High expectations

[hansenhawk]

Does anyone have some numbers to show how Iowa ends after being in the top 20 preseason.

It seems to me, that Iowa tends to overachieve when little is expected, but unfortunately under achieve when the expectations are higher.

anyone have anything to show this is or is not the case?

Thanks

 

[PHXIowaClub]

I found the following website that takes each teams preseason ranking and post season ranking to determine a team's overrated and underrated level:

http://preseason.stassen.com/over-under/

 

[Capital1Hawk]

Does anyone have some numbers to show how Iowa ends after being in the top 20 preseason.

It seems to me, that Iowa tends to overachieve when little is expected, but unfortunately under achieve when the expectations are higher.

anyone have anything to show this is or is not the case?

Thanks

Different team means different results. Two great leaders on O and D. Reason to be optimistic.

 

[PHXIowaClub]

I found the following website that takes each teams preseason ranking and post season ranking to determine a team's overrated and underrated level:

http://preseason.stassen.com/over-under/

2015: Unranked preseason poll | #9 in final poll
Delta score of +17 (2nd most underrated team in nation)

2010: #11 preseason poll | Unranked final poll
Delta score of -15 (3rd most overrated team in the nation).

2009: #19.5 preseason polls | #7 final poll
Delta score of +12.5 (2nd most underrated team in the nation).

2008: Unranked preseason poll | #20 in final poll
Delta score of +6 (11th most underrated team in the nation).

2006: #15 preseason poll | Unranked final poll
Delta score of -11 (4th most overrated team in the nation).

2005: #12 preseason poll | Unranked final poll
Delta score of -14 (4th most overrated team in the nation).

2004: #19 preseason poll | #8 final poll
Delta score of +11 (5th most underrated team in the nation).

2003: Unranked preseason poll | #8 final poll
Delta score of +18 (most underrated team in the nation).

2002: Unranked preseason poll | #8 final poll
Delta score of +18 (2nd most underrated team in the nation).

2004 and 2009 were the only 2 years in the Ferentz era where Iowa was ranked in both the Preseason Poll and the Final AP Poll.

4 years where they started unranked and ended ranked (3 of the 4 they ended up in top 10)

3 seasons where they started ranked and ended unranked.

9 seasons where they started and ended unranked.

 

[WORTHYWISH]

Who knows what's going to happen this year. One thing I am very confident on is that we will NOT get blown out this year, even if we face Stanford again. All our losses will be close ones.

 

[Scott559]

Maybe I'm just being overly optimistic, I just feel like there has been a positive change in culture/attitude within the program and I really believe overall the program is trending up, So I don't place much value in past years results vs expectations. I like the vibe coming from the football program.

 

[BioHawk]

The thing is, usually when Iowa has really good seasons it's because they had a very experience heavy team the year before. However, they can't readily replace players like other teams can so there is a drop off that gets overlooked or underestimated in preseason reviews.

2010 might be the exception to that but they had huge losses at linebacker after 2009 and for Iowa's defense to work the linebackers basically need to be the best players on the field. Every year Iowa's defense underperforms they are inexperienced at that position (at least it seems that way). I still have nightmares of watching Terelle Pryor run past James Morris like he was standing still on 4th and 10. James Morris buries Terelle Pryor on that play if 2014 James Morris is there and not 2010 James Morris.

This year, the linebacking corp is back so that weakness isn't as pronounced. In fact, I'm not sure there are places where they are significantly weaker because they got hit with injuries so bad last year a lot of players got playing time. I'm still being overly cautious right now though because I've been down this road before and they still need to have the breaks fall their way. However, if there were any season where Iowa doesn't experience the year 2 drop off this one would be it.

 

[SWIowahawks]

Who knows what's going to happen this year. One thing I am very confident on is that we will NOT get blown out this year, even if we face Stanford again. All our losses will be close ones.

What losses?

 

[PHXIowaClub]

I agree this year's team doesn't see a significant droopy at any position, outside possibly kicker (who knows).

Canzeri was fantastic as a senior but Iowa is in great shape at RB
Smith was terrific but Iowa has had big years without great WRs.

I would add 2005 to 2010 but our issue in 2005 was replacing the entire DLine. That killed the defense. I would say Iowa's key to a great defense is returning talent and experience at all 3 levels of the defense.

 

[Suburbian Hawk]

I still have nightmares of watching Terelle Pryor run past James Morris like he was standing still on 4th and 10. James Morris buries Terelle Pryor on that play if 2014 James Morris is there and not 2010 James Morris.

Well your dreams are dreaming of the wrong player, because Morris was not even in the camera on that play. I just watched it...

The result of that play was 100% due to man coverage with no QB spy.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

2015: Unranked preseason poll | #9 in final poll
Delta score of +17 (2nd most underrated team in nation)

2010: #11 preseason poll | Unranked final poll
Delta score of -15 (3rd most overrated team in the nation).

2009: #19.5 preseason polls | #7 final poll
Delta score of +12.5 (2nd most underrated team in the nation).

2008: Unranked preseason poll | #20 in final poll
Delta score of +6 (11th most underrated team in the nation).

2006: #15 preseason poll | Unranked final poll
Delta score of -11 (4th most overrated team in the nation).

2005: #12 preseason poll | Unranked final poll
Delta score of -14 (4th most overrated team in the nation).

2004: #19 preseason poll | #8 final poll
Delta score of +11 (5th most underrated team in the nation).

2003: Unranked preseason poll | #8 final poll
Delta score of +18 (most underrated team in the nation).

2002: Unranked preseason poll | #8 final poll
Delta score of +18 (2nd most underrated team in the nation).

2004 and 2009 were the only 2 years in the Ferentz era where Iowa was ranked in both the Preseason Poll and the Final AP Poll.

4 years where they started unranked and ended ranked (3 of the 4 they ended up in top 10)

3 seasons where they started ranked and ended unranked.

9 seasons where they started and ended unranked.

They don't underachieve or overachieve. (ok that might not be 100% true)
But they do show how absolutely worthless the preseason polls are.....

I don't expect a 12-0 season but I do expect a great year!

 

[BioHawk]

Well your dreams are dreaming of the wrong player, because Morris was not even in the camera on that play. I just watched it...

The result of that play was 100% due to man coverage with no QB spy.

Hmmm...looking at the play I guess you're right. I was in the stands that night so I think 96 was who I was thinking of and that's not a play I go back and rewatch very often

 

[Suburbian Hawk]

Hmmm...looking at the play I guess you're right. I was in the stands that night so I think 96 was who I was thinking of and that's not a play I go back and rewatch very often

Me too, that's was painful to watch live... That whole drive was painful.

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

I agree this year's team doesn't see a significant droopy at any position, outside possibly kicker (who knows).

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

2015: Unranked preseason poll | #9 in final poll
Delta score of +17 (2nd most underrated team in nation)

2010: #11 preseason poll | Unranked final poll
Delta score of -15 (3rd most overrated team in the nation).

2009: #19.5 preseason polls | #7 final poll
Delta score of +12.5 (2nd most underrated team in the nation).

2008: Unranked preseason poll | #20 in final poll
Delta score of +6 (11th most underrated team in the nation).

2006: #15 preseason poll | Unranked final poll
Delta score of -11 (4th most overrated team in the nation).

2005: #12 preseason poll | Unranked final poll
Delta score of -14 (4th most overrated team in the nation).

2004: #19 preseason poll | #8 final poll
Delta score of +11 (5th most underrated team in the nation).

2003: Unranked preseason poll | #8 final poll
Delta score of +18 (most underrated team in the nation).

2002: Unranked preseason poll | #8 final poll
Delta score of +18 (2nd most underrated team in the nation).

2004 and 2009 were the only 2 years in the Ferentz era where Iowa was ranked in both the Preseason Poll and the Final AP Poll.

4 years where they started unranked and ended ranked (3 of the 4 they ended up in top 10)

3 seasons where they started ranked and ended unranked.

9 seasons where they started and ended unranked.

I take solace in the fact that during the Ferentz era when the Hawks were ranked between 16-20 preseason their average postseason ranking is 7.5 which ain't too shabby.

 

[hansenhawk]

Wow, thanks for all the responses and info on this btw, very much appreciated! Looking forward to the season!

 

[Suterman]

I guess the beauty of college football is that you just never know. We could overachieve and win the B1G and make the play-offs, or we could tank and finish 7-6. I think this team will do very well but until the hay is in the barn, you never know.

 

[Big Hawk D-Port]

Me too, that's was painful to watch live... That whole drive was painful.

Clayborn was just supposed to contain him in the pocket. He went for the sack and Pryor got outside...game over.

 

[the Howler]

Different team means different results. Two great leaders on O and D. Reason to be optimistic.

You mean like Stanzi and Clayborn? At least there's no brutal OOC game like Tucson this year.

 

[Pepperman]

You mean like Stanzi and Clayborn? At least there's no brutal OOC game like Tucson this year.

Welcome back, the Howler.