Barack Obama’s eight years in office, more than any other U.S. president.


The Gazette spoke with an economist, Iowa business leader, immigration attorney and legal expert as well as with leaders and advocates in Iowa’s immigrant community to get a sense of the potential impact of Trump’s plans on Iowa families, communities and businesses.


What’s the reaction from Iowa immigrants to Trump’s plans?​


Tens of thousands of undocumented migrants are working across Iowa, contributing hundreds of millions of dollars to the Iowa economy.


A 2022 report by the American Immigration Council about immigrants living in Iowa estimates that undocumented residents made up about 2.4 percent of the state’s workforce and paid $354 million in taxes, with $151.6 million going to local and state governments. Those immigrants spent a total of $1.3 billion, the report found.


An estimated 26.2 percent of the state’s immigrant population are undocumented residents.


Rogelio Lagunas, a member of the Cedar Rapids Latino community, said many Iowa immigrants lack criminal records and know their rights and the process involved if detained, which reduces the fear of mass deportation.


“We know if people is not a criminal, if they got detained, they got to go to through the immigration process. They got to go to immigration court,” Lagunas said. “So we're not afraid. The community is not afraid about mass deportation,” he said of comments made by Trump’s team.


Advocates and legal experts, however, said there’s no guarantee that undocumented migrants without criminal convictions would not be ensnared in deportation efforts.


While Homan has said undocumented migrants deemed to be national security or public safety threats will be a priority, he has also suggested workplace raids that took place under former President W. Bush’s second term — like the 2008 raid that occurred at a kosher meatpacking plant in Postville — could return.


Lagunas stressed that while the community is not overly worried about mass deportations, they are concerned about the emboldening of racist behavior and increased bullying and discrimination against people of color.


Trump escalated his anti-immigration rhetoric on the campaign trail, saying during a rally in Iowa that undocumented immigrants were “poisoning the blood” of America, echoing the rhetoric of white supremacists.


The president-elect also has falsely claimed that immigrants are “coming from prisons, they’re coming from jail, they’re from mental institutions and insane asylums.”


Lagunas, who immigrated to Iowa, encouraged the community to assert their rights and speak out against racism.


Jairo Muñoz of Iowa City has been a U.S. citizen for 35 years. Originally from Colombia, he moved to the country 42 years ago to pursue a master's and PhD in engineering.


Like Lagunas, Muñoz said he worries about Trump stoking anti-immigrant sentiment and discrimination and declining support for diversity and inclusion efforts.


“It is the impact on the fiber of the community, of the people on how now it's OK to mistreat others,” Muñoz told The Gazette. “Now how diversity and inclusion is a sinful couple of words we cannot say. We cannot do it, we cannot act on it. That is becoming the new fiber of our society, and that is what really concerns me.”


He said he does not believe mass deportations are likely.


“Mass deportations will not be possible in the same way that it was not possible to build a wall and have Mexico pay for the wall,” he said. “… I don't think there will be mass deportations. I think (Trump) is doing what he always does. He says things to reach down to the emotions of people and to get other individuals in the community to follow his lead. And that is what I'm really concerned about.”
 

What impact could deportations have on Iowa’s economy?​


Chad Hart, an economist at Iowa State University, estimated that Iowa has between 35,000 and 40,000 undocumented workers, primarily in food processing and construction.


“If these workers are removed from the labor force, it's going to have basically an indirect impact across all of Iowa's industries,” Hart said. “Because right now, the Iowa economy is still a growing economy. We're adding jobs, but over the past few years, what we've also found is that we don't have the labor force to fill all the jobs.


“So pulling out undocumented workers is going to shrink that pile even more and make that labor market that much tighter, which is going to lead to higher wage rates, higher cost of production, and ultimately, probably higher prices for the goods and services we produce here.”


Seasonal industries like agriculture and construction rely heavily on migrant labor. And a labor shortage could add to existing financial challenges in an agricultural market that is facing a downturn, with the USDA forecasting a decrease in net farm income for 2024.


A 2012 USDA Economic Research Service study used a simulation analysis to estimate the impact a 5.8-million-person reduction in the number of unauthorized workers — agricultural and non-agricultural. Results of the study indicated that the negative economic effects generated by the departure of a significant portion of the labor force outweighed the positive effects on the wages of U.S.-born workers and other permanent residents employed in lower paying occupations.


Hart expects the same under President-elect Trump’s planned immigration crackdown. The cost of removing seasonal workers could lead to more losses than gains, as it raises production costs and challenges the ability of employers to compete, he said.


Hart noted that immigrant populations have filled lower-paying jobs in rural areas, contributing to business development. The potential loss of immigrant workers could slow the growth and revitalization of rural communities.


He pointed to Postville, where a kosher meatpacking plant became the site of the nation’s largest immigration raid at the time.


Almost 400 undocumented workers — roughly 20 percent of the town’s population — were arrested at the plant during the raid conducted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.


Hart said raids leave lasting scars on rural communities that “can run deep and last a long time.”


While the plant reopened under new ownership in 2009 and the town’s population has slowly climbed, the negative impacts of the raid can still be felt today, said Sonia Parras Konrad, an immigration attorney in Des Moines who represented more than 200 clients pro bono who were affected by the Postville raid.


Parras Konrad said there still are pending cases related to the raid 16 years later.


She said the raid destroyed the local economy, drove away businesses and disrupted families, including U.S. citizens and legal residents. The community disruption and social strain were significant, Parras Konrad said.


“It was a nightmare. I mean, we had children in the streets without being able to return home,” Parras Konrad said. “People gathered in the (local Catholic) church … sheltering people that were left vulnerable because of the raid, including U.S. citizens. But in reality, that created such a social and financial strain on the schools and support services and everybody else.”


Federal officials said they spent more than $5 million on the raid, according to the Associated Press.


Joe Murphy, president of the Iowa Business Council, said Iowa employers are concerned about the potential impact of mass deportations on Iowa's workforce, which has seen a decline in labor force participation and employment over the past year.


The nonprofit council advocates for 22 of Iowa’s largest businesses, including Alliant Energy, Casey’s, Corteva Agriscience, John Deere, Fareway, Hy-Vee, MercyOne, MidAmerican Energy, Pella, Principal, UnityPoint Health and Wellmark Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Iowa.


Murphy said Iowa Business Council members support comprehensive immigration reform to attract and retain workers.


“So workforce continues to be the top priority that the Iowa Business Council is focusing on, trying to make sure that we're a welcoming and attractive place for new Iowans to come in to our state, but also to retain Iowans as well in Iowa,” he told The Gazette. “Iowa has long been a beacon of hope and opportunity for immigrants across the world, and we think that that's a good thing. With respect to proposals on mass deportations, I think that that's something that we'll have to evaluate and see what the actual policy is.”
 
I want to help undocumented immigrants get legal status
rather than any mass deportation from the state of Iowa.
Those who have criminal records and are a threat to society
are a different problem. But that does not seem to be an
issue in Iowa at the present time. The 40,000 undocumented
workers in Iowa have jobs and contribute to their communities.
 
I want to help undocumented immigrants get legal status
rather than any mass deportation from the state of Iowa.
Those who have criminal records and are a threat to society
are a different problem. But that does not seem to be an
issue in Iowa at the present time. The 40,000 undocumented
workers in Iowa have jobs and contribute to their communities.

Preach it Lute.
 
Regarding the alleged 10's of thousands living in Iowa, 99.9% of them don't carry health insurance they just clog the ER's and really injured people must wait for care.

Our health as a State will be much better off without them clogging up the ER's.


In addition, 99.9% of them do not have drivers' licenses or vehicle insurance so the roads will be safer, and you won't be left holding the bill when one destroys your car and injures you in an accident.

I see only positives for Iowans and what's good for Iowa is good for the Nation.
 
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That I read something around 40% of ag labor is illegal immigrants. That will be a crazy shock to the system.

Or.....will it.... 😉

Tesla-Optimus-Gen-2.jpg
 
Regarding the alleged 10's of thousands living in Iowa, 99.9% of them don't carry health insurance they just clog the ER's and really injured people must wait for care.

Our health as a State will be much better off without them clogging up the ER's.


In addition, 99.9% of them do not have drivers' licenses or vehicle insurance so the roads will be safer, and you won't be left holding the bill when one destroys your car and injures you in an accident.

I see only positives for Iowans and what's good for Iowa is good for the Nation.

Amazing both of those statistics are at 99.9%
 
Regarding the alleged 10's of thousands living in Iowa, 99.9% of them don't carry health insurance they just clog the ER's and really injured people must wait for care.

Our health as a State will be much better off without them clogging up the ER's.


In addition, 99.9% of them do not have drivers' licenses or vehicle insurance so the roads will be safer, and you won't be left holding the bill when one destroys your car and injures you in an accident.

I see only positives for Iowans and what's good for Iowa is good for the Nation.
Where do you get your statistics, asshole! You just continually make shit up, stir up distrust and spread bullshit and MAGA-Trump lies. Your usefulness here has long expired. Get the to a nunnery!
 
Where do you get your statistics, asshole! You just continually make shit up, stir up distrust and spread bullshit and MAGA-Trump lies. Your usefulness here has long expired. Get the to a nunnery!
LOL - Grow a pair little man.

Visit any ER in Iowa and it sounds like a 3rd world country, nobody speaking English.

Regarding illegals driving around without insurance, ask any police officer.

You're obviously still butt hurt from the election results or from your boyfriend.
 
And most Americans listened to Trump that China was going to pay the tariffs.
Just like Mexico was going to pay for the wall.

Many still believe the latter, despite funds actually being taken from military housing/schools to pay for it.
LOL - China ends up paying for it when their economy crumbles due to not selling their shit products to Americans. Americans profit when we start making more goods here in the U.S. - We all win.
 
Something, something high prices are great if wages are higher...or at least that's what this board has been saying for the last few years.
 

What impact could deportations have on Iowa’s economy?​


Chad Hart, an economist at Iowa State University, estimated that Iowa has between 35,000 and 40,000 undocumented workers, primarily in food processing and construction.


“If these workers are removed from the labor force, it's going to have basically an indirect impact across all of Iowa's industries,” Hart said. “Because right now, the Iowa economy is still a growing economy. We're adding jobs, but over the past few years, what we've also found is that we don't have the labor force to fill all the jobs.


“So pulling out undocumented workers is going to shrink that pile even more and make that labor market that much tighter, which is going to lead to higher wage rates, higher cost of production, and ultimately, probably higher prices for the goods and services we produce here.”


Seasonal industries like agriculture and construction rely heavily on migrant labor. And a labor shortage could add to existing financial challenges in an agricultural market that is facing a downturn, with the USDA forecasting a decrease in net farm income for 2024.


A 2012 USDA Economic Research Service study used a simulation analysis to estimate the impact a 5.8-million-person reduction in the number of unauthorized workers — agricultural and non-agricultural. Results of the study indicated that the negative economic effects generated by the departure of a significant portion of the labor force outweighed the positive effects on the wages of U.S.-born workers and other permanent residents employed in lower paying occupations.


Hart expects the same under President-elect Trump’s planned immigration crackdown. The cost of removing seasonal workers could lead to more losses than gains, as it raises production costs and challenges the ability of employers to compete, he said.


Hart noted that immigrant populations have filled lower-paying jobs in rural areas, contributing to business development. The potential loss of immigrant workers could slow the growth and revitalization of rural communities.


He pointed to Postville, where a kosher meatpacking plant became the site of the nation’s largest immigration raid at the time.


Almost 400 undocumented workers — roughly 20 percent of the town’s population — were arrested at the plant during the raid conducted by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.


Hart said raids leave lasting scars on rural communities that “can run deep and last a long time.”


While the plant reopened under new ownership in 2009 and the town’s population has slowly climbed, the negative impacts of the raid can still be felt today, said Sonia Parras Konrad, an immigration attorney in Des Moines who represented more than 200 clients pro bono who were affected by the Postville raid.


Parras Konrad said there still are pending cases related to the raid 16 years later.


She said the raid destroyed the local economy, drove away businesses and disrupted families, including U.S. citizens and legal residents. The community disruption and social strain were significant, Parras Konrad said.


“It was a nightmare. I mean, we had children in the streets without being able to return home,” Parras Konrad said. “People gathered in the (local Catholic) church … sheltering people that were left vulnerable because of the raid, including U.S. citizens. But in reality, that created such a social and financial strain on the schools and support services and everybody else.”


Federal officials said they spent more than $5 million on the raid, according to the Associated Press.


Joe Murphy, president of the Iowa Business Council, said Iowa employers are concerned about the potential impact of mass deportations on Iowa's workforce, which has seen a decline in labor force participation and employment over the past year.


The nonprofit council advocates for 22 of Iowa’s largest businesses, including Alliant Energy, Casey’s, Corteva Agriscience, John Deere, Fareway, Hy-Vee, MercyOne, MidAmerican Energy, Pella, Principal, UnityPoint Health and Wellmark Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Iowa.


Murphy said Iowa Business Council members support comprehensive immigration reform to attract and retain workers.


“So workforce continues to be the top priority that the Iowa Business Council is focusing on, trying to make sure that we're a welcoming and attractive place for new Iowans to come in to our state, but also to retain Iowans as well in Iowa,” he told The Gazette. “Iowa has long been a beacon of hope and opportunity for immigrants across the world, and we think that that's a good thing. With respect to proposals on mass deportations, I think that that's something that we'll have to evaluate and see what the actual policy is.”
We won...you lost...cry harder!
 
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I want to help undocumented immigrants get legal status
rather than any mass deportation from the state of Iowa.
Those who have criminal records and are a threat to society
are a different problem. But that does not seem to be an
issue in Iowa at the present time. The 40,000 undocumented
workers in Iowa have jobs and contribute to their communities.
They all became criminals the instant they set foot on American soil, Honus.
 
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Reactions: 3ZSDAD
Billionaires love dumbshits like you.

Your leftists friends continously gaslighted people on this board regarding the crushing inflation numbers during the Biden Administration. They routinely responded "wages are up", and "401ks are up".

Your side doesn't care about the Biden inflation numbers and the fact that many families were crushed during his term.
All your side cares about is power.
 
Your leftists friends continously gaslighted people on this board regarding the crushing inflation numbers during the Biden Administration. They routinely responded "wages are up", and "401ks are up".

Your side doesn't care about the Biden inflation numbers and the fact that many families were crushed during his term.
All your side cares about is power.
So, you are saying mass deportation will bring inflation down?
Details matter, sir. Provide some.
 
Your leftists friends continously gaslighted people on this board regarding the crushing inflation numbers during the Biden Administration. They routinely responded "wages are up", and "401ks are up".

Your side doesn't care about the Biden inflation numbers and the fact that many families were crushed during his term.
All your side cares about is power.

Leftists were also bringing up collusion and greedflation.
 
Your leftists friends continously gaslighted people on this board regarding the crushing inflation numbers during the Biden Administration. They routinely responded "wages are up", and "401ks are up".

Your side doesn't care about the Biden inflation numbers and the fact that many families were crushed during his term.
All your side cares about is power.
“Crushing inflation numbers”? Gimme a break. And if you think you lived thru inflation under Biden, hold on to your pants when Trump starts tariff wars with steel and automobiles and he starts deporting “illegals”…shortages in construction and food stuffs will increase prices too…
Check your commodity prices and tell me why food and meats aren’t cheaper today than what they are?
 
A mass removal of undocumented workers could lead to a tighter labor market in Iowa, higher wage rates and higher production costs, potentially leading to higher prices for goods and services, according to an Iowa State University economist.



Iowa could lose $151.6 million in taxes and tens of thousands of Iowa children could be separated from a parent if President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his promise of mass deportation.


Or the plan could be too unwieldy, logistically burdensome and costly to execute in full. Either way, undocumented immigrants in Iowa and their advocates say they are preparing for the worst.




Trump has vowed to conduct "the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.“ He has tapped immigration hard-liners to serve in his cabinet, including Tom Homan to serve as “border czar” and Republican South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem to serve as his Homeland Security secretary.


"It's not going to be a massive sweep of neighborhoods," Homan said in an interview with Fox News. "It's not going to be massive raids. It's going to be a targeted enforcement operation."


Homan, though, warned that does not mean deportations of other undocumented migrants living in the country “is off the table.”


“If you're in a country illegally, you've got a problem,” he told Fox News.





ADVERTISING



An estimated more than 11 million undocumented immigrants live in the United States, according to Pew Research. There are roughly 52,300 undocumented immigrants living in Iowa, or about 1.6 percent of the state’s population, according to estimates from the American Immigration Council, a pro-immigration advocacy group.


Vice-president-elect JD Vance has suggested 1 million people could be deported each year. Trump deported about 1.5 million people during his first term. Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration was on pace to match those numbers, in addition to millions turned away at the U.S.-Mexico border during the COVID-19 pandemic.


More than 3 million people were deported during Democratic former President Barack Obama’s eight years in office, more than any other U.S. president.


The Gazette spoke with an economist, Iowa business leader, immigration attorney and legal expert as well as with leaders and advocates in Iowa’s immigrant community to get a sense of the potential impact of Trump’s plans on Iowa families, communities and businesses.


What’s the reaction from Iowa immigrants to Trump’s plans?​


Tens of thousands of undocumented migrants are working across Iowa, contributing hundreds of millions of dollars to the Iowa economy.


A 2022 report by the American Immigration Council about immigrants living in Iowa estimates that undocumented residents made up about 2.4 percent of the state’s workforce and paid $354 million in taxes, with $151.6 million going to local and state governments. Those immigrants spent a total of $1.3 billion, the report found.


An estimated 26.2 percent of the state’s immigrant population are undocumented residents.


Rogelio Lagunas, a member of the Cedar Rapids Latino community, said many Iowa immigrants lack criminal records and know their rights and the process involved if detained, which reduces the fear of mass deportation.


“We know if people is not a criminal, if they got detained, they got to go to through the immigration process. They got to go to immigration court,” Lagunas said. “So we're not afraid. The community is not afraid about mass deportation,” he said of comments made by Trump’s team.


Advocates and legal experts, however, said there’s no guarantee that undocumented migrants without criminal convictions would not be ensnared in deportation efforts.


While Homan has said undocumented migrants deemed to be national security or public safety threats will be a priority, he has also suggested workplace raids that took place under former President W. Bush’s second term — like the 2008 raid that occurred at a kosher meatpacking plant in Postville — could return.


Lagunas stressed that while the community is not overly worried about mass deportations, they are concerned about the emboldening of racist behavior and increased bullying and discrimination against people of color.


Trump escalated his anti-immigration rhetoric on the campaign trail, saying during a rally in Iowa that undocumented immigrants were “poisoning the blood” of America, echoing the rhetoric of white supremacists.


The president-elect also has falsely claimed that immigrants are “coming from prisons, they’re coming from jail, they’re from mental institutions and insane asylums.”


Lagunas, who immigrated to Iowa, encouraged the community to assert their rights and speak out against racism.


Jairo Muñoz of Iowa City has been a U.S. citizen for 35 years. Originally from Colombia, he moved to the country 42 years ago to pursue a master's and PhD in engineering.


Like Lagunas, Muñoz said he worries about Trump stoking anti-immigrant sentiment and discrimination and declining support for diversity and inclusion efforts.


“It is the impact on the fiber of the community, of the people on how now it's OK to mistreat others,” Muñoz told The Gazette. “Now how diversity and inclusion is a sinful couple of words we cannot say. We cannot do it, we cannot act on it. That is becoming the new fiber of our society, and that is what really concerns me.”


He said he does not believe mass deportations are likely.


“Mass deportations will not be possible in the same way that it was not possible to build a wall and have Mexico pay for the wall,” he said. “… I don't think there will be mass deportations. I think (Trump) is doing what he always does. He says things to reach down to the emotions of people and to get other individuals in the community to follow his lead. And that is what I'm really concerned about.”
Dumb And Dumber GIF
 
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