Hurricane season has arrived....

runkpanole

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Nov 17, 2002
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The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
110,199
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000
WTNT21 KNHC 022052
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022
2100 UTC THU JUN 02 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY AND FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...LA HABANA...
ARTEMISA...AND PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR..
* WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE
* FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 87.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 87.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.3N 87.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 24.8N 84.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.5N 82.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.7N 79.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.6N 76.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 33.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 36.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 87.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

NewVicHawkeye

HR All-State
Jul 19, 2021
566
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There were some pretty bad hurricanes when we lived down there around ‘05. We stayed and our area suffered fairly minimal damage. (some people evacuated) Just a few miles north, Palm Beach got hit hard IIRC.

Stay safe down there Trad and all HORT coastal dwellers!
 

runkpanole

HR Legend
Nov 17, 2002
14,558
23,279
113
There were some pretty bad hurricanes when we lived down there around ‘05. We stayed and our area suffered fairly minimal damage. (some people evacuated) Just a few miles north, Palm Beach got hit hard IIRC.

Stay safe down there Trad and all HORT coastal dwellers!
04 and 05 were very bad hurricane years for Florida. Eight total landfalls.
 
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The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
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We dealt with effects from Frances and Jeanne. Got a new roof after that.

The next year, Wilma blew through (I stood in the eye for that one) and everybody else in the neighborhood got a new roof.
 
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An Iowa fan

HR MVP
Dec 12, 2019
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I am safe as I am in Iowa presently. I am just keeping track of what is happening in Marco through the media and friends there.
 
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The Tradition

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Apr 23, 2002
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I don't think I've ever seen spaghetti models so tightly clustered so far out in time....

91L_tracks_latest.png
 

paednoch23

HR MVP
Oct 23, 2009
1,164
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An area of disturbed weather that AccuWeather meteorologists were closely scrutinizing all week over the waters south of Mexico became the first named storm of the 2022 East Pacific hurricane season -- Agatha -- early Saturday morning. Although Agatha is a small tropical storm, forecasters expect the storm to strengthen to a hurricane as it turns toward the Mexican coast into early week.

Within six hours of being designated Tropical Depression One-E by the National Hurricane Center late Friday, Tropical Storm Agatha formed early Saturday morning amid a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the East Pacific. Winds within the center of the storm stood at 50 mph (85 km/h) at 1 p.m. CDT Saturday, up from 40 mph (64 km/h) during the morning hours.

Forecasters say the system will remain in an environment conducive for continued strengthening up until it moves onshore in Mexico. By Sunday night, Agatha is forecast to reach Category 1 hurricane strength (maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph, or 119-153 km/h).

Sea-surface temperatures in the area are more than sufficient for continued strengthening, and as of Saturday, the ocean water in this part of the Pacific Ocean was around 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). At a minimum, a sea-surface temperature of 79-80 F (26-27 C) is needed for the formation and maintenance of tropical systems. In addition, wind shear in the area is very light across this part of the basin, which will also contribute to the strengthening of the storm.

AccuWeather meteorologists will be closely monitoring the leftover energy from Agatha as it crosses Mexico and enters the Bay of Campeche during the first days of June. Here, it could redevelop into the Atlantic basin's first named storm.


Don't give a shit. You chose to live there. Your problem. Couldn't care less if you got wiped off the map
 

JMSBFD

HR All-State
Nov 27, 2021
693
600
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So an average spring wind in iowa. Plus Frankie hasn't issued an alert yet so this is obviously overblown. Trad, do better my man. Give me some tomato updates.

I thought my Carolina reaper seeds from last year didn't survive in the fridge. Finally 3 months after I put them in starter pots inside they are coming up. My persimmon are sprouting too.
 
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The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
110,199
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So an average spring wind in iowa. Plus Frankie hasn't issued an alert yet so this is obviously overblown. Trad, do better my man. Give me some tomato updates.

I thought my Carolina reaper seeds from last year didn't survive in the fridge. Finally 3 months after I put them in starter pots inside they are coming up. My persimmon are sprouting too.

FLguXs6.jpg
 

The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
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The National Hurricane Center issued tropical storm watches for much of Florida, including parts of Central Florida, on Thursday evening for the first potential storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One has formed near the Yucatan Peninsula, according to the National Hurricane Center. It's predicted to strengthen into a tropical storm before reaching the Florida peninsula on Saturday.

All signs point to a lot of rain across our southern areas with gusty winds to potentially tropical storm strength.

In the latest 8 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center said the likelihood that the system will form into either a depression or tropical storm over the next 48 hours remains at 90%.

The potential tropical system is also becoming more defined as we head into Thursday evening, according to the NHC advisory.

The impacts of the potential tropical cyclone appear to be greatest in Osceola, Brevard and Polk counties as advisories were issued there.

furxwvkwyauaiyj-1654205703.jpg


WESH 2 meteorologists have designated Saturday a First Warning Weather Day because these storm impacts are likely to impact you and your family.

Forecasters expect Potential Tropical Cyclone One to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.

The latest models show the system tracking a slightly further south and with more intensity.


 

BlIIlken2

HR All-State
Nov 23, 2021
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Airlines will fly into this stuff. This is nothing more than spring/fall Iowa weather.
 

The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
110,199
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Airlines will fly into this stuff. This is nothing more than spring/fall Iowa weather.

Wilma was barely a Cat 1 storm until 12 hours before landfall.

It ended up being a borderline Cat 3/4 when it crossed over my house.

It's still too far away to declare this a "nothing" storm....
 

The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
110,199
82,856
113
000
WTNT31 KNHC 030246
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS,
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 87.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for all of the Florida
Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, and for the west
coast of Florida south of Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida south of Englewood to Card Sound Bridge

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for..
* West coast of Florida from south of the Middle of Longboat Key to
Englewood
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
 

PoopandBoogers

HR All-American
Mar 29, 2002
3,796
6,268
113
I don't think I've ever seen spaghetti models so tightly clustered so far out in time....

91L_tracks_latest.png
The red and gray lines have it coming directly over me on the east coast. If it's anything like the last TS we had, I'll be sitting in the back yard with the neighbor, cocktails in hand, looking around wanting a little bit more excitement than what we had.

where-shrug.gif
 

BelemNole

HR Legend
Mar 29, 2002
31,468
65,091
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I know the authorities tell you to get water, cash, gas, non perishable food, but first things first. Make sure the bar is stocked.
When we lived in Taiwan my folks used to throw Typhoon parties. Although that was usually for the smaller ones. A few of the larger ones took out some houses.
 
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An Iowa fan

HR MVP
Dec 12, 2019
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Looks like southern and southwest Collier County has had the most rain. So far the winds are staying under 30 mph. Will get stronger.
Not sure on how much rain in Naples. Isles of Capri has had about 5 inches. Marco Island has had a little less than 6 inches. They are expecting to double that amount.
 

PoopandBoogers

HR All-American
Mar 29, 2002
3,796
6,268
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Looks like southern and southwest Collier County has had the most rain. So far the winds are staying under 30 mph. Will get stronger.
Not sure on how much rain in Naples. Isles of Capri has had about 5 inches. Marco Island has had a little less than 6 inches. They are expecting to double that amount.
Good, we can use it. Hopefully it just a rainmaker. One positive is that is has brought the temps down 10-15 degrees, it's a cool and breezy 75. Im not complaining.
 

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