Hoops Fearless Forecast
The Hawkeyes look to bounce back in 2018. Can they get to the NCAA Tournament?
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport.com
@hawkeyereport
The start of the 2018-19 Iowa basketball season if officially upon us.
This season there will be plenty of offensive firepower on the Iowa roster. The Hawkeyes return their top nine scorers from last year’s squad and they have also added four star wing Joe Wieskamp to the mix.
Points will not be a problem.
The deciding factor as to whether Iowa rebounds from a 14-19 (4-14) season last year will be defense.
There’s really no use running down the poor defensive numbers again. We all know them and if they are the same this season, then Iowa’s record will probably be where it was last season.
If they become just an average defensive team in 2018-19, then the Hawkeyes should be in post season play.
It’s really that simple.
What I have been interested in is the folks who study college basketball teams from an analytics perspective seems to think Iowa’s going to be better this year.
TeamRankings.com, which always does a nice job of projecting college basketball teams has Iowa just outside the NCAA Tournament. They have Iowa with a 37% chance of making the Big Dance this year and finishing with a 19-11 overall record and 11-9 in Big Ten play.
KenPom.com, which is pretty much a gold standard when it comes to the deep dives into statistical analysis of college hoops, also has Iowa with a 19-11 record and 10-10 in conference play. KenPom.com has Iowa as the 35th best team in his overall rankings and my best guess is that would make them an NCAA Tournament worthy team.
You may be asking, well, Iowa is supposed to play 31 games and that’s only 30 projections. These sites can’t project the wins/losses if they don’t know the opponent, so they can’t project a game against either Syracuse or UCONN in the 2K event in New York City.
We know what the smart guys think of Iowa, but what about the beat writer who tends to have more misses then hits when it comes to projecting wins and losses?
Well, if you keep reading you will get my thoughts.
First, the non-conference slate of games. Rather than predict every game of the non-conference schedule, I’ll give a general overview of six of the games and dive a little deeper into the other five.
Also, the Big Ten is once again playing a pair of games earlier in the season, in late November and early December, so we will discuss those contests in the conference portion.
There are six games that are automatic wins. These are the “buy games” or part of the 2K event that Iowa is part of at Madison Square Garden. Those games are UMKC, UW-Green Bay, Alabama State, Western Carolina, Savannah State, and Bryant.
The other five games are: Oregon, Syracuse/UCONN, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, and UNI.
Iowa should beat Pittsburgh, who is rebuilding, and UNI, who will probably give the Hawkeyes a run for their money. The other three games, Iowa will need to probably go 2-1 in. The Iowa State game is in Iowa City, so the Hawkeyes have a good shot at winning that contest. Oregon is the highest ranked team of the bunch and will be the most likely loss. If Iowa plays UCONN, who I suspect will lose to Syracuse, they should be able to win that contest. Basically 2-1 or 1-2 is the most likely outcome. If it’s 0-3, Iowa is probably in trouble. If it’s 3-0, this season is going to be off to a roaring start.
So, let’s go conservative and say Iowa goes 9-2 in the non-conference.
On to the conference games, which begin in late November.
NOV. 30th – WISCONSIN – it was a disappointing year for the Badgers, who missed the NCAA Tournament and had their string of top four finishes in conference play broken. This Wisconsin team will be better because they are healthy and Ethan Happ is looking to go out with a strong finish to his career. Fran has had good success against the Badgers and Iowa gets this one. W
DEC 3rd - @MICHIGAN STATE – The Spartans are the consensus pick to win the Big Ten this year. Shocking. I think that’s probably the case most years. There isn’t as much star power with this MSU team. But, they do have good depth and talent, as they do most years under Tom Izzo. Tough place to win for Iowa over the years. L
JAN 3rd - @PURDUE – It seems like Iowa always ends up playing at Purdue in early January. The Boilers are a really interesting team this season. They have the best player in the conference in Carson Edwards, who could go all Russell Westbrook this year. But, they lost four starters. Not sure what to think of them this year. L
JAN 6th – NEBRASKA – The Huskers went 22-11 last year and didn’t go dancing, so Tim Miles sits on the hot seat again. They have four really good players in Watson, Roby, Palmer, and Copeland, but their depth is questionable heading into the season. W
JAN 9th - @NORTHWESTERN – After making the NCAA Tournament the year before, the Cats came back to earth last year, finishing 15-17. The bad part for Northwestern is they also lost a lot of talent off last year’s team. They will build around Pardon and Law this season, but not enough pieces. W
JAN 12th – OHIO STATE – The Buckeyes were the surprise of the conference last year under a first year coach in Chris Holtmann. They lost Bates-Diop to the NBA and Tate is also gone. They will build around Kaleb Wesson and guard C.J. Jackson this year. They won’t be as good as last year and this one is in Iowa City. W
JAN 16th - @PENN STATE – Last year’s trip to Happy Valley might have been rock bottom for Iowa’s defensive struggles. No more Shep Garner and Tony Carr at Penn State means their backcourt takes a hit from a shooting perspective. This is one of those games that Iowa needs to win if they are going to get to the NCAA Tournament. L
JAN 20th – ILLINOIS – I know Illini fans are pretty excited about the potential of this team, but they have real issues up front. I like the young talent at guard in Frazier and Dosunmu and think they will be tough to handle. But, the road won’t be kind to the Illini this year. W
JAN 24th – MICHIGAN STATE – This is a huge spot for the Hawkeyes. I suspect that Sparty will be highly ranked and they will be coming to Carver-Hawkeye. A win really helps Iowa’s resume and the Hawkeyes have played well against Izzo’s teams most of the time in Iowa City. Upset? W
JAN 27th - @MINNESOTA – Another coach firmly on the hot seat this season is Richard Pitino. Last year was a mess for the Gophers due to injuries and suspensions. I really like the talent on this team with Murphy in the post, Coffey on the wing, Curry banging around, and McGrayer and Washington in the backcourt. Could be a real surprise team this year. L
FEB 1st – MICHIGAN – Who would have thought that a few weeks after Iowa had Michigan on the ropes in the Big Ten Tournament that the Wolverines would make a huge run in the NCAA Tournament. Love John Beilein as a coach, but I think they are a little overrated heading into the year. Still a really tough team. Close game alert here. L
FEB 7th @INDIANA – Predictions for this Hoosier team are all over the map. Some very high and others middle of the pack. One thing I will say, enjoy Romeo Langford this year because he’s one and done. Hard to win in Assembly Hall and I’m thinking IU will be pretty good. L
FEB 10th NORTHWESTERN – This one is in Iowa City. Northwestern isn’t great. Should be a fairly comfortable win. W
FEB 16th - @RUTGERS – I think Rutgers is probably going to be the last place team in the conference. They will get a couple of wins on their home floor, but this won’t be one of them. W
FEB 19th – MARYLAND – The Terps were a real disappointment last year, but injuries had something to do with it. Jalen Smith might be the second best freshman in the conference. Fernando is a force in the middle. I just think this team will once again be very inconsistent. W
FEB 22nd – INDIANA – The Hawkeyes get a return game against the Hoosiers and I think there’s a pretty good chance that Iowa flips the script with this one in Iowa City. W
FEB 26th @OHIO STATE – Iowa got a win on their home floor and I think Ohio State’s probably going to be a better team as the season goes along and get this one in Columbus. L
MAR 2nd – RUTGERS – They won’t be good. It’s at Iowa. Should be a relatively easy win. W
MAR 7th - @WISCONSIN – Could Jordan Bohannon send the Badgers home with a loss? Maybe. Really important late season game if both teams are on the bubble. L
MAR 10th - @NEBRASKA – Speaking of bubble teams, here’s another one and unfortunately it’s back to back on the road for Iowa. L
So, if my math is correct, I have Iowa at 11-9 in conference play and 20-11 overall. That’s a bubble team, which is why they have to get a few high level wins and avoid the bad losses.
I think the Big Ten is going to be a massive jumbled mess in the middle with a lot of teams packed in around 12-8 to 10-10 and all of them with potential bubble resumes. That means the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago will be so important this year.
The Hawkeyes look to bounce back in 2018. Can they get to the NCAA Tournament?
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport.com
@hawkeyereport
The start of the 2018-19 Iowa basketball season if officially upon us.
This season there will be plenty of offensive firepower on the Iowa roster. The Hawkeyes return their top nine scorers from last year’s squad and they have also added four star wing Joe Wieskamp to the mix.
Points will not be a problem.
The deciding factor as to whether Iowa rebounds from a 14-19 (4-14) season last year will be defense.
There’s really no use running down the poor defensive numbers again. We all know them and if they are the same this season, then Iowa’s record will probably be where it was last season.
If they become just an average defensive team in 2018-19, then the Hawkeyes should be in post season play.
It’s really that simple.
What I have been interested in is the folks who study college basketball teams from an analytics perspective seems to think Iowa’s going to be better this year.
TeamRankings.com, which always does a nice job of projecting college basketball teams has Iowa just outside the NCAA Tournament. They have Iowa with a 37% chance of making the Big Dance this year and finishing with a 19-11 overall record and 11-9 in Big Ten play.
KenPom.com, which is pretty much a gold standard when it comes to the deep dives into statistical analysis of college hoops, also has Iowa with a 19-11 record and 10-10 in conference play. KenPom.com has Iowa as the 35th best team in his overall rankings and my best guess is that would make them an NCAA Tournament worthy team.
You may be asking, well, Iowa is supposed to play 31 games and that’s only 30 projections. These sites can’t project the wins/losses if they don’t know the opponent, so they can’t project a game against either Syracuse or UCONN in the 2K event in New York City.
We know what the smart guys think of Iowa, but what about the beat writer who tends to have more misses then hits when it comes to projecting wins and losses?
Well, if you keep reading you will get my thoughts.
First, the non-conference slate of games. Rather than predict every game of the non-conference schedule, I’ll give a general overview of six of the games and dive a little deeper into the other five.
Also, the Big Ten is once again playing a pair of games earlier in the season, in late November and early December, so we will discuss those contests in the conference portion.
There are six games that are automatic wins. These are the “buy games” or part of the 2K event that Iowa is part of at Madison Square Garden. Those games are UMKC, UW-Green Bay, Alabama State, Western Carolina, Savannah State, and Bryant.
The other five games are: Oregon, Syracuse/UCONN, Pittsburgh, Iowa State, and UNI.
Iowa should beat Pittsburgh, who is rebuilding, and UNI, who will probably give the Hawkeyes a run for their money. The other three games, Iowa will need to probably go 2-1 in. The Iowa State game is in Iowa City, so the Hawkeyes have a good shot at winning that contest. Oregon is the highest ranked team of the bunch and will be the most likely loss. If Iowa plays UCONN, who I suspect will lose to Syracuse, they should be able to win that contest. Basically 2-1 or 1-2 is the most likely outcome. If it’s 0-3, Iowa is probably in trouble. If it’s 3-0, this season is going to be off to a roaring start.
So, let’s go conservative and say Iowa goes 9-2 in the non-conference.
On to the conference games, which begin in late November.
NOV. 30th – WISCONSIN – it was a disappointing year for the Badgers, who missed the NCAA Tournament and had their string of top four finishes in conference play broken. This Wisconsin team will be better because they are healthy and Ethan Happ is looking to go out with a strong finish to his career. Fran has had good success against the Badgers and Iowa gets this one. W
DEC 3rd - @MICHIGAN STATE – The Spartans are the consensus pick to win the Big Ten this year. Shocking. I think that’s probably the case most years. There isn’t as much star power with this MSU team. But, they do have good depth and talent, as they do most years under Tom Izzo. Tough place to win for Iowa over the years. L
JAN 3rd - @PURDUE – It seems like Iowa always ends up playing at Purdue in early January. The Boilers are a really interesting team this season. They have the best player in the conference in Carson Edwards, who could go all Russell Westbrook this year. But, they lost four starters. Not sure what to think of them this year. L
JAN 6th – NEBRASKA – The Huskers went 22-11 last year and didn’t go dancing, so Tim Miles sits on the hot seat again. They have four really good players in Watson, Roby, Palmer, and Copeland, but their depth is questionable heading into the season. W
JAN 9th - @NORTHWESTERN – After making the NCAA Tournament the year before, the Cats came back to earth last year, finishing 15-17. The bad part for Northwestern is they also lost a lot of talent off last year’s team. They will build around Pardon and Law this season, but not enough pieces. W
JAN 12th – OHIO STATE – The Buckeyes were the surprise of the conference last year under a first year coach in Chris Holtmann. They lost Bates-Diop to the NBA and Tate is also gone. They will build around Kaleb Wesson and guard C.J. Jackson this year. They won’t be as good as last year and this one is in Iowa City. W
JAN 16th - @PENN STATE – Last year’s trip to Happy Valley might have been rock bottom for Iowa’s defensive struggles. No more Shep Garner and Tony Carr at Penn State means their backcourt takes a hit from a shooting perspective. This is one of those games that Iowa needs to win if they are going to get to the NCAA Tournament. L
JAN 20th – ILLINOIS – I know Illini fans are pretty excited about the potential of this team, but they have real issues up front. I like the young talent at guard in Frazier and Dosunmu and think they will be tough to handle. But, the road won’t be kind to the Illini this year. W
JAN 24th – MICHIGAN STATE – This is a huge spot for the Hawkeyes. I suspect that Sparty will be highly ranked and they will be coming to Carver-Hawkeye. A win really helps Iowa’s resume and the Hawkeyes have played well against Izzo’s teams most of the time in Iowa City. Upset? W
JAN 27th - @MINNESOTA – Another coach firmly on the hot seat this season is Richard Pitino. Last year was a mess for the Gophers due to injuries and suspensions. I really like the talent on this team with Murphy in the post, Coffey on the wing, Curry banging around, and McGrayer and Washington in the backcourt. Could be a real surprise team this year. L
FEB 1st – MICHIGAN – Who would have thought that a few weeks after Iowa had Michigan on the ropes in the Big Ten Tournament that the Wolverines would make a huge run in the NCAA Tournament. Love John Beilein as a coach, but I think they are a little overrated heading into the year. Still a really tough team. Close game alert here. L
FEB 7th @INDIANA – Predictions for this Hoosier team are all over the map. Some very high and others middle of the pack. One thing I will say, enjoy Romeo Langford this year because he’s one and done. Hard to win in Assembly Hall and I’m thinking IU will be pretty good. L
FEB 10th NORTHWESTERN – This one is in Iowa City. Northwestern isn’t great. Should be a fairly comfortable win. W
FEB 16th - @RUTGERS – I think Rutgers is probably going to be the last place team in the conference. They will get a couple of wins on their home floor, but this won’t be one of them. W
FEB 19th – MARYLAND – The Terps were a real disappointment last year, but injuries had something to do with it. Jalen Smith might be the second best freshman in the conference. Fernando is a force in the middle. I just think this team will once again be very inconsistent. W
FEB 22nd – INDIANA – The Hawkeyes get a return game against the Hoosiers and I think there’s a pretty good chance that Iowa flips the script with this one in Iowa City. W
FEB 26th @OHIO STATE – Iowa got a win on their home floor and I think Ohio State’s probably going to be a better team as the season goes along and get this one in Columbus. L
MAR 2nd – RUTGERS – They won’t be good. It’s at Iowa. Should be a relatively easy win. W
MAR 7th - @WISCONSIN – Could Jordan Bohannon send the Badgers home with a loss? Maybe. Really important late season game if both teams are on the bubble. L
MAR 10th - @NEBRASKA – Speaking of bubble teams, here’s another one and unfortunately it’s back to back on the road for Iowa. L
So, if my math is correct, I have Iowa at 11-9 in conference play and 20-11 overall. That’s a bubble team, which is why they have to get a few high level wins and avoid the bad losses.
I think the Big Ten is going to be a massive jumbled mess in the middle with a lot of teams packed in around 12-8 to 10-10 and all of them with potential bubble resumes. That means the Big Ten Tournament in Chicago will be so important this year.
