How Many Wins Define Success

[nilekinnick1938]

How many wins justify a good year or what are the expectations ? I know that there were less games in the past so this post only deals with the current amount of games Iowa can possibly play

3 non-conference
9 conference
1 Big Ten Championship Game
2 Playoff Games and or 1 Bowl Game

So we will lock it in as 15 possible wins .

14-15 A Outstanding/ Legendary
12-13 B Very Good/Excellent
10-11 C Successful

* I believe that with our non conference schedule we should always have 3 non conference wins
We should expect to win 75% of our
regular season conference games which would be 7-2 possibly 6-3 in a difficult schedule year like this year but we should expect to win a bowl game for the 10 win minimum.

So we are 4-2 now so we need 6 more wins in my book for a successful season in my view. And this is how we most likely will get there. Of course any combination could do it but we have to win 4 of the next 6.

Northwestern WIN
Purdue. WIN
Minnesota. WIN
Nebraska. WIN

Wisconsin Loss
Ohio State Loss

Penn State Loss
Ohio State. Loss
Ilinois Win

Bowl Game Win

 

[millah_22]

8+ good
10+ great
12+ highlight of our lives

 

[WhoaNellieCy]

How many wins justify a good year or what are the expectations ? I know that there were less games in the past so this post only deals with the current amount of games Iowa can possibly play

3 non-conference
9 conference
1 Big Ten Championship Game
2 Playoff Games and or 1 Bowl Game

So we will lock it in as 15 possible wins .

14-15 A Outstanding/ Legendary
12-13 B Very Good/Excellent
10-11 C Successful

* I believe that with our non conference schedule we should always have 3 non conference wins
We should expect to win 75% of our
regular season conference games which would be 7-2 possibly 6-3 in a difficult schedule year like this year but we should expect to win a bowl game for the 10 win minimum.

So we are 4-2 now so we need 6 more wins in my book for a successful season in my view. And this is how we most likely will get there. Of course any combination could do it but we have to win 4 of the next 6.

Northwestern WIN
Purdue. WIN
Minnesota. WIN
Nebraska. WIN

Wisconsin Loss
Ohio State Loss

Penn State Loss
Ohio State. Loss
Ilinois Win

Bowl Game Win

Assuming no major injuries or special circumstances
7-5 Expected
8-4 Beats Expectations
10-2 Amazing
13-2 Whoa Nellie!

Avgs under Ferentz
W/L - 7.5 - 5.1
Percentage - 60%

 

[Qued18]

8 with a bowl win

 

[SDHawkDoc]

Less than 6 wins = bad
6-6 = marginal
7-5 = Ok
8-4 = good
9-3 = really good
10-2 = super
11-1 = super duper
12-0 = super dee duper

Bowl win = with a cherry on top

That's as scientific, analytical assessment as you'll find anywhere.

 

[Suterman]

6 or less- Poor
7- Fair
8- Good
9- Great
10+ Outstanding

 

[FranklinHawk]

How many wins justify a good year or what are the expectations ? I know that there were less games in the past so this post only deals with the current amount of games Iowa can possibly play

3 non-conference
9 conference
1 Big Ten Championship Game
2 Playoff Games and or 1 Bowl Game

So we will lock it in as 15 possible wins .

14-15 A Outstanding/ Legendary
12-13 B Very Good/Excellent
10-11 C Successful

* I believe that with our non conference schedule we should always have 3 non conference wins
We should expect to win 75% of our
regular season conference games which would be 7-2 possibly 6-3 in a difficult schedule year like this year but we should expect to win a bowl game for the 10 win minimum.

So we are 4-2 now so we need 6 more wins in my book for a successful season in my view. And this is how we most likely will get there. Of course any combination could do it but we have to win 4 of the next 6.

Northwestern WIN
Purdue. WIN
Minnesota. WIN
Nebraska. WIN

Wisconsin Loss
Ohio State Loss

Penn State Loss
Ohio State. Loss
Ilinois Win

Bowl Game Win

Huh? 4 more wins in regular season plus a bowl win = 9 wins, which apparently is a D in your grading scale.

 

[iowa surfer]

8 with a bowl win

Agree 99%

 

[Titanhawk2]

One - each week they play

 

[markfromj]

My standard, stated several times here, is that, heading in to the last Big Ten game, there is at lease one scenario, however remote, where Iowa wins the West. That ("being competitive") is "success" to me.

 

[markfromj]

8 with a bowl win

Meaning, 8 plus a bowl win?

 

[nilekinnick1938]

8+ good
10+ great
12+ highlight of our lives

Pretty l

 

[nitewing]

finishing in the top 25 = a successful season

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

Year-to-year it's a moving target. For example, in 2010 I would have said anything less than 10 wins (including the bowl game) would have been disappointing - that team was loaded and it was an incredibly frustrating season to watch.

However, if we disregard individual season expectations, I would say the bottom-line "acceptable" season is 7 wins. I'm not happy with 7 wins, but I'm going to say it's unacceptable either. I think a good expected average is 8 wins. 9 wins is a good season, and anything above that is very good.

 

[hawk in mizzou]

Given that Iowa is one of the good programs (not a blue blood great program), 8 wins is a good season, 9 wins is a great season, and 10 or more wins is a special season to enjoy.

 

[87alum87]

My definition of a completely successful season:

1. Win 2 or 3 games in the Non-Conference. If there is a loss, it should be to a top 25 team (if we ever play one). No September turds.
2. Win at least 5 in the Conference.
3. Win the bowl game.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

Depends on the schedule.

Iowa finished 7-6 in 2014 with a relatively easy schedule. I would say the 2014 season was mediocre at best. If Iowa were to finish 7-6 this season, however, that looks a whole lot different, considering they play Penn State, Ohio State, @ MSU, @ Wisconsin.

At Iowa, I think finishing in the Top 25 is a successful season. Having a good showing in a bowl game is also part of the deal. Top 10 finishes exceed expectations. Iowa is not a blue blood.

 

[TKingpin]

I am not such a big fan of 7 wins. 8 wins means you have a good team, but not great.

I like the 9 win total. If you go 9-3 in the B1G you are probably ranked in the top 25.

Anything more than that is a special season.

 

[bagdropper]

I generally don't like to assign a win total to "happiness", but there is one thing I am certain of for 2017.

A bowl win is an absolute must for this program's psyche. After 2012, tack on a bowl win to any of the following years and we look at those years much differently.

Yes, in all those years, the bowl game itself had a sort of letdown quality to it as far as "we really wanted more out of the regular season", but wins sure's hell would have relieved an awful lot of the pain as to how the regular season wound up ending at.

 

[Herky96]

What defines a successful season has more to do with who you played, where you played them, and the result than it does simple wins and losses. Another factor to consider is injuries. You could be devastated by injury, go 8-4 against a tough schedule with road wins against ranked teams, and you could say 8-4 given the circumstances was an amazing result. You could also have Wisconsin's current schedule, go undefeated in the regular season, eke out a win in the B1G Championship, but then get steam rolled by Bama in the CFP only to arrive at the conclusion you had a good year not a great year. A great year imo is one in which the team beats everyone they are supposed to beat on paper, finds a way to pull 1 or 2 upsets, and wins the bowl game. Most years that would be 9-4 or 10-3. I've come to the realization that the team will only achieve more than that about once every 5 years. Also, I realize I may never see another undefeated regular season in my lifetime regardless of the strength of schedule. I'm ok with that, because to me winning and losing doesn't matter it's that they compete. I'll be there for my team no matter how great or terrible they are because I am a Hawkeye from the cradle to the grave, I bleed Black and Gold, and Kinnick is my happy place.

 

[nilekinnick1938]

8+ good
10+ great
12+ highlight of our lives

Sorry to disagree but 8 wins s good year that would mean we could win three cupcake non conference games go 5-4 in the big ten and lose a bowl game... geez that's not even average

Huh? 4 more wins in regular season plus a bowl win = 9 wins, which apparently is a D in your grading scale.

yes I would say 3-0 non con plus 5-4 conference and 9 wins is below expectations losing 4 conference games is unacceptable any way you measure it

 

[nilekinnick1938]

It seems as though the concensus is that 3 non conference wins and 5 conference wins justifys a good year? Geez the expectations here are very low... how in the world can anyone justify barely finishing over .500 in conference good football? Considering we play in a weak division and half of those games are at home? If we cannot muster 10 wins a year 66% than we essentially are not successful...

 

[hawkeye bb n fb fan]

It seems as though the concensus is that 3 non conference wins and 5 conference wins justifys a good year? Geez the expectations here are very low... how in the world can anyone justify barely finishing over .500 in conference good football? Considering we play in a weak division and half of those games are at home? If we cannot muster 10 wins a year 66% than we essentially are not successful...

I agree with this wholeheartedly

 

[LuciousBDragon]

0-12 - Fire everyone
1-11 - Fire everyone
2-10 - Fire everyone
3-9 - Fire everyone
4-8 - Fire someone
5-7 - Fire KoK or GD
6-6 - meh, someone's on the hot-seat next year
7-5 / 7-6 - meh but we beat a ranked team we should not have (Kirk Ferentz says great season)
8-4 / 8-5 - Ok, cool, Tampa here we come. Ybor City and the beach will be coo....ah crap here come Florida and/or bad refs
9-3 / 9-4 - Solid season*
10-2 - Yes! But how in the heck did we not win the West and laid an egg in the Citrus Bowl or whatever they call it these days
10-3 - Yes! But we got hosed in the B1G Title Game and some school located south of the 36th parallel had a month to prep for our predictable offense and took us to school in the bowl game
11-2 - Big Ten Champs! Will tell stories about this season to my one son who sorta likes football and how we beat a quality SEC East team on some oddly cold night in Florida
12-1 - Big Ten Champs! Rose Bowl win and lots of money spent on souvenirs. Northwestern probably beat us.
13-0 - Will tell my grandchildren about this season for years to come and how the AP/Coaches poll totally got it wrong when they left us out of the playoff. Non-Conf schedule was UNI, NIU, & ISU. Half filled Peach Bowl watches Iowa whip a Pac-12 team on an 11am kickoff.
14-1 - Will tell my 2nd wife's grandkids about this season for years to come
15-0 - Disco!


*Season floundered due to rhabdomyolysis or some other medical term we have to look up. Or, there is drama between a Ferentz and a WR's off campus life

 

[bagdropper]

To me, "3-0/8-4 and good year" really means "I can live with it given what the non-con usually is".

Those that are critical of this being merely a good year are probably assigning a much higher wins value to the term "good year". Such as, 10-2 is your definition of a good year.

To me, it's not so much record so much as who the wins and losses were against affixed to any given record. And I personally place a LOT more importance on the bowl game...ANY bowl game, as probably the most defining way to garner some satisfaction from the year.

Not all 8-4's are the same. Just as not all 12-0's are the same. Hell, not all bowl wins are the same either...but considering you're ending the season with a telling reminder of the year itself...win the damn game always, Hawks.

My advise is the same as individuals' tastes in music, movies, food, etc. Every guy posting in any particular thread is going to have his opinions and you are going to have yours. Neither makes you necessarily right or wrong in almost all cases.

Be competent is probably my best answer. Field a talented enough of a football team to where Iowa can win every game. Field a team where I can have confidence that the program is doing the things necessary to make the prior sentence possible. Win the games you're supposed to win, and put yourselves in the position to win the games you're not supposed to. Then, give me a feel-good ending to the season overall regarding the bowl.

THAT is "good enough" for me. I can live with that. And IF I get that, I'm betting Iowa's going to have a great season probably 1-2 times a decade if not more.

Lastly...think about all the other Big 10 teams' fan bases who'd kill for the floor described above. By my count, I'd say that's 8 programs.

And for those thinking I'm settling for mediocrity, Iowa's programs has never been what I described...yes, I want "more".

 

[HawkNole09]

It really depends on who we play and where.

If we’re favored, I expect us to win. If we don’t that’s a fail.

I also expect us to win 25% of the games we’re a dog in.

7-5 is the base for me, you’ve gotta be bowling every year to give the younger players a year to develop. Critical for this program.

I’ve always wondered what Ferentz could do with Alabama or FSU talent. I have a feeling that they’d be dang tough to beat.