If Vice President Kamala Harris wins in November, election officials and experts worry that former president Donald Trump and his supporters will not accept that outcome — and could again try to overturn his loss.
In 2020, Trump refused to acknowledge his loss, spread false claims about widespread fraudulent voting, sought to reverse the results in swing states and tried to pressure Vice President Mike Pence to help him stay in power as rioters raided the U.S. Capitol. Many of those strategies can’t be used again because Trump no longer occupies the White House, and state and federal officials have since tightened election laws and policies to make it harder to undermine the will of voters.
But vulnerabilities persist. The risks this year will depend on the particulars of the election — and the closeness of the results. Many election officials and experts are worried false narratives could again take off, eroding public trust and leading to chaos, confusion and, in a worst-case scenario, violence. David Becker, the executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, said that those who oversee elections in key states are once again bracing to be harassed and threatened for doing their jobs.
“This is not a hypothetical,” he said. “This is not fearmongering. This is what happened in 2020 and since, on a widespread scale.”
Trump has not committed to accepting the outcome of the upcoming election, no matter who wins, and he has already claimed without evidence that Democrats will cheat. He has also threatened to jail election officials and others “involved in unscrupulous behavior” related to voting.
Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt in a statement did not directly answer whether Trump would honor the outcome as determined by election officials, saying only that he would “accept the results of a free and fair election.”
Here are some of the vulnerabilities that experts are most worried about:
Follow Election 2024
Trump has a long history of blaming his electoral shortcomings on nonexistent voter fraud. In 2020, Trump falsely claimed victory on election night, even though full results weren’t known for days. He could do the same this year — and now misinformation and disinformation can spread even faster because of sophisticated artificial intelligence-generated content and a hands-off approach from social media platforms.
After Trump lost Wisconsin in 2020, he used a recount to try to throw out hundreds of thousands of ballots. The state Supreme Court rejected his arguments in a 4-3 decision. A fight in 2024 could again come down to one or more state high courts, including in battlegrounds like North Carolina and Arizona, where conservatives control the courts.
“We also don’t know how the threat landscape will morph,” said Norm Eisen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who served as special counsel to the House Judiciary Committee for Trump’s first impeachment. “The way the litigation landscape looks [weeks before the election] is almost never the way it looks in November.”
In 2020, Trump refused to acknowledge his loss, spread false claims about widespread fraudulent voting, sought to reverse the results in swing states and tried to pressure Vice President Mike Pence to help him stay in power as rioters raided the U.S. Capitol. Many of those strategies can’t be used again because Trump no longer occupies the White House, and state and federal officials have since tightened election laws and policies to make it harder to undermine the will of voters.
But vulnerabilities persist. The risks this year will depend on the particulars of the election — and the closeness of the results. Many election officials and experts are worried false narratives could again take off, eroding public trust and leading to chaos, confusion and, in a worst-case scenario, violence. David Becker, the executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, said that those who oversee elections in key states are once again bracing to be harassed and threatened for doing their jobs.
“This is not a hypothetical,” he said. “This is not fearmongering. This is what happened in 2020 and since, on a widespread scale.”
Trump has not committed to accepting the outcome of the upcoming election, no matter who wins, and he has already claimed without evidence that Democrats will cheat. He has also threatened to jail election officials and others “involved in unscrupulous behavior” related to voting.
Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt in a statement did not directly answer whether Trump would honor the outcome as determined by election officials, saying only that he would “accept the results of a free and fair election.”
Here are some of the vulnerabilities that experts are most worried about:
Widespread false information
It could again take several days to declare a winner, as some swing states like Pennsylvania and Arizona take longer than others to count votes. As the public waits for results, false narratives could quickly spread.Follow Election 2024
Trump has a long history of blaming his electoral shortcomings on nonexistent voter fraud. In 2020, Trump falsely claimed victory on election night, even though full results weren’t known for days. He could do the same this year — and now misinformation and disinformation can spread even faster because of sophisticated artificial intelligence-generated content and a hands-off approach from social media platforms.
Weeks-long recounts
Recounts are likely to spring up if the results are close, and they could last for weeks, particularly if they get bogged down in lawsuits over whether officials followed proper procedures.After Trump lost Wisconsin in 2020, he used a recount to try to throw out hundreds of thousands of ballots. The state Supreme Court rejected his arguments in a 4-3 decision. A fight in 2024 could again come down to one or more state high courts, including in battlegrounds like North Carolina and Arizona, where conservatives control the courts.
“We also don’t know how the threat landscape will morph,” said Norm Eisen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who served as special counsel to the House Judiciary Committee for Trump’s first impeachment. “The way the litigation landscape looks [weeks before the election] is almost never the way it looks in November.”