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Hidden Metrics - Iowa/Michigan

GT Hawkaholic

HB All-American
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Sep 20, 2009
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I am a big believer that match-ups so often determine an ability for one team to compete against the next. Underneath all of the seemingly "stacked" exterior statistics and numbers that give Iowa no chance, you will find a much more interesting story that gives me a significant amount of hope that Iowa is going to give Michigan all they want and more.

Iowa is allowing 2.97 yards per carry as opposed to OSU's 3.52. While it may seem insignificant to most, a 20% difference against a team that is so run oriented can actually equate to much more than a 20% reduction in output.

Michigan exploited the strength of their running game vs the weakness of OSU's run defense and it allowed them to constantly stay ahead of the chains offensively. They were constantly in 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 5 type situations. But how will it translate against Iowa?

For example, if the stats hold up, Michigan will often find itself in 2nd and 7 or 2nd and 8 situations. If you run again for a similar output you are in 3rd and medium and likely facing an obvious passing situation. They are a team that throws for under 200 YPG so they've not shown to air the ball out much.

1-2 yard differences on first down can be the difference between an open playbook and being "behind the chains" as we so often like to talk about with Iowa. When we do make teams one dimensional passing, you have seen what happens.

On the offensive side, Goodson has averaged 5.48 YPC and 122 YPG over the past four games. The straight ahead run game has been very, very good. The major point of emphasis will be staying true to this and being able to grind out yards on every run and neutralize the pass rushers. As the pass rushers start to get anxious, you can exploit it with screens and PA.

If we come out with a strong defensive start (unlike the past 3 weeks), I fully expect that we will be in it until the end or win the game.
 
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