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Already planning on itAt this moment, Sweet Sixteen. Poll again after the Big Ten tournament.
Unless Iowa can make it to the 4 or 5 line as a seed, getting to the Sweet 16 will be hard. And if Iowa makes it to the Sweet 16 and is matched up against one of the better teams from the SEC, ACC or Pac-12 (or UCONN), I see a repeat from last year. Iowa's athleticism deficit is just too great to overcome.Sweet 16. I think getting bounced earlier than that is more likely than getting past the Sweet 16.
While this is true, I think there are reasons to believe the Big Ten will perform better in the postseason than the non-conference.Unless Iowa can make it to the 4 or 5 line as a seed, getting to the Sweet 16 will be hard. And if Iowa makes it to the Sweet 16 and is matched up against one of the better teams from the SEC, ACC or Pac-12 (or UCONN), I see a repeat from last year. Iowa's athleticism deficit is just too great to overcome.
It's also somewhat of a challenge to evaluate Iowa because (1) Iowa has yet to play any of the good teams from the Big Ten and (2) it appears the Big Ten has returned to its status as a relative weak sister in WBB. The Big Ten is #5 in conference RPI, NET and ELO. Against non-Big Ten teams that appear in this week's top 25 rankings (AP or Coaches), the Big Ten is 3-14 (Michigan and Maryland beat Baylor, and Purdue beat Ga. Tech).
This loss isn't as bad as some have made it out to be. IUPUI's NET, for example, is currently higher than Northwestern's. Our seed will be more defined by whether we can get some upset wins over Indiana/Michigan/OhioState/Maryland than it will be by this one loss.Huge loss to IUPUI women at home.
I agree with all of this. I think Iowa's fortunes this year will largely depend on whether it gets a top 4 seed. If we host the first weekend, I like our chances of getting to the Sweet 16. From there, we probably won't be favored to get to the Elite 8, but it would be possible based on matchups.While this is true, I think there are reasons to believe the Big Ten will perform better in the postseason than the non-conference.
--Michigan was adjusting to the loss of starting PG Amy Dilk. Dilk is now back, playing a supporting role, and Michigan has looked better and better throughout the season.
--Maryland was without Diamond Miller for all of their big games. They are still regaining chemistry. I think Frese will have them ready.
--Iowa played all of our big games within days of our 2-week COVID pause. Call it an excuse if you want, but if we had had more momentum and consistency throughout December, I think we would have, at worst, gone 2-2 in the 4 games we lost.
--Indiana is the opposite case. They had a very strong start to the season, but now have lost Holmes and have been on a COVID pause for multiple weeks. We will see how they end up. Regarding their resume, it's worth noting that the Kentucky team they destroyed is much better than the Kentucky team that is currently playing. They would still be ranked if not for some personnel issues.
The Big 10 surprised a lot of people last year in the postseason, and I think that could happen again.
Regarding Iowa specifically: We are essentially always going to give extra to the other team due to losing the turnover margin and the offensive rebounding margin. The key for me is rebounding just enough and taking care of the ball just well enough for our efficient offense to be able to win games for us. Call me a naive optimist but both these things trended up at the end of last year and I like our chances of that happening again.
I'm not sure wins over Indiana, Ohio State, or Maryland would be upsets at this point.This loss isn't as bad as some have made it out to be. IUPUI's NET, for example, is currently higher than Northwestern's. Our seed will be more defined by whether we can get some upset wins over Indiana/Michigan/OhioState/Maryland than it will be by this one loss.
Agree with all of this. I just meant "upset" in the sense that all are ranked higher than us in the AP Poll, as superficial as it is to use that as a metric. A win over any of these teams would be huge improvement to our currently thin resume, which consist pretty much of a road win at Nebraska and a home win versus UCF.I'm not sure wins over Indiana, Ohio State, or Maryland would be upsets at this point.
Ohio State feels like a 50/50 game to me. They've looked good sometimes and had terrible performances other times. I wouldn't be shocked if we win by double-digits. I wouldn't be shocked if they shoot the lights out against our defense and win comfortably. I expect something in the middle of those two extremes.
Indiana is a giant ? right now. No idea how they'll play after the Covid pause and without Holmes.
Maryland also seems like a big ? right now. That team should be better than it is. I still think we'll be an underdog because we don't matchup well with them and they have time to figure it out, but if they keep playing poorly, it's probably a 50/50 game too.
A Final 4 isn't crazy. Not likely by any stretch, but not crazy.Final 4? On what planet?
Your scenario is the opposite of Mad TV's lowered expectations. Clark would have to average 60 to do it.A Final 4 isn't crazy. Not likely by any stretch, but not crazy.
When Iowa's offense is on, it might be the best in the country. Czinano is hard to stop in the paint. Iowa has some really good three-point shooters. And Clark can score or set a teammate up to score from anywhere.
Depending on how the rest of the season goes, it is possible Iowa could host the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Assuming Iowa advances at home, it could face in the Sweet 16 a team that advanced due to upsets. Or face a favorable matchup like it did in round 2 last year against Kentucky.
Any Elite 8 opponent would very likely be one of the best teams in the country, but Iowa at its best would have a puncher's chance against most teams (maybe excluding South Carolina and a fully healthy UConn). Several other potential #1 seeds have dropped games to teams worse than Iowa already this year.
I don't think Clark has to do it all. I think it's the rest of the team that has to step up. We need more from Warnock, Martin, Marshall on a consistent basis and the bench needs to contribute when they're on the floor.Your scenario is the opposite of Mad TV's lowered expectations. Clark would have to average 60 to do it.
Planet OptimismFinal 4? On what planet?
I don't see us getting a 3 seed. Probably 5-7 seed range.Planet Optimism
Most likely the Hawkeyes would need to earn at least a 3-seed (probably less than 50/50) to have a near 50% chance to make it to a regional-final/Elite-8 appearance. And, even with a currently unlikely 2-seed (estimated to be no more than 10%), I think the probability to make it to the final four is realistically less than 10%. So I would guesstimate about a one in a hundred chance to get to the final four. At this point, I would say that winning a NT is maybe one in a million. Yet, with the current unprecedented volatility and uncertainty in WBB now, anything seems possible. What I’m saying is “there is a chance”, so let’s just hope
No she wouldn't. That's the whole point of the scenario. If we're a top 4 seed, we'll be favored the first two games. If we get a favorable matchup in the Sweet 16 game (which might not be likely, but is certainly possible) that could be a 50/50 game.Your scenario is the opposite of Mad TV's lowered expectations. Clark would have to average 60 to do it.
Iowa will not get a top 4 seed. Tonight's game is a perfect example of why the Sweet 16 is likely the best Iowa can hope for this year. There is no consistency outside of Clark/Czinano and the perimeter defense is still suspect.No she wouldn't. That's the whole point of the scenario. If we're a top 4 seed, we'll be favored the first two games. If we get a favorable matchup in the Sweet 16 game (which might not be likely, but is certainly possible) that could be a 50/50 game.
We would almost certainly be an underdog in the Elite 8 game, but again unless we're playing South Carolina or healthy UConn, we'd have a shot. Clark might need to go crazy to win the Elite 8 game, but the three before it are winnable.
Just last year Indiana got very close to a Final Four as a 4 seed. The Hoosiers weren't what I would consider an elite athletic team. They also didn't shoot the three particularly well.
But Indiana guarded. We don’t guard. At least not well enough to go farther than the sweet 16.No she wouldn't. That's the whole point of the scenario. If we're a top 4 seed, we'll be favored the first two games. If we get a favorable matchup in the Sweet 16 game (which might not be likely, but is certainly possible) that could be a 50/50 game.
We would almost certainly be an underdog in the Elite 8 game, but again unless we're playing South Carolina or healthy UConn, we'd have a shot. Clark might need to go crazy to win the Elite 8 game, but the three before it are winnable.
Just last year Indiana got very close to a Final Four as a 4 seed. The Hoosiers weren't what I would consider an elite athletic team. They also didn't shoot the three particularly well.
A 91-90 win counts just as much as a 51-50 win. The Elite 8 team from a few years ago wasn't great defensively either. Better than this team, but still far from great.But Indiana guarded. We don’t guard. At least not well enough to go farther than the sweet 16.
Well said and we’ll thought out. Hope you’re right.While this is true, I think there are reasons to believe the Big Ten will perform better in the postseason than the non-conference.
--Michigan was adjusting to the loss of starting PG Amy Dilk. Dilk is now back, playing a supporting role, and Michigan has looked better and better throughout the season.
--Maryland was without Diamond Miller for all of their big games. They are still regaining chemistry. I think Frese will have them ready.
--Iowa played all of our big games within days of our 2-week COVID pause. Call it an excuse if you want, but if we had had more momentum and consistency throughout December, I think we would have, at worst, gone 2-2 in the 4 games we lost.
--Indiana is the opposite case. They had a very strong start to the season, but now have lost Holmes and have been on a COVID pause for multiple weeks. We will see how they end up. Regarding their resume, it's worth noting that the Kentucky team they destroyed is much better than the Kentucky team that is currently playing. They would still be ranked if not for some personnel issues.
The Big 10 surprised a lot of people last year in the postseason, and I think that could happen again.
Regarding Iowa specifically: We are essentially always going to give extra possession away due to losing the turnover margin and the offensive rebounding margin. The key for me is rebounding just well enough and taking care of the ball just well enough for our efficient offense to be able to win games for us. Call me a naive optimist but both these things trended up at the end of last year and I like our chances of that happening again.
Of course it does and it’s way more fun. However when you reach that level (round of 16) you need the athletes to be able to guard. We don’t have that ability. It’s just who we are.A 91-90 win counts just as much as a 51-50 win. The Elite 8 team from a few years ago wasn't great defensively either. Better than this team, but still far from great.
The will face an athletic team who can defend and that will be the end. Turnovers will be high, inability to rebound and defend multiple athletic players will be the script this year just as in year’s past. Hope I’m wrong but history is on my side.Sweet 16. I think getting bounced earlier than that is more likely than getting past the Sweet 16.