By Max Boot
Columnist |
December 19, 2022 at 2:22 p.m. EST
I’ve lived through two major geopolitical shifts in my lifetime: the end of the Cold War, which ushered in America’s “unipolar moment,” and the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, which ushered in the war on terrorism.
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Now, we are experiencing another turning point – what the Germans call a Zeitenwende — that might be even more unsettling. The new world disorder has been brought about primarily by the Russian invasion of Ukraine but also by other factors, including the rise of China, Iran’s nuclear program (which has now produced enough fissile material to build a bomb), North Korea’s out-of-control nuclear and missile programs (more missile tests in 2022 than in any previous year), the decline of globalization, and the rise of isolationist and protectionist sentiment in the United States. We are struggling to define the post-Ukraine war world even as the war itself rages on. The closest parallel I can think of was the struggle to define the post-World War II world in the late 1940s and early 1950s.
That, too, was a scary, unsettled time. Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union took over Eastern Europe while acquiring a nuclear arsenal. Mao Zedong and his Communist Party toppled the Nationalist government in China. The United States was convulsed by a Red Scare over supposed communist spies and subversives.
Things appeared to come to a head in June 1950, when North Korea, an ally of China and the Soviet Union, invaded South Korea and U.S. forces rushed to South Korea’s defense under the banner of the United Nations. After U.N. forces pushed back the North Korean onslaught, Chinese troops entered the war on Nov. 25, 1950, and sent the allies reeling back. The U.S. commander, Gen. Douglas MacArthur, wanted to respond by attacking China with tactical nuclear weapons. “I’ve worked for peace for five years and six months,” a dismayed President Harry S. Truman wrote in his diary on Dec. 9, 1950, “and it looks like World War III is here.”
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Today, as many fear a nuclear war as a result of another unprovoked invasion (this one in Ukraine), it is worth recalling how the worst was averted more than 70 years ago. Truman disregarded the extremists from both left and right. Some (such as Henry Wallace, who served as vice president under Franklin D. Roosevelt) argued for accommodation with the Soviets; others (including many senior Air Force generals) argued for preventive war against the U.S.S.R. or a wider war with China.
Truman prudently chose a middle path by adopting a policy of containment designed to stop the spread of communism without risking a direct conflict with Moscow. He responded to the Soviet blockade of West Berlin in 1948 not by sending U.S. ground forces to fight their way to the embattled city but by sending U.S. cargo aircraft to keep it alive. The cornerstone of his strategy was to forge alliances with like-minded nations, including former enemies Italy, West Germany and Japan. American multilateralism produced both the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947 and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 — the economic and military underpinnings of the U.S.-led world order. This was followed by the signing of defense treaties with Japan (1951) and South Korea (1953) to extend collective security to East Asia.
Columnist |
December 19, 2022 at 2:22 p.m. EST
I’ve lived through two major geopolitical shifts in my lifetime: the end of the Cold War, which ushered in America’s “unipolar moment,” and the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, which ushered in the war on terrorism.
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
Now, we are experiencing another turning point – what the Germans call a Zeitenwende — that might be even more unsettling. The new world disorder has been brought about primarily by the Russian invasion of Ukraine but also by other factors, including the rise of China, Iran’s nuclear program (which has now produced enough fissile material to build a bomb), North Korea’s out-of-control nuclear and missile programs (more missile tests in 2022 than in any previous year), the decline of globalization, and the rise of isolationist and protectionist sentiment in the United States. We are struggling to define the post-Ukraine war world even as the war itself rages on. The closest parallel I can think of was the struggle to define the post-World War II world in the late 1940s and early 1950s.
That, too, was a scary, unsettled time. Joseph Stalin’s Soviet Union took over Eastern Europe while acquiring a nuclear arsenal. Mao Zedong and his Communist Party toppled the Nationalist government in China. The United States was convulsed by a Red Scare over supposed communist spies and subversives.
Things appeared to come to a head in June 1950, when North Korea, an ally of China and the Soviet Union, invaded South Korea and U.S. forces rushed to South Korea’s defense under the banner of the United Nations. After U.N. forces pushed back the North Korean onslaught, Chinese troops entered the war on Nov. 25, 1950, and sent the allies reeling back. The U.S. commander, Gen. Douglas MacArthur, wanted to respond by attacking China with tactical nuclear weapons. “I’ve worked for peace for five years and six months,” a dismayed President Harry S. Truman wrote in his diary on Dec. 9, 1950, “and it looks like World War III is here.”
Follow Max Boot's opinionsFollow
Today, as many fear a nuclear war as a result of another unprovoked invasion (this one in Ukraine), it is worth recalling how the worst was averted more than 70 years ago. Truman disregarded the extremists from both left and right. Some (such as Henry Wallace, who served as vice president under Franklin D. Roosevelt) argued for accommodation with the Soviets; others (including many senior Air Force generals) argued for preventive war against the U.S.S.R. or a wider war with China.
Truman prudently chose a middle path by adopting a policy of containment designed to stop the spread of communism without risking a direct conflict with Moscow. He responded to the Soviet blockade of West Berlin in 1948 not by sending U.S. ground forces to fight their way to the embattled city but by sending U.S. cargo aircraft to keep it alive. The cornerstone of his strategy was to forge alliances with like-minded nations, including former enemies Italy, West Germany and Japan. American multilateralism produced both the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947 and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1949 — the economic and military underpinnings of the U.S.-led world order. This was followed by the signing of defense treaties with Japan (1951) and South Korea (1953) to extend collective security to East Asia.
