ADVERTISEMENT

Holy Crap... Biden/Trump tied in Iowa

Interesting. Makes me wonder how Iowans will react to having a SCOTUS appointee jammed through before the election.

I honestly don’t know.
It won't play well as the Lincoln Project and other news organizations continually play those old Grassley/Graham tapes and their previous comments.

Along with the weak response to the virus, this is setting up for a Blue tsunami.

I'm guessing it will also be a key point at next weeks debate.
 
  • Like
Reactions: seam and Torg
Interesting. Makes me wonder how Iowans will react to having a SCOTUS appointee jammed through before the election.

I honestly don’t know.
I fully expect Iowans to bite on Chuck's nonsense. I don't expect it will change anyone's mind on Trump/Biden. It should drive turnout for Joni's seat.
 
The split with men for Trump and women for Biden in Iowa amazes the DMR pollster.
I think that shows men are less than willing to admit they made a mistake in 2016. Women seem to view things more objectively.

Just called the County Auditor to see when early "in person" voting begins. She told me October 8th and then added... "prepare to wait because we're really getting lots of calls".

Heavy turnout is usually bad for incumbents.
 
Math is fine but you aren't factoring in the nuance of the demographics that are being polled. I guess if you want to believe that number, feel free to.
Keep telling yourself that if it helps you feel better.

Those coattails just turned into anchors for the violin player, 3M, and David Young. Joni has six years of doing nothing to defend... so she was going down on her own merits.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: seam and HawkNester
DM Register/Selzer poll is supposed to be A+ Gold rating so it gives me hope.

If undecideds break for Biden (like they usually do against an incumbent) then maybe there's real hope for Biden to take Iowa. Still, if it happens, it will probably mean at a national level that Biden has comfortably won the election.

Coattails might bring Greenfield in though.
 
Math is fine but you aren't factoring in the nuance of the demographics that are being polled. I guess if you want to believe that number, feel free to.
Pollsters have adapted to what were perceived to be the mistakes made in 2016 (although aggregate national polling wasn't off by very much)--but the main problem for Dems in 2016 were voters who stayed home who had voted for Obama in 08 and 12. If those voters show up in similar numbers in 20 as they did for Obama than Trump is complete toast.
 
The split with men for Trump and women for Biden in Iowa amazes the DMR pollster.
Women have better asshole detectors, or at least are less willing to tolerate assholish behavior.

Thus, this doesn’t surprise me at all.

My main gripe with Trump has never been his politics (whatever they are) or policy (which he seems to make up on a whim and has no consistency on). Rather, I cannot stand having a gigantic, raging, irredeemable ASSHOLE as POTUS. It’s gross.

Trump supporters actually LIKE that he’s an asshole. Hence, why they are deplorable.
 
Pollsters have adapted to what were perceived to be the mistakes made in 2016 (although aggregate national polling wasn't off by very much)--but the main problem for Dems in 2016 were voters who stayed home who had voted for Obama in 08 and 12. If those voters show up in similar numbers in 20 as they did for Obama than Trump is complete toast.
Undervotes and a 3rd (& 4th & 5th) party candidate were also issues in 2016. I have a hard time thinking this will be a factor in 2020.

Undervotes (someone who votes, but leaves the presidential vote blank) skyrocketed in 2016. Michigan, a state that Trump won by less than 11,000 votes in 2016, had 75,000 undervotes along with 250,000 votes for other candidates. Iowa had 110,000 votes for other candidates in 2016 plus another 15,000 who left it blank.
 
It's sad that it would be considered an upset for Biden to win Iowa. What happened to Iowa? Brain drain that significant?

For most of my life (37 years), Iowa has been lean-GOP, but moderate enough that flipping the state wasn't ever a big surprise for Democrats. Iowans did not like Hillary at all, so while I was surprised at the margin of victory, I wasn't surprised Trump won in Iowa 4 years ago.
 
  • Like
Reactions: torbee
Women have better asshole detectors, or at least are less willing to tolerate assholish behavior.

Thus, this doesn’t surprise me at all.

My main gripe with Trump has never been his politics (whatever they are) or policy (which he seems to make up on a whim and has no consistency on). Rather, I cannot stand having a gigantic, raging, irredeemable ASSHOLE as POTUS. It’s gross.

Trump supporters actually LIKE that he’s an asshole. Hence, why they are deplorable.
I feel like this is a setup. 😏
 
  • Like
Reactions: ping72
Trump won Iowa by +8 in 2016. Biden is also doing major ad buys here. Throw in a Supreme Court confirmation that will be on net a drag for the Rs, and this state could flip.
And he didn’t lead by nearly that much in polling before the election in 2016. Heck, he and Hillary polled a tie in late Sept.
 
ADVERTISEMENT