How fast will GDP grow in Q3?

[GlenEllynHawk]

At present, with Q3 less than 2 weeks from conclusion, the widely followed Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is forecasting a whopping 32.0% annualized growth rate for Q3. I'm guessing forthcoming data on inventories and net exports is likely to pull that number down, but it's nearly certain that growth will exceed the current all-time record of 16.7% recorded in Q1 1950. After all, even if industrial production and retail sales are unchanged for the month of September (both are currently forecast to grow slightly), they will still be up at 37.6% and 60.1% annual rates, respectively for the quarter. Housing starts are growing even faster. I'll be conservative and pick a nice round number of 20% annualized Q3 GDP growth, but if I was a bettor, I'd take the over on that.

Interestingly, this data is scheduled to be released on Oct. 29, or less than a week prior to the Nov. 3 election. I suspect this has much more to do with Trump's opposition to mail-in voting than potential voter fraud, as he'd like voters to have that number plastered across their screens just days before the election as opposed to already having voted before the number is released.

Does anybody beleive Q3 won't be the fastest rate of quarterly growth on record?

 

[Hawk_4shur]

I certainly hope that it's a least 20%. We have a long way to go just to get back to 0% for the year.

The GOP and Trump will talk about the remarkable comeback. The Dems will say that Q2 was much worse than it should have been, so it had nowhere to go but up.

On Oct 29th, YTD GDP growth will be negative. I don't see it helping Trump.

 

[GlenEllynHawk]

I certainly hope that it's a least 20%. We have a long way to go just to get back to 0% for the year.

The GOP and Trump will talk about the remarkable comeback. The Dems will say that Q2 was much worse than it should have been, so it had nowhere to go but up.

On Oct 29th, YTD GDP growth will be negative. I don't see it helping Trump.

All that, yet no answer to the question?

 

[Hawk_4shur]

All that, yet no answer to the question?

Well, your question was "Does anybody beleive Q3 won't be the fastest rate of quarterly growth on record?"

Sorry I didn't succinctly answer your question.

My answer is YES. Somebody, somewhere believes that Q3 won't be the fastest rate of growth on record.

 

[GlenEllynHawk]

Well, your question was "Does anybody beleive Q3 won't be the fastest rate of quarterly growth on record?"

Sorry I didn't succinctly answer your question.

My answer is YES. Somebody, somewhere believes that Q3 won't be the fastest rate of growth on record.

Well, there were actually two questions. One in the title, and one at the conclusion.

But hey, you're slowly getting the hang of this at least.

 

[nolesincebirth]

In NY and NJ, we are still relatively locked down. This economy is not going to be roaring; we haven’t even started to feel the pain yet. Schools are virtual so parents are only working part time, if that. Businesses haven’t reopened fully so many people are not back to full time work. Remote working is the new norm. Commercial real estate is about to TANK like we’ve never seen.

The stimulus programs, PPP, unemployment carried many people through for a few months. Those have all expired now. People were getting by from the stopgaps but that’s over now. The pain is about to become real.

 

[Hawk_4shur]

Well, there were actually two questions. One in the title, and one at the conclusion.

But hey, you're slowly getting the hang of this at least.

I did answer the one in the title - at least 20%. Now, I did put in modifiers (I hope, at least), and I saw nowhere in the rules that said I couldn't do that.

 

[GlenEllynHawk]

I did answer the one in the title - at least 20%. Now, I did put in modifiers (I hope, at least), and I saw nowhere in the rules that said I couldn't do that.

I hope Kate Upton shows up at my door ina negligee tonight.

(Note, that was not a prediction)

 

[GlenEllynHawk]

In NY and NJ, we are still relatively locked down. This economy is not going to be roaring; we haven’t even started to feel the pain yet. Schools are virtual so parents are only working part time, if that. Businesses haven’t reopened fully so many people are not back to full time work. Remote working is the new norm. Commercial real estate is about to TANK like we’ve never seen.

The stimulus programs, PPP, unemployment carried many people through for a few months. Those have all expired now. People were getting by from the stopgaps but that’s over now. The pain is about to become real.

Indeed, NY and NJ have inlficted massive suffering on their residents.

But that doesn't answer my questions.

 

[soybean]

What OP is describing is akin to the Hawkeyes having Nebraska down by 5 touchdowns in the 4th qtr and then the Husker "rally" with a couple of late touchdowns to make the final 41-14.

 

[GlenEllynHawk]

What OP is describing is akin to the Hawkeyes having Nebraska down by 5 touchdowns in the 4th qtr and then the Husker "rally" with a couple of late touchdowns to make the final 41-14.

Your pain is palpable.