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How will 2019-20 be different than 18-19

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Buddehawk

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Jan 19, 2016
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Where will the dropoff be.

I think there will be a little drop in Athletic ability - TC & Moss were very athletic - I don't think we saw as much on display as we should have though..

I think we will be physically and mentally tougher. I don't think we win the ISU game without Pemsl, he played tough and didn't back down. Joe and Luka will get more physical and have an edge to them. Sounds like Jack matured into his frame.

Shooting shouldn't drop off much if any - Baer and Moss were streaking, Moss just wouldn't shoot at times - TC was inside 10 ft - Pemsl has better post moves if healthy. Adding a strech 4 and another good shooter at the 2. Have a feeling CMac will develop a reliable shot. TC and Baer were our lowest FT% guys. Have some guys like Joe T & PMac where we will have to wait to see exactly what they can provide

Turnovers should drop - hopefully 8-10 for the game, I think TC average around 3/game. Don't see the stretches where we would turn the ball over 5 or 6 times in 10 possessions

Defense should get better if Fran put a little more emphasis on it. Defense keeps you in the game when you have the scoring droughts. We had too many times where we allowed 10-0 or 12-4 runs and being behind by 6 turned onto 18 in the matter of a minute or two and the game was over for the most part. Good defense helps you weather the storm.

Not expecting to be better but not seeing a huge drop off

Expect we would lose a couple preseason games and flirt with around .500 record in the B10 with chance for NCAA
 
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Suterman said:
I will be surprised and disappointed if we don't make the tournament. I think our record will be very similar to last year.
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I agree - I think a little less athletic but more fundamentally sound and consistent next year.

My expectation is upper division finish in B10 and NCAA berth every year.

Advance to 2nd round at least half those years - that would mean you are in that top 30-34 in the country range

Advance to the Sweet sixteen 30-50% of the time when we make it to top 32.

After that I would hope to go a little further every once in a while
 
I think the Hawks will miss Baer the most. The guy seemed to be in the right place a lot, made big buckets, made key blocks, got key rebounds.

I think the talent on the floor will be very similar to last year, unless wildcards CJ or Jack really surprise us all, either by being stars or are just not that good.

I think we are going to be pretty pleased with the 19/20 Hawks!
 
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Not that some of what is being said is or is not true- but pretty stereotypical responses thus far. TC was an athletic freak-no argument there but if Moss was super athletic he didn't always use it and I thought Jo W and Baer were more athletic than Moss.
 
HocDawk said:
Less dunks
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BjUj.gif
 
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Buddehawk said:
Where will the dropoff be.

I think there will be a little drop in Athletic ability - TC & Moss were very athletic - I don't think we saw as much on display as we should have though..

I think we will be physically and mentally tougher. I don't think we win the ISU game without Pemsl, he played tough and didn't back down. Joe and Luka will get more physical and have an edge to them. Sounds like Jack matured into his frame.

Shooting shouldn't drop off much if any - Baer and Moss were streaking, Moss just wouldn't shoot at times - TC was inside 10 ft - Pemsl has better post moves if healthy. Adding a strech 4 and another good shooter at the 2. Have a feeling CMac will develop a reliable shot. TC and Baer were our lowest FT% guys. Have some guys like Joe T & PMac where we will have to wait to see exactly what they can provide

Turnovers should drop - hopefully 8-10 for the game, I think TC average around 3/game. Don't see the stretches where we would turn the ball over 5 or 6 times in 10 possessions

Defense should get better if Fran put a little more emphasis on it. Defense keeps you in the game when you have the scoring droughts. We had too many times where we allowed 10-0 or 12-4 runs and being behind by 6 turned onto 18 in the matter of a minute or two and the game was over for the most part. Good defense helps you weather the storm.

Not expecting to be better but not seeing a huge drop off

Expect we would lose a couple preseason games and flirt with around .500 record in the B10 with chance for NCAA
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Some good points here....We "could" be physically and mentally tougher....I think the front line players in particular; Cordell-Ryan and hopefully Jack will bring that with the added minutes. That's an area where I think they could replace and exceed Cook's production , just not the athleticism.

My guess....is defense on the perimeter isn't any worse and may be better with continued maturity of the returning players and hopefully the freshman...but I am not counting on the freshman just because I think it's best to wait and see.

Turnovers should drop....after Joe T gets a chance to get settled in.

Joe W should take it up a notch...with the understanding that B10 teams in particular will start to give him more attention....that's where we have to have both JBO and Garza be the offensive threats that they should be based on history.

These are the key issues to me for a step forward this next season: Solid play at both PF & 2G, reduced turnovers, improved defense.....and no significant injuries = as good or better than last year. That's my wild guess....can't wait to see.
 
Patrick McCaffery and Joe T are going to make a significant difference on this team. Defense and athleticism at key positions.
 
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If CJ and Joe T can offset the loss of Moss I expect to be pretty similar to last year. I doubt we have the luxury to redshirt Patrick and I hope he can fill part of the Baer role. Inside there are a number of things Cook brought that will be missed, but we are bringing back some experience with Cordell and Nunge. The unknown IMO is how much of Garza’s production was due to teams paying attention to Cook. I expect Ryan to continue to make strides. There will be a lot of different faces on the floor this year, but the team is likely to be on a par with last years group. With a more difficult schedule the results may not show it.

This year will likely boil down to effort. At times ly we had spurts of going through the motions instead of busting butts on D and the defensive boards. If we correct that I could see us making the tournament again.
 
Phenomenally Frantastic said:
Huh? Why?

wins some meaningless games, get blown out in others, win a couple games in NIT, coin flip on a Fran suspension, whoopdeedoodah, typical year.
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Not sure why I am even replying to you. But we have been to the NCAA Tournament 4 of the last 6 years. Not many teams can say that.

I only have two issues with Fran. One, he should have more talent on the roster. Not with the current players, but more of them. We have 5 potential scholarships to give for 2019-2020. Fran KNEW at least two players were going to be gone, and a non-betting man would have had another. We ended up with four leaving or running out of eligibility. That is bad management, IMHO. Especially when you have a backup plan if you happen to over recruit - your own kids.

Two, he should have pounded defense into these guys a couple of years ago. Better late than never, I guess.

We will be an NCAA team again next year. With an extra loss or two. But a much higher SOS, will get us in.
 
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hawkeyeguy69 said:
Not sure why I am even replying to you. But we have been to the NCAA Tournament 4 of the last 6 years. Not many teams can say that.

I only have two issues with Fran. One, he should have more talent on the roster. Not with the current players, but more of them. We have 5 potential scholarships to give for 2019-2020. Fran KNEW at least two players were going to be gone, and a non-betting man would have had another. We ended up with four leaving or running out of eligibility. That is bad management, IMHO. Especially when you have a backup plan if you happen to over recruit - your own kids.

Two, he should have pounded defense into these guys a couple of years ago. Better late than never, I guess.

We will be an NCAA team again next year. With an extra loss or two. But a much higher SOS, will get us in.
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This is a very fair assessment, agree on all points. IMHO, Fran is at a point where his seat should be pretty hot if we miss the NCAA tourney this coming year. If our 2020 recruiting class underwhelms, he could be in serious deep shit. That said, if we can improve on this season, make the tourney again and get 2-3 of the top 100 guys he is targeting in 2020, we could be sitting in a very good spot.
 
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Buddehawk said:
Turnovers should drop - hopefully 8-10 for the game, I think TC average around 3/game. Don't see the stretches where we would turn the ball over 5 or 6 times in 10 possessions
Click to expand...

Virginia ranked #1 in the country in fewest turnovers per game last year with 8.6 per game.

Iowa ranked 216 with 13.4 turnovers per game.

Given the pace of play under Fran, we are never going to get down to less than 10 turnovers per game. I do think 11-12 turnovers per game is achievable though.
 
icantfindausernamethatisntused said:
Virginia ranked #1 in the country in fewest turnovers per game last year with 8.6 per game.

Iowa ranked 216 with 13.4 turnovers per game.

Given the pace of play under Fran, we are never going to get down to less than 10 turnovers per game. I do think 11-12 turnovers per game is achievable though.
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If Iowa averaged 13+ TO's per game, I swear that 5 of them were of the "bone headed" variety - trying to make a pass into the post that just wasn't there, or passing the ball to the PG at the top of the key only to have it stolen. Last year was better than 17-18 (which was almost comical), but improvement is there to be made.

Also, I'm starting to believe that Fran's "up tempo" style is becoming more myth than reality, kinda like Hayden's Riverboat gambler image. Do they keep a stat on average time per possession? I think that would be interesting. I think one of the reasons Iowa scores a lot is because the defense allows the other team good shot opportunities quickly, meaning they get the ball back faster.

For example, I see Virginia averaged 54 shots per game - the Hawks 57. Of course, VA got 5 more shots than the Hawks every game by not turning the ball over so much.
 
jasonrann said:
This is a very fair assessment, agree on all points. IMHO, Fran is at a point where his seat should be pretty hot if we miss the NCAA tourney this coming year. If our 2020 recruiting class underwhelms, he could be in serious deep shit. That said, if we can improve on this season, make the tourney again and get 2-3 of the top 100 guys he is targeting in 2020, we could be sitting in a very good spot.
Click to expand...

If we miss the tourney that would not be good with the fanbase at all... But his seat will not be hot unless we miss the tourney the next two years. I do not see that happening. I think we will be in the tournament EVERY year that Connor & Patrick are on the team. Not necessarily because of them. But because of what Fran has built.

Hopefully Fran snags a few good recruits! And I hope he has some backups already on the line... If he gets ONE top 100 guy, I would be very happy. If he lands TWO top 100 guys, we will be making a run at the Final Four. I'll personally guarantee that. ;)
 
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Hawk_4shur said:
If Iowa averaged 13+ TO's per game, I swear that 5 of them were of the "bone headed" variety - trying to make a pass into the post that just wasn't there, or passing the ball to the PG at the top of the key only to have it stolen. Last year was better than 17-18 (which was almost comical), but improvement is there to be made.

Also, I'm starting to believe that Fran's "up tempo" style is becoming more myth than reality, kinda like Hayden's Riverboat gambler image. Do they keep a stat on average time per possession? I think that would be interesting. I think one of the reasons Iowa scores a lot is because the defense allows the other team good shot opportunities quickly, meaning they get the ball back faster.

For example, I see Virginia averaged 54 shots per game - the Hawks 57. Of course, VA got 5 more shots than the Hawks every game by not turning the ball over so much.
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We definitely averaged too many turnovers per game. That should go down. It is one of the reasons I think we will be as competitive as we were this last season. That and our defense will be better. I hope...

As for up tempo, we were 41st in the country in scoring. That is in the top 12% in the country. One would call that up tempo.
 
hawkeyeguy69 said:
As for up tempo, we were 41st in the country in scoring. That is in the top 12% in the country. One would call that up tempo.
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Well, it's "high scoring" for sure. Iowa shoots and makes a lot of FT's - clock is stopped. Iowa shoots and makes quite a few 3's.

Not arguing here, since I am sort of facts. But watching Iowa, it doesn't seem to me that they are "up tempo" - it seems they play at about the same pace as most of their opponents.
 
Hawk_4shur said:
If Iowa averaged 13+ TO's per game, I swear that 5 of them were of the "bone headed" variety - trying to make a pass into the post that just wasn't there, or passing the ball to the PG at the top of the key only to have it stolen. Last year was better than 17-18 (which was almost comical), but improvement is there to be made.

Also, I'm starting to believe that Fran's "up tempo" style is becoming more myth than reality, kinda like Hayden's Riverboat gambler image. Do they keep a stat on average time per possession? I think that would be interesting. I think one of the reasons Iowa scores a lot is because the defense allows the other team good shot opportunities quickly, meaning they get the ball back faster.

For example, I see Virginia averaged 54 shots per game - the Hawks 57. Of course, VA got 5 more shots than the Hawks every game by not turning the ball over so much.
Click to expand...


Iowa ranked 84th last year in adjusted tempo, which ranked 2nd in the Big 10.
 
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Hawk_4shur said:
Well, it's "high scoring" for sure. Iowa shoots and makes a lot of FT's - clock is stopped. Iowa shoots and makes quite a few 3's.

Not arguing here, since I am sort of facts. But watching Iowa, it doesn't seem to me that they are "up tempo" - it seems they play at about the same pace as most of their opponents.
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Good point. I hope that a lot of those shots start to fall. Especially CMac. Joe W as well. It seems Garza is the best at finishing, in regards to making the shot. But I could be off on that.
 
hawkeyeguy69 said:
Not sure why I am even replying to you. But we have been to the NCAA Tournament 4 of the last 6 years. Not many teams can say that.

I only have two issues with Fran. One, he should have more talent on the roster. Not with the current players, but more of them. We have 5 potential scholarships to give for 2019-2020. Fran KNEW at least two players were going to be gone, and a non-betting man would have had another. We ended up with four leaving or running out of eligibility. That is bad management, IMHO. Especially when you have a backup plan if you happen to over recruit - your own kids.

Two, he should have pounded defense into these guys a couple of years ago. Better late than never, I guess.

We will be an NCAA team again next year. With an extra loss or two. But a much higher SOS, will get us in.
Click to expand...

Doing what you just described is how we end up with the Williams and Daileys of the world
 
L. Wade Childress said:
Not even close. Iowa identified and signed white early. You are talking about late signees who are almost always overvalued.
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Wrong. I mentioned and have repeated stated the exact opposite. It is a downfall of Fran's - he has to start targeting these backups early, and not blow everything on top tier recruits, and then missing out...

Fran has (had) the two extra scholarships in his kids. Pickup some decent players now, and keep them tight. If he lands a big fish great. They won't shy from competition... If he misses out, then his kids keep the scholly.
Fran should have done this the last two years...

No spring/late signees unless there is a hidden gem, decommit or a transfer.
 
We really need Nunge to have taken a big step forward during his redshirt year, and CJF to give us some quality minutes. If JoeT is able to provide a big contribution at PG, we could see dramatic improvement of our guard play. Those are pretty big ifs. The biggest improvements we need to see from the returning players is for Luka to be a much better position defender and for CMac to be a more confident outside shooter. Either of those would really help. Pemsl and Kriener need to become the energy boost that we got from Baer, although neither can give us the floor game he provided. The team needs to play better team defense, and as noted, minimize bonehead turnovers. Anything that PMac provides will be a bonus. Of course, we need the key players, especially JoeW, to stay healthy.

I don't like making predictions, but I am hoping for a similar overall record as the past year without the dismal performances we saw in a lot of the losses.
 
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