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House GOP nears plan for Trump’s agenda — but may not have the votes

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HB King
May 29, 2001
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House Republicans are uniting around a massive tax and spending bill to codify President Donald Trump’s campaign promises that will not require substantial spending reductions, according to three people familiar with negotiations, because party leaders have decided to write off the multitrillion-dollar cost of new tax cuts.

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GOP leadership earlier this week unveiled a plan to lawmakers that will cut $315 billion in spending over 10 years, but will add another $325 billion in spending on Trump’s national security and immigration crackdown, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private briefings.

Major portions of Trump’s 2017 tax cut — which lowered rates for businesses and all income brackets but concentrated benefits among the most wealthy — are set to expire at the end of the year. The House GOP plans to extend those provisions and add other business tax incentives, at a cost of $5.5 trillion over a decade. Because the legislation mainly aims to renew some expiring policies, Republicans will not factor in the cost of the tax cuts in the bill, though they will claim projected increases in federal revenue from much-hoped-for private-sector growth, the people said.


The details are not finalized, the people said, and may change as lawmakers offer feedback. The House Budget Committee could review that legislation as soon as this week, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) told reporters on Wednesday.

Johnson laid out this framework during closed-door meetings at the GOP’s policy retreat this week at Trump’s Doral, Florida, golf resort. Republicans hoped to leave the three-day gathering with a “blueprint,” he said, to proceed on a “reconciliation” package; special legislation that allows the GOP to head off a Democratic Senate filibuster.
They departed with significant buy-in on the plan that emerged, but not enough to overcome their narrow House majority, where fiscal zealots often derail policies favored by leadership, and even Trump.

It’s not clear how the House’s blueprint accounts for some of Trump’s other campaign promises, including ending taxes on tips, overtime wages and Social Security benefits, which would add $3.6 trillion to the national debt over 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The GOP also expects to factor in Trump’s tariffs as revenue that will reduce the legislation’s price tag, the people said. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Friday that the president planned to impose 25 percent duties on Canada and Mexico, and 10 percent levies on China as soon as Saturday.
Now the president and Johnson, his closest ally in Congress, must solve a complex political math problem. Passing a “big beautiful bill” that tackles everything from retooling energy policy to taxes will require nearly all House Republicans on board — and they are very clearly not.

Johnson has tried to match Trump’s appetite for a rapid overhaul by setting an ambitious timeline to pass his agenda by late spring. But House Republicans’ historically slim margins and disagreement with the Senate on how to package Trump’s priorities could soon derail Republicans’ campaign promises.

Roughly 170 House Republicans gathered at their policy retreat at the Trump National Doral Miami golf resort where committee chairs presented breakdowns for budget reductions, raising federal revenue and new spending.
Though a majority of House Republicans are united on the proposed path forward, too many remain uncommitted to overcome their soon-to-be one-vote margin. If they can’t pass a budget to jump-start the process, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) and his caucus have a proposal ready to go, according to a leadership aide. The Senate wants to break up the legislative package into two pieces, which would complicate passage in the House.

Republicans return to Washington on Tuesday to embark on the challenge, fully aware that previous attempts to curtail spending and enact conservative policies have been derailed by fiscal hawks.

“This is going to be a very difficult 60 days,” Rep. Mike Flood (R-Nebraska) said.
Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minnesota), the No. 3 House Republican, has led meetings with all but 14 GOP members about the tax package, Johnson said. But those nonparticipants loom large, and their concerns over the national debt could block the party’s progress.
House Republican leaders hope to spend next week getting final buy-in from those lawmakers who have yet to engage on the proposals. If committees are able to approve the policies, the budget should be “a passable bill,” said Rep. Blake D. Moore (R-Utah).

“If we can’t move forward after that, then it’s individuals playing an individual game and getting the individual attention that they want by blocking something,” he said. “Individuals are now stopping Trump’s agenda.”

Earlier this week, Trump pleaded with House Republicans, urging them to “help leadership” by supporting legislative proposals that a majority of the conference agrees on.
“If you’re going to have most of the people, almost all of them voting for something, you’re going to be okay. It’s not going to be bad,” Trump told lawmakers. You just got to do it. Make life easy.”
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) posted on social media on Tuesday that he did not attend the retreat because he was tired of hearing “more excuses for increasing deficits & not being in DC to deliver Trump’s border security $ ASAP.” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia), who did attend, also bemoaned that there is no “plan on budget reconciliation and our Speaker and his team have not offered one.”

“Are you a Republican Member of Congress leaving Miami today feeling rudderless when it comes to reconciliation? Are you worried you may be dragged into a process that will cause you to break your America First campaign promises? Do you want a plan to unite Republicans and advance President Trump’s agenda?” the House Freedom Caucus posted as the retreat ended.

“Don’t worry, there is a plan for you,” the group continued, attaching a two-page proposal of its own.
Johnson seemed to address their frustration in his final news conference from the golf club. “Some of the members are so exhausted with going through the list of cuts and options that they said they’re now tired talking about it, which is exactly where I wanted them to be,” he said. “Now we gotta move to the active stuff.”

Emmer, who is responsible for delivering GOP votes, argued that House Republicans owe Trump because “he pulled us over the line” during the 2024 election. He also predicted that once Trump knows who in the House GOP is holding out on passing the agenda, the president will get involved.
“You don't want him coming into your district and telling all your voters that you are the one that is preventing the Trump agenda from moving forward,” he said in an interview.
But he conceded that it is hard to move candidates who are not afraid of potentially losing their seats: “You can’t scare someone who’s not afraid of dying,” he said.
 
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