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How the Economy, Not the Culture Wars, Led to a Surprise Democratic Win in Iowa

cigaretteman

HB King
May 29, 2001
80,075
63,874
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A question for Democrats: How did you spend the weeks around Donald Trump’s presidential inauguration? Moping? Doom scrolling? Ordering in?
Mike Zimmer had no time for any of that. He was running in a special election for an Iowa State Senate seat, in an eastern pocket of the state that had gone for Mr. Trump by 21 points in November. A longtime educator, Mr. Zimmer spent January introducing himself to voters via phone banking, social media videos, podcasts, postcards, media interviews and relentless canvassing. In a month’s time, Team Zimmer knocked on more than 7,700 doors.
“I am not going to sit here and talk about, ‘Oh, at every doorstep we knocked, everyone’s having policy conversations,’” Mr. Zimmer said with a chuckle in a recent phone interview. “They were like, ‘I saw you on the television, I’ve gotten three of your fliers, and oh, by the way, you’re letting $20 worth of heat out the door.’”
Nevertheless, he persisted. And, defying the odds, he won, flipping a Republican seat and beating his opponent by around four points. He was just sworn in to the Iowa Senate.
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After the electoral thumping the Democrats suffered in November, it will take more than a down-ballot upset here and there for the party to regain its mojo. But this is how the rebuilding starts. The wounded party begins clawing back voters and territory, often in unglamorous contests.
Practically speaking, it can be easier to win these one-off contests, far from the presidential scrum. The Democrats can test-drive messages and candidates mostly under the radar of the national Republican Party (and political media). The candidate can focus on bread-and-butter issues with less risk of getting swept into the polarized chaos of the national scene. This happened for Democrats with special elections in 2017, after Mr. Trump’s team dominated the 2016 cycle. And Mr. Zimmer’s unexpected success has some in his party dreaming of a similar surge this year. In recent weeks, his campaign team has been fielding calls from Democratic strategists and players far beyond Iowa, all eager to know how the campaign did what it did and which elements could be exported to other places and races.
It goes without saying — but let’s say it anyway — that candidate quality matters. And “you couldn’t use a computer to generate a better candidate” for his district than Mr. Zimmer, said Tyler Redenbaugh, the executive director of the Iowa Senate Majority fund and the chief architect of the Zimmer campaign. The candidate grew up in the area and after college worked as an educator in schools all across the district. His campaign motto was no frills — “Iowa raised, Iowa values: hard work and fairness.” And his focus was on kitchen-table issues like lowering costs, raising wages and improving public schools.

 
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