MEXICO CITY—When President Trump called her last week, President Claudia Sheinbaum was prepared to speak with a U.S. leader who wouldn’t yield on tariffs. Instead, she negotiated a deal that world leaders are studying for their own trade talks with the U.S. The Feb. 3 call was tough, often tense and ran long, almost 45 minutes, according to people familiar with the matter. Sheinbaum—who alternated between an interpreter and speaking English to make an emphatic point—stayed on message, they said, parrying Trump on trade, drugs and migration in ways that caught his attention without escalating into a disagreement. “One must speak in Trump’s language,” said a person familiar with the discussions. The coup de grace was her administration’s idea: Mexico would deploy 10,000 troops to the border to fight fentanyl flows and help with border security, matching Trump’s own show of force along the Rio Grande.
They agreed to pause tariffs for a month to see how the border enforcement went, with a similar agreement for Canada. By the end, Trump liked her toughness, but at the same time she played ball, these people said. For example, troop deployment is something that Trump loves, one Mexican official said. Later that day, Trump said he “had a great talk with Mexico.” Members of Mexico’s national guard patrol the border wall between Mexico and the U.S. Members of Mexico’s national guard patrol the border wall between Mexico and the U.S. © jorge duenes/Reuters “President Sheinbaum is a woman I like very much,” Trump told reporters, before adding that whether he liked her or not, he still had to stop drugs and illegal immigration. Sheinbaum’s surprise deal with Trump showed Canadian officials that there was a path to avoiding the punitive tariffs the U.S. had announced on Feb. 1, said a senior Canadian government official. The U.S., Canada and Mexico have a joint trade deal that tariffs would upend, dealing each country economic pain but especially for America’s neighbors. Canada at first wasn’t sure what it could put forward that would match Mexico’s offer to move 10,000 troops to the border, but then settled on creating the new position of a fentanyl czar and investing $140 million in a new unit to gather intelligence on organized crime. Canada also said it would follow the U.S.’s lead and label the Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations.
According to the Canadian official, this step irritated the Mexicans, who felt that it supported Trump in his desire to punish the cartels in a reckless way, potentially with U.S. military force. In Europe, where leaders are bracing for trade talks with Trump, officials said they had studied both Mexico and Canada’s response and were in close contact. Sheinbaum is now the most popular politician in Mexico, with approval ratings of 75%. It is a sign of how much the country has rallied around her as Trump threatens to undo a free-trade agreement that has sent Mexico’s manufacturing sector surging in the past three decades. She, along with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, will have another showdown with Trump on March 4, when the pause ends, but business leaders here said they had more confidence she could again find a way to work with the U.S. president. President Trump made tackling fentanyl a campaign promise. President Trump made tackling fentanyl a campaign promise. © Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Her deft hand with Trump wasn’t expected. Known for her stern demeanor, the leftist politician and academic cut her teeth in university activism and is in many ways the opposite of Trump. But she has built relationships with Mexican business executives who speak with Trump and advise her. And her predecessor and mentor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, handled Trump similarly in 2019, when Trump called on Mexico to stem migrant flows to the U.S. López Obrador sent some 28,000 troops to stop migrants at Mexico’s border with Guatemala, and Trump pulled his tariff threat.
Since taking office in October, Sheinbaum has surprised observers in Mexico with her flexibility on some matters of ideology, especially with the local business community and foreign investors. “Over the years Sheinbaum acquired great pragmatism,” said Sergio Aguayo, a Mexican human-rights activist and scholar. “But Trump is also deeply pragmatic.” Tension was high before the Feb. 3 telephone call. The previous Saturday, in announcing the tariffs, the White House said Mexican drug-trafficking organizations “have an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico.” Sheinbaum rejected the assertion as slander, and said the U.S. was doing nothing to curb fentanyl use or combat its sale on U.S. streets. Like Trudeau, Sheinbaum was prepared to pull the trigger on retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports from Republican strongholds, according to people familiar with the plan. Unlike Trudeau, she refrained from disclosing the measures until after her call with Trump. The idea was to avoid cornering him and offer an off-ramp, these people said. Sheinbaum and her top advisers believed Trump wasn’t bluffing about imposing tariffs on Mexico. “I was convinced that within the first minute of Tuesday, the 25% tariffs on all Mexican exports would come into effect,” said Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard. The key was to emphasize bilateral cooperation and open the doors to talks before unilateral measures were imposed, Sheinbaum said shortly after the call. One example was the progress made in curbing illegal migration, which fell more than 80% in recent months because of coordinated, bilateral enforcement efforts. The leaders agreed to schedule high-level meetings to work on migration, security and trade. Trucks waiting in line to cross at the U.S.-Mexico border in Nogales, Ariz. Trucks waiting in line to cross at the U.S.-Mexico border in Nogales, Ariz. © Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg
The wild card in the Trump-Sheinbaum relationship is fentanyl, which is largely produced in Mexico before it is smuggled to the U.S., where it is a leading cause of death for young Americans. Trump made tackling fentanyl a campaign promise, and has said he would take action directly against the cartels that peddle it. But fentanyl smugglers are mostly U.S. citizens who bring in small quantities of the potent drug in special compartments in vehicles that elude detection among the tens of thousands of vehicles that cross the border every day. “The control of the antlike traffic of fentanyl smugglers is almost impossible,” said Raúl Benítez, a military expert at Mexico’s National Autonomous University. Mexico would likely try to make some major captures of drug bosses and take out some fentanyl labs in order to please the U.S. president. “Trump wants heads,” he said. In a news conference with reporters after the telephone call with Trump, Sheinbaum said she tried to defuse Trump’s longstanding concern about the U.S.’s large trade deficit with Mexico, which currently stands at more than $150 billion. “I told him that it wasn’t really a deficit,” she said at a news conference.
The agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada that was signed by Trump himself in 2018 has been an increasingly efficient tool to compete with China and other trading blocs, she told Trump. Mexican manufacturing exports to the U.S. have a high percentage of American components, while Mexico is a top buyer of key U.S. goods and commodities from auto parts to natural gas and corn. “This was the result of being trading partners,” Sheinbaum said she told Trump. At the end of the conversation, Sheinbaum said that Trump asked her how long she wanted to put the tariffs on hold. “Well, let’s put them on hold forever,” Sheinbaum responded. “Well, how long?” insisted Trump. “Let’s put it on hold for a month,” Sheinbaum said. “And I’m sure that, in this month, we’ll be able to deliver results.” Write to Santiago Pérez at santiago.perez@wsj.com, José de Córdoba at jose.decordoba@wsj.com and Vipal Monga at vipal.monga@wsj.com
They agreed to pause tariffs for a month to see how the border enforcement went, with a similar agreement for Canada. By the end, Trump liked her toughness, but at the same time she played ball, these people said. For example, troop deployment is something that Trump loves, one Mexican official said. Later that day, Trump said he “had a great talk with Mexico.” Members of Mexico’s national guard patrol the border wall between Mexico and the U.S. Members of Mexico’s national guard patrol the border wall between Mexico and the U.S. © jorge duenes/Reuters “President Sheinbaum is a woman I like very much,” Trump told reporters, before adding that whether he liked her or not, he still had to stop drugs and illegal immigration. Sheinbaum’s surprise deal with Trump showed Canadian officials that there was a path to avoiding the punitive tariffs the U.S. had announced on Feb. 1, said a senior Canadian government official. The U.S., Canada and Mexico have a joint trade deal that tariffs would upend, dealing each country economic pain but especially for America’s neighbors. Canada at first wasn’t sure what it could put forward that would match Mexico’s offer to move 10,000 troops to the border, but then settled on creating the new position of a fentanyl czar and investing $140 million in a new unit to gather intelligence on organized crime. Canada also said it would follow the U.S.’s lead and label the Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations.
According to the Canadian official, this step irritated the Mexicans, who felt that it supported Trump in his desire to punish the cartels in a reckless way, potentially with U.S. military force. In Europe, where leaders are bracing for trade talks with Trump, officials said they had studied both Mexico and Canada’s response and were in close contact. Sheinbaum is now the most popular politician in Mexico, with approval ratings of 75%. It is a sign of how much the country has rallied around her as Trump threatens to undo a free-trade agreement that has sent Mexico’s manufacturing sector surging in the past three decades. She, along with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, will have another showdown with Trump on March 4, when the pause ends, but business leaders here said they had more confidence she could again find a way to work with the U.S. president. President Trump made tackling fentanyl a campaign promise. President Trump made tackling fentanyl a campaign promise. © Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images Her deft hand with Trump wasn’t expected. Known for her stern demeanor, the leftist politician and academic cut her teeth in university activism and is in many ways the opposite of Trump. But she has built relationships with Mexican business executives who speak with Trump and advise her. And her predecessor and mentor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, handled Trump similarly in 2019, when Trump called on Mexico to stem migrant flows to the U.S. López Obrador sent some 28,000 troops to stop migrants at Mexico’s border with Guatemala, and Trump pulled his tariff threat.
Since taking office in October, Sheinbaum has surprised observers in Mexico with her flexibility on some matters of ideology, especially with the local business community and foreign investors. “Over the years Sheinbaum acquired great pragmatism,” said Sergio Aguayo, a Mexican human-rights activist and scholar. “But Trump is also deeply pragmatic.” Tension was high before the Feb. 3 telephone call. The previous Saturday, in announcing the tariffs, the White House said Mexican drug-trafficking organizations “have an intolerable alliance with the government of Mexico.” Sheinbaum rejected the assertion as slander, and said the U.S. was doing nothing to curb fentanyl use or combat its sale on U.S. streets. Like Trudeau, Sheinbaum was prepared to pull the trigger on retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports from Republican strongholds, according to people familiar with the plan. Unlike Trudeau, she refrained from disclosing the measures until after her call with Trump. The idea was to avoid cornering him and offer an off-ramp, these people said. Sheinbaum and her top advisers believed Trump wasn’t bluffing about imposing tariffs on Mexico. “I was convinced that within the first minute of Tuesday, the 25% tariffs on all Mexican exports would come into effect,” said Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard. The key was to emphasize bilateral cooperation and open the doors to talks before unilateral measures were imposed, Sheinbaum said shortly after the call. One example was the progress made in curbing illegal migration, which fell more than 80% in recent months because of coordinated, bilateral enforcement efforts. The leaders agreed to schedule high-level meetings to work on migration, security and trade. Trucks waiting in line to cross at the U.S.-Mexico border in Nogales, Ariz. Trucks waiting in line to cross at the U.S.-Mexico border in Nogales, Ariz. © Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg
The wild card in the Trump-Sheinbaum relationship is fentanyl, which is largely produced in Mexico before it is smuggled to the U.S., where it is a leading cause of death for young Americans. Trump made tackling fentanyl a campaign promise, and has said he would take action directly against the cartels that peddle it. But fentanyl smugglers are mostly U.S. citizens who bring in small quantities of the potent drug in special compartments in vehicles that elude detection among the tens of thousands of vehicles that cross the border every day. “The control of the antlike traffic of fentanyl smugglers is almost impossible,” said Raúl Benítez, a military expert at Mexico’s National Autonomous University. Mexico would likely try to make some major captures of drug bosses and take out some fentanyl labs in order to please the U.S. president. “Trump wants heads,” he said. In a news conference with reporters after the telephone call with Trump, Sheinbaum said she tried to defuse Trump’s longstanding concern about the U.S.’s large trade deficit with Mexico, which currently stands at more than $150 billion. “I told him that it wasn’t really a deficit,” she said at a news conference.
The agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada that was signed by Trump himself in 2018 has been an increasingly efficient tool to compete with China and other trading blocs, she told Trump. Mexican manufacturing exports to the U.S. have a high percentage of American components, while Mexico is a top buyer of key U.S. goods and commodities from auto parts to natural gas and corn. “This was the result of being trading partners,” Sheinbaum said she told Trump. At the end of the conversation, Sheinbaum said that Trump asked her how long she wanted to put the tariffs on hold. “Well, let’s put them on hold forever,” Sheinbaum responded. “Well, how long?” insisted Trump. “Let’s put it on hold for a month,” Sheinbaum said. “And I’m sure that, in this month, we’ll be able to deliver results.” Write to Santiago Pérez at santiago.perez@wsj.com, José de Córdoba at jose.decordoba@wsj.com and Vipal Monga at vipal.monga@wsj.com
