*How far do you see the Iowa WBB team going in the tourney this year?*

*How far do you see the Iowa WBB team going in the tourney this year?*

  • First Round

    Votes: 1 1.4%
  • Second Round

    Votes: 22 31.4%
  • Sweet Sixteen

    Votes: 39 55.7%
  • Elite Eight

    Votes: 8 11.4%
  • Final Four

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    70
  • Poll closed .

2432Hawk

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really depends on matchups and if the 3 pt shots are falling for the Hawks.

anywhere from Sweet 16 to Final Four is possible
 

DewHawk

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Depends on which team shows up, but if they continue to play like they have in the last 6 they could make the E8.
 

AMAYS

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Sweet 16. I think getting bounced earlier than that is more likely than getting past the Sweet 16.
Unless Iowa can make it to the 4 or 5 line as a seed, getting to the Sweet 16 will be hard. And if Iowa makes it to the Sweet 16 and is matched up against one of the better teams from the SEC, ACC or Pac-12 (or UCONN), I see a repeat from last year. Iowa's athleticism deficit is just too great to overcome.

It's also somewhat of a challenge to evaluate Iowa because (1) Iowa has yet to play any of the good teams from the Big Ten and (2) it appears the Big Ten has returned to its status as a relative weak sister in WBB. The Big Ten is #5 in conference RPI, NET and ELO. Against non-Big Ten teams that appear in this week's top 25 rankings (AP or Coaches), the Big Ten is 3-14 (Michigan and Maryland beat Baylor, and Purdue beat Ga. Tech).
 
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undersized_post

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Unless Iowa can make it to the 4 or 5 line as a seed, getting to the Sweet 16 will be hard. And if Iowa makes it to the Sweet 16 and is matched up against one of the better teams from the SEC, ACC or Pac-12 (or UCONN), I see a repeat from last year. Iowa's athleticism deficit is just too great to overcome.

It's also somewhat of a challenge to evaluate Iowa because (1) Iowa has yet to play any of the good teams from the Big Ten and (2) it appears the Big Ten has returned to its status as a relative weak sister in WBB. The Big Ten is #5 in conference RPI, NET and ELO. Against non-Big Ten teams that appear in this week's top 25 rankings (AP or Coaches), the Big Ten is 3-14 (Michigan and Maryland beat Baylor, and Purdue beat Ga. Tech).
While this is true, I think there are reasons to believe the Big Ten will perform better in the postseason than the non-conference.

--Michigan was adjusting to the loss of starting PG Amy Dilk. Dilk is now back, playing a supporting role, and Michigan has looked better and better throughout the season.
--Maryland was without Diamond Miller for all of their big games. They are still regaining chemistry. I think Frese will have them ready.
--Iowa played all of our big games within days of our 2-week COVID pause. Call it an excuse if you want, but if we had had more momentum and consistency throughout December, I think we would have, at worst, gone 2-2 in the 4 games we lost.
--Indiana is the opposite case. They had a very strong start to the season, but now have lost Holmes and have been on a COVID pause for multiple weeks. We will see how they end up. Regarding their resume, it's worth noting that the Kentucky team they destroyed is much better than the Kentucky team that is currently playing. They would still be ranked if not for some personnel issues.

The Big 10 surprised a lot of people last year in the postseason, and I think that could happen again.

Regarding Iowa specifically: We are essentially always going to give extra possession away due to losing the turnover margin and the offensive rebounding margin. The key for me is rebounding just well enough and taking care of the ball just well enough for our efficient offense to be able to win games for us. Call me a naive optimist but both these things trended up at the end of last year and I like our chances of that happening again. :D
 
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BraydonRoberts5

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While this is true, I think there are reasons to believe the Big Ten will perform better in the postseason than the non-conference.

--Michigan was adjusting to the loss of starting PG Amy Dilk. Dilk is now back, playing a supporting role, and Michigan has looked better and better throughout the season.
--Maryland was without Diamond Miller for all of their big games. They are still regaining chemistry. I think Frese will have them ready.
--Iowa played all of our big games within days of our 2-week COVID pause. Call it an excuse if you want, but if we had had more momentum and consistency throughout December, I think we would have, at worst, gone 2-2 in the 4 games we lost.
--Indiana is the opposite case. They had a very strong start to the season, but now have lost Holmes and have been on a COVID pause for multiple weeks. We will see how they end up. Regarding their resume, it's worth noting that the Kentucky team they destroyed is much better than the Kentucky team that is currently playing. They would still be ranked if not for some personnel issues.

The Big 10 surprised a lot of people last year in the postseason, and I think that could happen again.

Regarding Iowa specifically: We are essentially always going to give extra to the other team due to losing the turnover margin and the offensive rebounding margin. The key for me is rebounding just enough and taking care of the ball just well enough for our efficient offense to be able to win games for us. Call me a naive optimist but both these things trended up at the end of last year and I like our chances of that happening again. :D
I agree with all of this. I think Iowa's fortunes this year will largely depend on whether it gets a top 4 seed. If we host the first weekend, I like our chances of getting to the Sweet 16. From there, we probably won't be favored to get to the Elite 8, but it would be possible based on matchups.

If we aren't a Top 4 seed, it will be harder, because we will likely have to beat someone at their home. But seeding will also be a mess this year. Indiana is a good example. The Indiana team that plays in the tournament might well not be close to the quality of the team that earned the high seeding.
 
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BraydonRoberts5

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This loss isn't as bad as some have made it out to be. IUPUI's NET, for example, is currently higher than Northwestern's. Our seed will be more defined by whether we can get some upset wins over Indiana/Michigan/OhioState/Maryland than it will be by this one loss.
I'm not sure wins over Indiana, Ohio State, or Maryland would be upsets at this point.

Ohio State feels like a 50/50 game to me. They've looked good sometimes and had terrible performances other times. I wouldn't be shocked if we win by double-digits. I wouldn't be shocked if they shoot the lights out against our defense and win comfortably. I expect something in the middle of those two extremes.

Indiana is a giant ? right now. No idea how they'll play after the Covid pause and without Holmes.

Maryland also seems like a big ? right now. That team should be better than it is. I still think we'll be an underdog because we don't matchup well with them and they have time to figure it out, but if they keep playing poorly, it's probably a 50/50 game too.
 

undersized_post

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I'm not sure wins over Indiana, Ohio State, or Maryland would be upsets at this point.

Ohio State feels like a 50/50 game to me. They've looked good sometimes and had terrible performances other times. I wouldn't be shocked if we win by double-digits. I wouldn't be shocked if they shoot the lights out against our defense and win comfortably. I expect something in the middle of those two extremes.

Indiana is a giant ? right now. No idea how they'll play after the Covid pause and without Holmes.

Maryland also seems like a big ? right now. That team should be better than it is. I still think we'll be an underdog because we don't matchup well with them and they have time to figure it out, but if they keep playing poorly, it's probably a 50/50 game too.
Agree with all of this. I just meant "upset" in the sense that all are ranked higher than us in the AP Poll, as superficial as it is to use that as a metric. A win over any of these teams would be huge improvement to our currently thin resume, which consist pretty much of a road win at Nebraska and a home win versus UCF.
 
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I voted 1st round but realistically I would take a wait and see approach. The next two games will be a good measuring stick of where the team actually is. There has been improvement on the winning streak but we haven't really faced any tough defenses with the exception of Nebraska on the road (when they were healthy) and Iowa was hitting from 3 that night. If we beat NW and OSU, I'll amend my prediction to Sweet 16 or beyond.
 

BraydonRoberts5

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Final 4? On what planet?
A Final 4 isn't crazy. Not likely by any stretch, but not crazy.

When Iowa's offense is on, it might be the best in the country. Czinano is hard to stop in the paint. Iowa has some really good three-point shooters. And Clark can score or set a teammate up to score from anywhere.

Depending on how the rest of the season goes, it is possible Iowa could host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Assuming Iowa advances at home, it could face in the Sweet 16 a team that advanced due to upsets. Or face a favorable matchup like it did in round 2 last year against Kentucky.

Any Elite 8 opponent would very likely be one of the best teams in the country, but Iowa at its best would have a puncher's chance against most teams (maybe excluding South Carolina and a fully healthy UConn). Several other potential #1 seeds have dropped games to teams worse than Iowa already this year.
 

GOHOX69

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A Final 4 isn't crazy. Not likely by any stretch, but not crazy.

When Iowa's offense is on, it might be the best in the country. Czinano is hard to stop in the paint. Iowa has some really good three-point shooters. And Clark can score or set a teammate up to score from anywhere.

Depending on how the rest of the season goes, it is possible Iowa could host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Assuming Iowa advances at home, it could face in the Sweet 16 a team that advanced due to upsets. Or face a favorable matchup like it did in round 2 last year against Kentucky.

Any Elite 8 opponent would very likely be one of the best teams in the country, but Iowa at its best would have a puncher's chance against most teams (maybe excluding South Carolina and a fully healthy UConn). Several other potential #1 seeds have dropped games to teams worse than Iowa already this year.
Your scenario is the opposite of Mad TV's lowered expectations. Clark would have to average 60 to do it.
 

littlez

HR Heisman
Jan 29, 2003
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We’ve seen almost every year with Bluder teams. Fun to watch and even more so with a top 5 player in Clark, who can win games by herself. However to get past the sweet 16 teams you need more athletes, especially wings. We really don’t have any. I’ve heard we have some coming in but I’ve been hearing that forever.
 
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Your scenario is the opposite of Mad TV's lowered expectations. Clark would have to average 60 to do it.
I don't think Clark has to do it all. I think it's the rest of the team that has to step up. We need more from Warnock, Martin, Marshall on a consistent basis and the bench needs to contribute when they're on the floor.

If we played every opponent like we played IL we could make a deep run. Against IL Marshall and Warnock were aggressive. Kate didn't score much but did she other things. There was a WIDE open three that she really should have shot. Not complaining about her other than that shot. Kylie, Tomi and Addie brought it off the bench.

It cannot be the Caitlyn and Monika show. We need every starter and the bench to continue to be aggressive.
 

cyberhawk

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Jun 30, 2009
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Final 4? On what planet?
Planet Optimism
Most likely the Hawkeyes would need to earn at least a 3-seed (probably less than 50/50) to have a near 50% chance to make it to a regional-final/Elite-8 appearance. And, even with a currently unlikely 2-seed (estimated to be no more than 10%), I think the probability to make it to the final four is realistically less than 10%. So I would guesstimate about a one in a hundred chance to get to the final four. At this point, I would say that winning a NT is maybe one in a million. Yet, with the current unprecedented volatility and uncertainty in WBB now, anything seems possible. What I’m saying is “there is a chance”, so let’s just hope.
 
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Planet Optimism
Most likely the Hawkeyes would need to earn at least a 3-seed (probably less than 50/50) to have a near 50% chance to make it to a regional-final/Elite-8 appearance. And, even with a currently unlikely 2-seed (estimated to be no more than 10%), I think the probability to make it to the final four is realistically less than 10%. So I would guesstimate about a one in a hundred chance to get to the final four. At this point, I would say that winning a NT is maybe one in a million. Yet, with the current unprecedented volatility and uncertainty in WBB now, anything seems possible. What I’m saying is “there is a chance”, so let’s just hope
I don't see us getting a 3 seed. Probably 5-7 seed range.
 
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BraydonRoberts5

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Your scenario is the opposite of Mad TV's lowered expectations. Clark would have to average 60 to do it.
No she wouldn't. That's the whole point of the scenario. If we're a top 4 seed, we'll be favored the first two games. If we get a favorable matchup in the Sweet 16 game (which might not be likely, but is certainly possible) that could be a 50/50 game.

We would almost certainly be an underdog in the Elite 8 game, but again unless we're playing South Carolina or healthy UConn, we'd have a shot. Clark might need to go crazy to win the Elite 8 game, but the three before it are winnable.

Just last year Indiana got very close to a Final Four as a 4 seed. The Hoosiers weren't what I would consider an elite athletic team. They also didn't shoot the three particularly well.
 
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No she wouldn't. That's the whole point of the scenario. If we're a top 4 seed, we'll be favored the first two games. If we get a favorable matchup in the Sweet 16 game (which might not be likely, but is certainly possible) that could be a 50/50 game.

We would almost certainly be an underdog in the Elite 8 game, but again unless we're playing South Carolina or healthy UConn, we'd have a shot. Clark might need to go crazy to win the Elite 8 game, but the three before it are winnable.

Just last year Indiana got very close to a Final Four as a 4 seed. The Hoosiers weren't what I would consider an elite athletic team. They also didn't shoot the three particularly well.
Iowa will not get a top 4 seed. Tonight's game is a perfect example of why the Sweet 16 is likely the best Iowa can hope for this year. There is no consistency outside of Clark/Czinano and the perimeter defense is still suspect.
 
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littlez

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No she wouldn't. That's the whole point of the scenario. If we're a top 4 seed, we'll be favored the first two games. If we get a favorable matchup in the Sweet 16 game (which might not be likely, but is certainly possible) that could be a 50/50 game.

We would almost certainly be an underdog in the Elite 8 game, but again unless we're playing South Carolina or healthy UConn, we'd have a shot. Clark might need to go crazy to win the Elite 8 game, but the three before it are winnable.

Just last year Indiana got very close to a Final Four as a 4 seed. The Hoosiers weren't what I would consider an elite athletic team. They also didn't shoot the three particularly well.
But Indiana guarded. We don’t guard. At least not well enough to go farther than the sweet 16.
 

BraydonRoberts5

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But Indiana guarded. We don’t guard. At least not well enough to go farther than the sweet 16.
A 91-90 win counts just as much as a 51-50 win. The Elite 8 team from a few years ago wasn't great defensively either. Better than this team, but still far from great.
 

AMAYS

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While this is true, I think there are reasons to believe the Big Ten will perform better in the postseason than the non-conference.

--Michigan was adjusting to the loss of starting PG Amy Dilk. Dilk is now back, playing a supporting role, and Michigan has looked better and better throughout the season.
--Maryland was without Diamond Miller for all of their big games. They are still regaining chemistry. I think Frese will have them ready.
--Iowa played all of our big games within days of our 2-week COVID pause. Call it an excuse if you want, but if we had had more momentum and consistency throughout December, I think we would have, at worst, gone 2-2 in the 4 games we lost.
--Indiana is the opposite case. They had a very strong start to the season, but now have lost Holmes and have been on a COVID pause for multiple weeks. We will see how they end up. Regarding their resume, it's worth noting that the Kentucky team they destroyed is much better than the Kentucky team that is currently playing. They would still be ranked if not for some personnel issues.

The Big 10 surprised a lot of people last year in the postseason, and I think that could happen again.

Regarding Iowa specifically: We are essentially always going to give extra possession away due to losing the turnover margin and the offensive rebounding margin. The key for me is rebounding just well enough and taking care of the ball just well enough for our efficient offense to be able to win games for us. Call me a naive optimist but both these things trended up at the end of last year and I like our chances of that happening again. :D
Well said and we’ll thought out. Hope you’re right.
 
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littlez

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A 91-90 win counts just as much as a 51-50 win. The Elite 8 team from a few years ago wasn't great defensively either. Better than this team, but still far from great.
Of course it does and it’s way more fun. However when you reach that level (round of 16) you need the athletes to be able to guard. We don’t have that ability. It’s just who we are.
 

JEDN

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Way to early to predict our NCAA seed as we still play Ind., OSU, Maryland, and Mich. Also the Big Ten tourney. Hawks right now are much better than earlier this year and our defense is improved. My biggest concern is our bench play and if we will lose Warnock for any period of time. If Monica returns next year along with a healthy Goodman this could our best shot at an elite 8 or even final 4. Also both Stuelke and Taylor McCabe should be excellent additions next year.
 
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Tail_Feathers

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The women’s NET rankings dropped a couple after the game last night. Still, 19 isn’t bad. Northwestern is 77.

Ohio State, their next game, is 31.
 

creslin_hawk

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Northwestern is a bad matchup for Iowa, we will find out soon how competitive we are against the top big ten teams. Last year we could not hang with Maryland, but beat Michigan. Games with Indiana were competitive. The game with Indiana could be a tossup if Holmes is out
 

farina1

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Sweet 16. I think getting bounced earlier than that is more likely than getting past the Sweet 16.
The will face an athletic team who can defend and that will be the end. Turnovers will be high, inability to rebound and defend multiple athletic players will be the script this year just as in year’s past. Hope I’m wrong but history is on my side.
 
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