How many "swing votes" are there?

[thewop]

Personally, due to the polarized political climate we've created, I believe less than 10% of people are actual swing votes. I believe you could put a high school dropout in the general election, and slap "R" or "D" on them, and run them against a Harvard educated Lawyer with all the necessary credentials, and put the opposite party label on them, and the popular vote would be no more split than 60/40, because people know who they'll vote for before they know who's nominated.

This excerpt from a poll posted on CNN.com this morning seems to support that:

But Clinton still holds the cards overall in the race for the White House, leading four Republican contenders: She tops Trump and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker by 6 points each among registered voters, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush by 9 points, and businesswoman Carly Fiorina by 10 points.

What say you? What % of people actually pay attention to who the candidates are vs. vote for a party?

 

[TexMichFan]

In a Presidential election I put the swing votes at around 20% with around 12% being truly torn between which candidate represents them the best or which one will do the least damage.

The other big factor is which side turns out their base better. If Clinton ends up the nominee it will be interesting to see how well she does turning out the African American vote. She will win it 90%-10% but if the numbers down it will be a big negative for her chances.

If Bush is the nominee it will be interesting to see how he does with Tea Party.

 

[Funky Bunch]

 

[thewop]

LOL - I'm choosing Carly over Hillary in the Schwing vote.

 

[bagdropper]

I used to think that Adolf Hitler could run for president on either side of the aisle and get 43% - so that means 14% are up for grabs.

I get the feeling that number is most likely smaller in today's times/acrimony.

 

[ping72]

I think a lot more people vote to swing than you'd expect.

 

[CuttyDoesIt]

I think a lot more people vote to swing than you'd expect.

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