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How many true new cases are we getting each day?

artradley

HR Legend
Apr 26, 2013
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Our first peak occurred in early April with a seven day average of over 32k confirmed cases per day, but I think it’s generally felt that with the lack of testing and the large number of asymptomatic people the true number of cases was probably ten times that; or over 300k per day.

Our latest peak was over 68k per day, but I have to assume we’re catching a higher percentage now. Are there any estimates, official or otherwise, on the multiple needed to arrive at the true cases?
 
Early testing typically required prescreening, which meant presenting symptoms before being able to get tested.
 
Art, Art, Art...doncha know by now...wait two more weeks...you'll see. ;) :D

But to address your question, sort of...I too would suspect that we are capturing a higher percentage of actual positives now v. say 3 months ago. Perhaps a much higher percentage of a lower number of cases?? Could it be that we have fewer cases now, but more positive test results, whether they are real positives or not?

Here's a COVID tidbit that I learned last week that I don't think I have shared here on HROT...I was in one of the meat processing facilities that made national news in April/May for having a big outbreak, etc, and I asked about their current status regarding COVID infections, etc.

Their answer...no positive cases in the past 2-1/2 months! I was floored. I am not even sure how to unpack that. So you mean to tell me that 50%, or more, of your workforce was tested positive in the early stages of the outbreak YET there have been ZERO positives in the past 70'ish days. That is what they said and I have no reason to doubt what I was told.

I would love to know "how things look" now at some of the other hot spots from April/May. I will watch the nightly news tonight to see if they have any in depth reporting and/or follow up stories that provide more context and understanding to the "numbers". :)
 
The new cases number is hard to nail down. I know several people in FL who have tested positive multiple times and each one counts as a new case. I also know several people who had symptoms and didn’t get tested or family members of positives who didn’t get tested.
 
Art, Art, Art...doncha know by now...wait two more weeks...you'll see. ;) :D

But to address your question, sort of...I too would suspect that we are capturing a higher percentage of actual positives now v. say 3 months ago. Perhaps a much higher percentage of a lower number of cases?? Could it be that we have fewer cases now, but more positive test results, whether they are real positives or not?

Here's a COVID tidbit that I learned last week that I don't think I have shared here on HROT...I was in one of the meat processing facilities that made national news in April/May for having a big outbreak, etc, and I asked about their current status regarding COVID infections, etc.

Their answer...no positive cases in the past 2-1/2 months! I was floored. I am not even sure how to unpack that. So you mean to tell me that 50%, or more, of your workforce was tested positive in the early stages of the outbreak YET there have been ZERO positives in the past 70'ish days. That is what they said and I have no reason to doubt what I was told.

I would love to know "how things look" now at some of the other hot spots from April/May. I will watch the nightly news tonight to see if they have any in depth reporting and/or follow up stories that provide more context and understanding to the "numbers". :)

If you don’t test, you don’t have any positive cases.
 
Art, Art, Art...doncha know by now...wait two more weeks...you'll see. ;) :D

But to address your question, sort of...I too would suspect that we are capturing a higher percentage of actual positives now v. say 3 months ago. Perhaps a much higher percentage of a lower number of cases?? Could it be that we have fewer cases now, but more positive test results, whether they are real positives or not?

Here's a COVID tidbit that I learned last week that I don't think I have shared here on HROT...I was in one of the meat processing facilities that made national news in April/May for having a big outbreak, etc, and I asked about their current status regarding COVID infections, etc.

Their answer...no positive cases in the past 2-1/2 months! I was floored. I am not even sure how to unpack that. So you mean to tell me that 50%, or more, of your workforce was tested positive in the early stages of the outbreak YET there have been ZERO positives in the past 70'ish days. That is what they said and I have no reason to doubt what I was told.

I would love to know "how things look" now at some of the other hot spots from April/May. I will watch the nightly news tonight to see if they have any in depth reporting and/or follow up stories that provide more context and understanding to the "numbers". :)

All the employees already had it so that plant is now immune.
 
Does it really matter when all indications are that any immunity conferred is only temporary? People will probably contract this virus multiple times I suspect over a long period of time until it either goes away or the infected die.
 
Is that a Florida issue because they only track unique cases in Indiana?
Yep. It says it in their reporting guidelines that every positive test counts as a new case. Additionally, they are counted on the day the results are received rather than the date the test is taken. Early on there were situations where results weren’t reported for a few weeks.
 
Yep. It says it in their reporting guidelines that every positive test counts as a new case. Additionally, they are counted on the day the results are received rather than the date the test is taken. Early on there were situations where results weren’t reported for a few weeks.

Interesting.

Makes it tough to get good data.
 
Does it really matter when all indications are that any immunity conferred is only temporary? People will probably contract this virus multiple times I suspect over a long period of time until it either goes away or the infected die.

That is not true. It was based on the antibody test which we have now discovered was not the antibody the provides immunity. If it were true then there would never be an effective vaccine and we would have no option but to sit back and let it run its course.
 
Our first peak occurred in early April with a seven day average of over 32k confirmed cases per day, but I think it’s generally felt that with the lack of testing and the large number of asymptomatic people the true number of cases was probably ten times that; or over 300k per day.

Our latest peak was over 68k per day, but I have to assume we’re catching a higher percentage now. Are there any estimates, official or otherwise, on the multiple needed to arrive at the true cases?


680k
 
That is not true. It was based on the antibody test which we have now discovered was not the antibody the provides immunity. If it were true then there would never be an effective vaccine and we would have no option but to sit back and let it run its course.


If there’s a reliable source that indicates immunity is long lasting after infection please share it because I haven’t seen it.
 
If there’s a reliable source that indicates immunity is long lasting after infection please share it because I haven’t seen it.

Here is one.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ow-long-will-immunity-to-the-coronavirus-last

But these things don’t make as good of headlines. It’s friggin hard to get good information.

And here is a NYT article that discuss the flaw in the notion that antibodies quickly go away:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/26/health/coronvirus-antibody-tests.amp.html
 
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Nah.... But I got you thinking, eh?

I'm always thinking. I thought I'd get pointed in the direction to some serious ruminations on the subject, but I am disappointed. 680k is certainly possible, but I would suspect much lower.
 
On March 27 Italy had 919 covid deaths. This last week they've averaged 7 per day.
 
On March 27 Italy had 919 covid deaths. This last week they've averaged 7 per day.
And Australia has had about 200 deaths and they have passed draconian dictator style martial law recently for no apparent reason in large cities

It makes no sense

the people there have been disarmed and they are being abused
 
Our first peak occurred in early April with a seven day average of over 32k confirmed cases per day, but I think it’s generally felt that with the lack of testing and the large number of asymptomatic people the true number of cases was probably ten times that; or over 300k per day.

Our latest peak was over 68k per day, but I have to assume we’re catching a higher percentage now. Are there any estimates, official or otherwise, on the multiple needed to arrive at the true cases?
Atlanta hospital admissions and ICU utilization has come down in the last 2 weeks and it is still higher than the earlier peak.
 
Here is one.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ow-long-will-immunity-to-the-coronavirus-last

But these things don’t make as good of headlines. It’s friggin hard to get good information.

And here is a couple NYT articles that discuss the flaw in the notion that antibodies quickly go away:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/26/health/coronvirus-antibody-tests.amp.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/26/health/coronvirus-antibody-tests.amp.html

Thanks Boo, that gives me some hope.
 
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And Australia has had about 200 deaths and they have passed draconian dictator style martial law recently for no apparent reason in large cities

It makes no sense

the people there have been disarmed and they are being abused
What does their firearm legislation have to do with the pandemic? Are you suggesting armed violence is the solution to stop the rules in Australia right now?

If so, why don’t you do us all a favor and go there to lead the charge.
 
Yep. It says it in their reporting guidelines that every positive test counts as a new case. Additionally, they are counted on the day the results are received rather than the date the test is taken. Early on there were situations where results weren’t reported for a few weeks.

Please link those guidelines. I have read that a person counts as one case regardless of the number of positive tests. It has also been reported that negative tests are counted each time one person has show negative which drives down the positive rate.
 
What does their firearm legislation have to do with the pandemic? Are you suggesting armed violence is the solution to stop the rules in Australia right now?

If so, why don’t you do us all a favor and go there to lead the charge.
No why dont you go there and enjoy socialist dictatorship. Do us all a favor
 
Please link those guidelines. I have read that a person counts as one case regardless of the number of positive tests. It has also been reported that negative tests are counted each time one person has show negative which drives down the positive rate.
Find the guidelines yourself. Of course the negatives are counted that way. Positivity rate is based on total tests, not new tests per person. New cases should not count the same infection multiple times. If someone gets better and is positive again it should be another new case.
 
My mom's nursing home is blowing up with cases and people are dying, but hey, it's a hoax. No worries.
 
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So why did you bring gun ownership into the discussion? Try to stay on topic - it will help you look like less of an idiot. Considering the atrocious grammar in your post you need all the help you can get.
The disregard and abuse of human rights in Australia right now includes home confinement 23 hours a day and military/police check points. They can’t travel more than 5 km from their home. There are already food/meat shortages.
 
The disregard and abuse of human rights in Australia right now includes home confinement 23 hours a day and military/police check points. They can’t travel more than 5 km from their home. There are already food/meat shortages.

And the people are rioting in the streets...

Wait.. What?
 
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