How many B1G teams make it..??

[HawkeyeDenny]

Does Iowa have a chance to make the Dance..??

Maryland8-1 20-2
Wisconsin 8-1 19-3
Purdue 7-3 18-5
Northwestern 7-3 18-5
Michigan State 5-4 13-9
Indiana 5-5 15-8
Iowa 5-5 13-10

 

[DavenportHawk8]

I gonna go with 5. I think if a 6th team gets in, they will be in Dayton as a last 4 in type of deal.

Not a very strong league this year and the bubble is weak as ever.

MSU, IA, and IU would have to win 5-6 in a row to get back into the convo of bubble team. MD, Wisky, NW, and PU are all safe and close to being "lock" status. The rest of the league is battling for that 5-6th spot.

 

[Mohawkeye]

I gonna go with 5. I think if a 6th team gets in, they will be in Dayton as a last 4 in type of deal.

Not a very strong league this year and the bubble is weak as ever.

MSU, IA, and IU would have to win 5-6 in a row to get back into the convo of bubble team. MD, Wisky, NW, and PU are all safe and close to being "lock" status. The rest of the league is battling for that 5-6th spot.

Agree. Crazy that the Big might only get 4 teams in. But my guess is 5. Crazier to think MSU might not make it. The Spartans have participated in 19 consecutive NCAA tournaments (1998–2016), which is the third longest active streak in college basketball, behind Kansas (27) and Duke (21).

 

[Joes Place]

I gonna go with 5. I think if a 6th team gets in, they will be in Dayton as a last 4 in type of deal.

Not a very strong league this year and the bubble is weak as ever.

MSU, IA, and IU would have to win 5-6 in a row to get back into the convo of bubble team. MD, Wisky, NW, and PU are all safe and close to being "lock" status. The rest of the league is battling for that 5-6th spot.

At least 5. If we finish in a clear #5 position, we have a good chance. But that means "not tied for 5th" with another team that has higher rankings and OOC performance.

But to finish at least 5th, I don't think we can fall below 11-7. With road trips to WI and MD, that means we need to win every other game, or split those two games with a huge upset and then only lose one other game.

All the other teams around 5-5 right now actually have tougher schedules the rest of the way out, so we have a good chance to finish tied with them, but we need to finish ahead of the MSUs and INs to take an NCAA spot over them.

On the upside, this young team is improving A LOT with their spacing, defense and moving w/o the ball. So, we could be a pretty dangerous team down the stretch. I think our defense is going to be the difference.

If we go 12-6 and only lose one more game, we'd pretty much be a lock for an NCAA berth. But that's extremely optimistic with how inconsistent our play has been so far.

 

[srams21]

I think the BIG gets 6 or 7 in guys. I think Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, and (gulp) NW are almost locks at this point.

From there:

-Minnesota has been trending down but still has an RPI of 23.
-MSU will end up getting in I think. A young team but very talented and I never underestimate Tom Izzo.
-I think one of Michigan or Indiana ends up getting in as well. The Hoosiers have two incredible wins over KU and UNC. If they finish strong and get 20 wins they are in

We are a very long shot. I would say we have to get to 12-6 to be in for sure. 11-7 puts us at 19-12 overall and I'm not certain we have a strong enough resume at this point to warrant it.

 

[large78]

A Tom Izzo team not getting into the NCAA Tournament with a winning record in the B1G? MSU will get in, unless they totally tank the rest of the season.

 

[HawkAttackDial911]

I guess I agree with most, 5 possibly 6.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

I would put the distribution probabilities at:
4 - 5% (Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Northwestern)
5 - 30% (Add one of MSU, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa)
6 - 50% (Add another of MSU, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa)
7 - 15% (Add another of MSU, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa OR have a B1G tournament champion not already named)

Folks keep looking at the B1G in isolation, but there is an overabundance of underachieving bubble teams this year. Outside of the ACC, leagues won't be eating up a ton of spots. There aren't even many mid-majors that could create multibid leagues (WCC, A10, MVC are the only ones that come to mind).

 

[KuwaitHawk]

11-7 and to the BTT semis gets Iowa in

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

I say 6 maybe 7 if a bubble team makes it to the Big10 championship. But I say 6 is a lock a lot of 7-11 seeds. Minnesota and Michigan st have good RPIs if they start winning they will be in. Indiana will in. Iowa is NIT unless they win 6/8 games and one in BTT. I see Iowa going 4-4 in their last 8 games I have a feeling we may drop one more at home but win one more on the road.

The future looks so amazing for iowa when this freshman class is juniors and seniors I see them being top 10 team and winning a big ten title especially with the stud recruits coming in the next couple years.

 

[IowaHawkeyeFBnBB4Life]

A week ago they had Illinois as first four out?!!! Illinois?!

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

A week ago they had Illinois as first four out?!!! Illinois?!

2 weeks ago they had them as a 11 seed I didn't get that at all.

 

[Gridiron24]

Five feels like the most likely number. The sixth team will be a bubble team, imo.

 

[H4wkfan4life]

6 and of course we have a shot!
but I'm not gonna put my money on it

 

[Obviously Oblivious]

Spent some time at MSU board today and the majority of their fans think four more wins and they are in. I'm not that optimistic of their chances at 10-8 but who knows? Hawks need at least 11-7 in league with at least a win over MD or WI to even be considered IMO.

 

[nagemj02]

The B1G Tournament could be crazier than ever this year. Outside of Illinois and Rutgers, I think that any of the B1G teams are capable of winning it.

 

[johnnashhawk]

If NW doesn't figure out how to win without Lindsay they could drop out. I think he was the most important player on that team, and they could lose a lot of their remaining games.

I'm guessing they'll figure it out in time, but wouldn't be surprised to drop in the standings/ seedings

 

[Iafootballfan]

Any team above .500 in conference will make the tournament. Simple as that.

 

[And1Hawk]

I'd only take 4 or 5. The league stinks this year.

 

[Joes Place]

Any team above .500 in conference will make the tournament. Simple as that.

No; maybe 5 or 6 teams. 10-8 won't necessarily cut it this year.

Breakdown:
MSU has 4 'losable' games left, plus Iowa: @MI, @PU, WI, @MD
That puts them at 10-8 or 9-9 if we upset them

Indiana has 4 'losable' games left, plus Iowa: @WI, PU, @PU, @MN
That puts them at 9-9 or 8-10 if we upset them and no chance at NCAAs w/o a BTT title

MN has 2 'losable' games left, plus Iowa: @WI, @MD
That puts them at 10-8 or 9-9 if we upset them

Iowa's 'margin for error' is simply gone after losing at home, and dropping the road game at Illinois

For Iowa to get a ticket punched, we need to beat every one of the other 'bubble' BT teams on the remaining schedule. We could handle losses to MD and WI, but must win every other game; @MN, @MSU, IU. Win those games and we finish 11-7; at least one or two games ahead of all of them in the conference standings.

If we win all of those games AND pull a road upset vs. MD or WI, we'd be 12-6 and would absolutely have an NCAA spot over all of them.

@ MSU and @MN are not 'gimmee' wins at all, but we'll have to win both to avoid being tied at 10-8 with teams that have stronger resumes. Lose both of those and lose to MD & WI, and we're 9-9 and probably out of contention for NIT as well.

On the upside: team play has been improving dramatically, and being able to score w/o Jok makes Iowa much more dangerous. If the team chemistry is maintained with his return, and he's back to 100%, we could beat anyone left on the schedule. Especially if Ellingson and Bohannon continue their 3pt shooting success. But they cannot 'fall back' into relying only on getting Jok open as our main offense - too many teams are shutting that down when no one else steps up to score.

 

[Suterman]

I just don't see us going 8-2 from here on out and winning a couple of games in the B1G tournament. That is what it will take to get in to the dance.

 

[Hans81]

I think the BIG gets 6 or 7 in guys. I think Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin, and (gulp) NW are almost locks at this point.

From there:

-Minnesota has been trending down but still has an RPI of 23.
-MSU will end up getting in I think. A young team but very talented and I never underestimate Tom Izzo.
-I think one of Michigan or Indiana ends up getting in as well. The Hoosiers have two incredible wins over KU and UNC. If they finish strong and get 20 wins they are in

We are a very long shot. I would say we have to get to 12-6 to be in for sure. 11-7 puts us at 19-12 overall and I'm not certain we have a strong enough resume at this point to warrant it.

Correct, no way the B10 gets less than 6, possible 7 teams, into the NCAA tourney.

 

[HawkeyeDenny]

11-7 and to the BTT semis gets Iowa in

That is what I think also...

 

[ConvenientParking]

I know the bubble is weak this year, but I still think we need the coference tourney. Losses to Virginia and Seton Hall can be forgiven, but you can't lose badly to Omaha on your home court. At this point, I want a strong finish to the conference season and one home game in the NIT. And god bless us all if we can make a run in the conference tourney.

 

[StormHawk42]

No way the B1G gets more than 6. Hell, we're barely into February and all but 4 teams are basically guaranteed 10+ losses (when you figure in the BTT).

 

[HawkCapt1912]

Does anyone honestly think the B1G will not make sure MSU is in the dance?

 

[LuteHawk]

Tom Izzo and the Spartans have a unique way of
climbing into the NCAA Tournament each year.
However, this year will be a special challenge.
Hopefully, Iowa can beat them on their home court.

 

[Suterman]

MSU will have to beat Iowa to make it into the dance. You can take it to the bank they will find a way to beat Iowa. Minnesota vs. Iowa is a toss-up. I don't see the B1G with more than 5 NCAA invites this year.

 

[Iafootballfan]

No; maybe 5 or 6 teams. 10-8 won't necessarily cut it this year.

Breakdown:
MSU has 4 'losable' games left, plus Iowa: @MI, @PU, WI, @MD
That puts them at 10-8 or 9-9 if we upset them

Indiana has 4 'losable' games left, plus Iowa: @WI, PU, @PU, @MN
That puts them at 9-9 or 8-10 if we upset them and no chance at NCAAs w/o a BTT title

MN has 2 'losable' games left, plus Iowa: @WI, @MD
That puts them at 10-8 or 9-9 if we upset them

Iowa's 'margin for error' is simply gone after losing at home, and dropping the road game at Illinois

For Iowa to get a ticket punched, we need to beat every one of the other 'bubble' BT teams on the remaining schedule. We could handle losses to MD and WI, but must win every other game; @MN, @MSU, IU. Win those games and we finish 11-7; at least one or two games ahead of all of them in the conference standings.

If we win all of those games AND pull a road upset vs. MD or WI, we'd be 12-6 and would absolutely have an NCAA spot over all of them.

@ MSU and @MN are not 'gimmee' wins at all, but we'll have to win both to avoid being tied at 10-8 with teams that have stronger resumes. Lose both of those and lose to MD & WI, and we're 9-9 and probably out of contention for NIT as well.

On the upside: team play has been improving dramatically, and being able to score w/o Jok makes Iowa much more dangerous. If the team chemistry is maintained with his return, and he's back to 100%, we could beat anyone left on the schedule. Especially if Ellingson and Bohannon continue their 3pt shooting success. But they cannot 'fall back' into relying only on getting Jok open as our main offense - too many teams are shutting that down when no one else steps up to score.

Go look at the last 10 years and tell me how many teams in a p5 conference above .500 didn't make it.

 

[srams21]

Go look at the last 10 years and tell me how many teams in a p5 conference above .500 didn't make it.

Ohio State ... last year for starters. 11-7 in the BIG and missed the NCAAs.

 

[backinblack23]

I think only 5 make it unless Indiana and MSU both finish really strong. League is down this year, but Iowa has a chance if they can finish 5-2 and get a win in the tourney. I think Iowa goes 3-4 the rest of the way and makes the NIT. The thing I find crazy is that some people are projection the ACC to get 11 teams in, I mean some of those teams are 4-6 in conference play.

 

[StormHawk42]

With their RPI, Minnesota is probably only 3-4 wins away from a bid

 

[Pepperman]

MSU will have to beat Iowa to make it into the dance. You can take it to the bank they will find a way to beat Iowa.

When Iowa goes to MSU, it will be the 3rd game in 7 days for the Hawks. They will be tired. The officiating will be blamed on this board, but in reality the Hawks will just be a little worn out and slower to get in position.

 

[Joes Place]

With their RPI, Minnesota is probably only 3-4 wins away from a bid

Huh? 3 wins would put them at 7-11 in conference play. No chance.
4 wins and they'd be 8-10.

NCAA rarely takes teams that cannot compete to be better than 0.500 in their conference. Boosting up your RPI by playing well in the early season, then laying a turd in your conference and late in the season is a ticket to the NIT, and even NIT generally will not take teams that are under 0.500 in conference play.

Their RPI and ranking will ONLY help them if they finish 9-9 or better, and then only if they are tied with other teams on the bubble. I.e.: if they finish 9-9 and tied with 3 other BT teams for 5th or 6th place, they might get a bid over the others. More than likely, they'd all go to the NIT.