I think this belongs in the "PSU 2018 lineup" thread.
How big is Stickley?
- Thread starter CarolinaHawkeye
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I think this belongs in the "PSU 2018 lineup" thread.
The reason to redshirt them is so they can become complete wrestlers. As you can see in Warner's finals bout, he needs to work on his mat wrestling to be a true title contender. Lee needs to be healthy to be a true title contender. Murin needs to work on mat wrestling to consistency beat Murin or Turk, let alone other D1 starters. These kids dominate HS wrestlers because they are bigger, stronger, faster...they lose that advantage when they are wrestling college upperclassmen. (And don't tell me about their world freestyle success...doesn't translate well). Look at the jump Kemerer and Young made while as true freshman. Look at the jumps Mike Zadick and Doug Schwab made from one season to the next.
Warnerov’s final opponent had skills. Don’t sell that guy short.
A kid shouldn’t be kept on the shelf due to how they would fare at NCAA’s on the first day of the season.
Warner and Lee would most likely improve by leaps and bounds between now and March if in the line up this year. I’d expect high AA finishes from both of them next spring.
Btw, they are both complete wrestlers already. Warner beat “the guy,” penciled in as the hawks starter before the season even started.
I would put my money that Mr Lee and Warnerov would both be title contenters by the end of this season. They would most likely take a couple of loses during the year but would grow tremendously by march very similar to Hall last year I would suspect.
Now that million dollar question is pull the shirt or not Imho if Spencer is not at or near full speed then I say use the shirt and let the other guys on the team show what they can do.
This is true for Warner. Not so sure about Lee. I wouldn't be surprised to see Lee go undefeated if he goes.
Agree to an extent. However, guys can make a lot of progress over the course of a season. Meyer beat Hall last year.
I do love the "the only guy they are losing is Retherford" comment. The guy averages 28.25 pts at 149 at NCAA's. That is more than 2-3rd place finishers without bonus points!
I know some of you want to see the best product possible every season. I get it. But, don't leverage the future because of it. Both PSU and tOSU will be considerably more beatable next season and Lee and Warner will have had a season to get fully acclimated to the DI grind. Is 3rd really that important vs. 5th-7th?
Remember, even PSU had a reloading year just a couple of seasons ago taking 5th at B1G's and 6th at NCAA's. So, unless PSU/tOSU has a major injury or for some unforeseen reason falls on their faces, keep these guys shirted. To me, the benefits to not only the team but the individual, outweigh any perceived gains this season!
I know some of you want to see the best product possible every season. I get it. But, don't leverage the future because of it. Both PSU and tOSU will be considerably more beatable next season and Lee and Warner will have had a season to get fully acclimated to the DI grind. Is 3rd really that important vs. 5th-7th?
Remember, even PSU had a reloading year just a couple of seasons ago taking 5th at B1G's and 6th at NCAA's. So, unless PSU/tOSU has a major injury or for some unforeseen reason falls on their faces, keep these guys shirted. To me, the benefits to not only the team but the individual, outweigh any perceived gains this season!
Could say the same about Taylor. Waiting for him to graduate and then Retherford pops up.
Go take a look at PSU's recruiting class this year and let me know when you see them taking that reloading year...
Just so you know, PSU scored 67.5 the year after Taylor graduated.
Still my point being, you don't just replace someone that scores at that level at NCAA's. PSU will still have hammers in Nolf(only 1 more season), Joseph, Hall, and Nickal(only 1 more season). But, those guys aren't going to cover 28.5 pts and whomever they fill in at 149 will have to improve immensely to even begin to project being able to fill Retherford's shoes.
I would rather see Iowa starting next season with Lee and Warner having 4 years of competitive eligibilty battling a Retherfordless PSU(and don't forget a Snyder,Tomasello and BoJoless tOSU) than putting them in this season on a wing and a prayer when too many bad things can happen.................
How does PSU scoring 67.5 having anything to do with this discussion? They redshirt Retherford that year no? Go look at PSU's incoming recruits as I've said and tell me when you see them taking a rebuilding year.
Bojo is nothing special. Iowa has higher NCAA scorers in the lineup this year than Bojo.
And I emphasized this point several times: don't pull shirts until after midlands when we have a true assessment of where Lee and Warner are at. If they show they have the ability to top 3 AA, pull shirts, if not redshirt. I'm not suggesting to throw them out there on a wing and a prayer. If they are both capable of high AA this year, then this season is very winnable for Iowa with Downey in the lineup.
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You used Taylor as an example that Retherford leaving won't immediately effect anything and I showed it absolutely did and will when Retherford leaves as well.
Really of NaTo, Snyder and BoJo your argument is that BoJo(3rd,3rd,2nd) isn't that good and you have higher scorers? Kemerer is the only one on the current roster that outscored Bo last season and Sorenson is 1 for 3 in outscoring him. Even then, you completely ignored what losing NaTo and Snyder would do. The 3 combined loses them roughly 65 points after this season. That is HUGE!
Now, I agree with the thought behind when/if to pull their shirts, but I absolutely disagree with them having a very winnable situation.
Which lineup comparisons give Iowa a better chance to win:
Iowa-----------------------PSU------------------------tOSU
125:TF Lee--------------Schnupp------------------NaTo
133:Laux-----------------Keener--------------------Pletcher
141:Turk------------------Lee/Cortez--------------McKenna
149:Sorenson-----------Retherford---------------Hayes
157:Kemerer------------Nolf------------------------Jordan
165:Marinelli------------Joseph--------------------Campbell
174:Young/Gunther---Hall-------------------------BoJo
184
owney(maybe)-Nickal---------------------Martin197:TF Warner---------Cassar/McC-------------Moore
285:Stoll------------------Nevills--------------------Snyder
or
125:RSFR Lee---------TF RBY/Teasedale---Koontz(?)
133:Laux-----------------TF RBY/Teasdale-----Pletcher(may redshirt)
141:Turk/Murin---------Lee-----------------------McKenna
149:Lugo----------------Berge/Verkleeren-----Hayes
157:Kemerer-----------Nolf-----------------------Jordan
165:Marinelli-----------Joseph-------------------Campbell
174:Young/Gunther--Hall-----------------------RSFR Romero
184:Wilcke-------------Nickal--------------------Martin
197:RSFR Warner---Cassar-------------------Moore
285:Stoll/Cass--------Nevills--------------------Singletary(if he doesn't RS)
To me, the 2nd set of match ups are considerably more favorable.
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Laux will be gone, and the second set of match-ups happen whether they redshirt or not.You used Taylor as an example that Retherford leaving won't immediately effect anything and I showed it absolutely did and will when Retherford leaves as well.
Really of NaTo, Snyder and BoJo your argument is that BoJo(3rd,3rd,2nd) isn't that good and you have higher scorers? Kemerer is the only one on the current roster that outscored Bo last season and Sorenson is 1 for 3 in outscoring him. Even then, you completely ignored what losing NaTo and Snyder would do. The 3 combined loses them roughly 65 points after this season. That is HUGE!
Now, I agree with the thought behind when/if to pull their shirts, but I absolutely disagree with them having a very winnable situation.
Which lineup comparisons give Iowa a better chance to win:
Iowa-----------------------PSU------------------------tOSU
125:TF Lee--------------Schnupp------------------NaTo
133:Laux-----------------Keener--------------------Pletcher
141:Turk------------------Lee/Cortez--------------McKenna
149:Sorenson-----------Retherford---------------Hayes
157:Kemerer------------Nolf------------------------Jordan
165:Marinelli------------Joseph--------------------Campbell
174:Young/Gunther---Hall-------------------------BoJo
184
197:TF Warner---------Cassar/McC-------------Moore
285:Stoll------------------Nevills--------------------Snyder
or
125:RSFR Lee---------TF RBY/Teasedale---Koontz(?)
133:Laux-----------------TF RBY/Teasdale-----Pletcher(may redshirt)
141:Turk/Murin---------Lee-----------------------McKenna
149:Lugo----------------Berge/Verkleeren-----Hayes
157:Kemerer-----------Nolf-----------------------Jordan
165:Marinelli-----------Joseph-------------------Campbell
174:Young/Gunther--Hall-----------------------RSFR Romero
184:Wilcke-------------Nickal--------------------Martin
197:RSFR Warner---Cassar-------------------Moore
285:Stoll/Cass--------Nevills--------------------Singletary(if he doesn't RS)
To me, the 2nd set of match ups are considerably more favorable.
That's a faulty conclusion though. Of course Retherford leaving is a net loss to PSU. But that wasn't the discussion. Retherford leaving doesn't meant next year PSU will be scoring 67.5 points without him right? And did PSU not redshirt Retherford after Taylor graduated? My entire point is PSU just followed up with the top recruiting class. We've been saying just wait til x guy graduates forever. First was Taylor/Ruth. Next was Nolf/Retherford. Next will be RBY and Hall. They are not slowing down.
Honestly? The point wasn't about who wrestles who the following season, it was about next season being a better chance to win than this season regardless of if you put your absolute best team out (prematurely in my opinion). Insert whomever you want at 133..............
It wasn't about them reloading, it was about Iowa having a better chance to win starting next season. I just don't want to see a season of Lee's wasted on what I see as a very low percentage chance for Iowa to win and a risk of Lee aggravating a too recent injury/surgery!
If you are only looking at Ohio State then yes. Redshirt this year and we have a better shot next year, but that is ignoring the favorites this year and next. Penn State is still the favorites. Next year they lose retherford and replace him with a probable AA. they also lose two holes in their lineup and replace them with probable mid to high AA candidates in RBY and Teasedale. I would suspect PSU will score at least 10 more points next year than this. Maybe closer to 20 more points.You used Taylor as an example that Retherford leaving won't immediately effect anything and I showed it absolutely did and will when Retherford leaves as well.
Really of NaTo, Snyder and BoJo your argument is that BoJo(3rd,3rd,2nd) isn't that good and you have higher scorers? Kemerer is the only one on the current roster that outscored Bo last season and Sorenson is 1 for 3 in outscoring him. Even then, you completely ignored what losing NaTo and Snyder would do. The 3 combined loses them roughly 65 points after this season. That is HUGE!
Now, I agree with the thought behind when/if to pull their shirts, but I absolutely disagree with them having a very winnable situation.
Which lineup comparisons give Iowa a better chance to win:
Iowa-----------------------PSU------------------------tOSU
125:TF Lee--------------Schnupp------------------NaTo
133:Laux-----------------Keener--------------------Pletcher
141:Turk------------------Lee/Cortez--------------McKenna
149:Sorenson-----------Retherford---------------Hayes
157:Kemerer------------Nolf------------------------Jordan
165:Marinelli------------Joseph--------------------Campbell
174:Young/Gunther---Hall-------------------------BoJo
184
197:TF Warner---------Cassar/McC-------------Moore
285:Stoll------------------Nevills--------------------Snyder
or
125:RSFR Lee---------TF RBY/Teasedale---Koontz(?)
133:Laux-----------------TF RBY/Teasdale-----Pletcher(may redshirt)
141:Turk/Murin---------Lee-----------------------McKenna
149:Lugo----------------Berge/Verkleeren-----Hayes
157:Kemerer-----------Nolf-----------------------Jordan
165:Marinelli-----------Joseph-------------------Campbell
174:Young/Gunther--Hall-----------------------RSFR Romero
184:Wilcke-------------Nickal--------------------Martin
197:RSFR Warner---Cassar-------------------Moore
285:Stoll/Cass--------Nevills--------------------Singletary(if he doesn't RS)
To me, the 2nd set of match ups are considerably more favorable.
I fear Warner is not ready and will not be ready to be a title contender this year and that could doom any chance we have this year even if we pull the shirts but if after midlands the coaches think he is finalist material this will absolutely be our best chance for at least the next two years.
125 champ
133 R12- low AA
141 3-4 (Lugo)
149 2nd
157 champ (I know crazy right? But let's wait and see)
165 3-5
174 low AA
184 champ
197 1-3 (if he's ready)
HWT 3-5
3 champs 5 finalist and 9 or ten AA. That's completely using the most black and gold colored glasses I could find and it still might not be enough, but if we wait till the evil empire has RBY and Teasedale I think our chances are even more bleak.
More simply put
RBY+Teasedale+(Berge or Verk) > Retherford
Man, do I ever disagree. RBY and Teasedale are far from proven to be legit DI starters come their true freshman season, let alone surefire AA's. Hell, even Berge/Verk have tons to prove before you pencil them in as AA's. So let's say they all make R12 next season, which is a great accomplishment as a freshman. They score about 8 pts. That is over 20 less than Retherford which is 30 less than your crazy prediction!
Your point: Hold them and make a run at next year
My point: You can make a run at next year either way
If they wrestle it's obviously because they're ready
Those weren't my predictions. I clearly stated that it was totally slanted as far as humanly possible for one side. But I will issue this wager to you. PSU scores more points cumulatively between 125,133,149 next year versus this year. If I'm correct you donate $200 to the HWC. If you are correct I donate $200 to the charity of your choice.
I will agree to that as long as a significant injury negates the bet. If Retherford stays healthy through NCAA's the bet is on!
You simplified my point a bit. It isn't just this year vs. next, it is the cumulative 4 more years you would have after this season.
I would prefer no caveats at all because that could get complicated, but if you need the injury insurance I would also and it would apply to any perceived or potential PSU starter at 125,133,149. I think you can see how that can get messy. You chose. I will bet either way.
I need it because I am betting on the outcome of 1 guy while you have a year to get 3 of the best guys PSU can come up with at 3 weights. I think my needing Retherford healthy is a very fair, single caveat.
Not true. I said that next year PSU would score more between 125,133,149 versus this year.
Vodka,
My comment about Retherford is completely going over your head.
Take Retherford off PSU's team right now. Do they win the Championship over a healthy tOSU? Probably not.
The only reason he is available this year is because Cael redshirted him after his Freshmen season.
Cael redshirted him because he did not feel his team had a chance to win it all that year. That was the first year without Taylor and Ruth.
Now, back to this year.
PSU and tOSU are rediculously loaded and Iowa is not winning the Championship this year. No discussion of crazy scenarios will change my opinion of that. They are historically good.
However in 2022-2023, I believe Iowa will be right in the thick of a Title chase and I would rather have Lee, Murin, and Warner as 5th year Senior leaders on that 2022-2023 team, than whoever will be the recruits that follow them.
Does that make sense?
My comment about Retherford is completely going over your head.
Take Retherford off PSU's team right now. Do they win the Championship over a healthy tOSU? Probably not.
The only reason he is available this year is because Cael redshirted him after his Freshmen season.
Cael redshirted him because he did not feel his team had a chance to win it all that year. That was the first year without Taylor and Ruth.
Now, back to this year.
PSU and tOSU are rediculously loaded and Iowa is not winning the Championship this year. No discussion of crazy scenarios will change my opinion of that. They are historically good.
However in 2022-2023, I believe Iowa will be right in the thick of a Title chase and I would rather have Lee, Murin, and Warner as 5th year Senior leaders on that 2022-2023 team, than whoever will be the recruits that follow them.
Does that make sense?
