If I am reading this correctly, it largely hinges on PA?

[l.todd]

So, my wife was reading this to me this morning, and I must say, it seems to be somewhat dismaying. It is Nate Silver's latest column:

Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?

Michigan and Wisconsin have been the focus of a lot of attention from nervous Democrats for the past four years, in part because Hillary Clinton spent relativel…

fivethirtyeight.com

But what got my attention was this paragraph:

"No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016."

I would take this to mean that if Biden wins PA, his chances of winning the EC overall are 98%, nearly insurmountable. But if Trump wins PA, his chances of winning overall are 70%. So Trump's chances of winning jump 35X higher if he takes Pennsylvania. And a lot of pollsters see PA as tightening up and the current looting and riots in Philly possibly helping Trump.

Kind of mind-blowing. In spite of everything, this seems to indicate he has a much better chance than many of us would give him.

 

[strummingram]

Biden will lose in PAand Trump is going to be reelected. As much as it pains me to accept, admit, and face that... I believe Trump will win his reelection.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

So, my wife was reading this to me this morning, and I must say, it seems to be somewhat dismaying. It is Nate Silver's latest column:

Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?

Michigan and Wisconsin have been the focus of a lot of attention from nervous Democrats for the past four years, in part because Hillary Clinton spent relativel…

fivethirtyeight.com

But what got my attention was this paragraph:

"No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016."

I would take this to mean that if Biden wins PA, his chances of winning the EC overall are 98%, nearly insurmountable. But if Trump wins PA, his chances of winning overall are 70%. So Trump's chances of winning jump 35X higher if he takes Pennsylvania. And a lot of pollsters see PA as tightening up and the current looting and riots in Philly possibly helping Trump.

Kind of mind-blowing. In spite of everything, this seems to indicate he has a much better chance than many of us would give him.

His current overall chances sit at I think 12% according to 538. Not great but that is slightly better than a 1 in 10 shot. 1 in 10 odds are not impossible.

PA is probably not that close. Insider advantage which is one of the least accurate polling firms gives Trump a 2 point lead and Trafalgar group which is heavily biased towards Trump, always has been says it's a tie.

Reuders, Civq's and University of Wisconsin in the same time period give Biden 5% leads or more.

 

[Huey Grey]

It will mainly hinge on Barrett joining the Trump Four to hand the election in court. PA is but one small vehicle to mount this challenge.

 

[MitchLL]

Pennsylvania might end up insignificant if Trump doesn't sweep FL/NC/GA. Every single battleground State has to go for Trump for Trump to win. That's highly unlikely.

 

[hawkeyeandy]

So, my wife was reading this to me this morning, and I must say, it seems to be somewhat dismaying. It is Nate Silver's latest column:

Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?

Michigan and Wisconsin have been the focus of a lot of attention from nervous Democrats for the past four years, in part because Hillary Clinton spent relativel…

fivethirtyeight.com

But what got my attention was this paragraph:

"No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016."

I would take this to mean that if Biden wins PA, his chances of winning the EC overall are 98%, nearly insurmountable. But if Trump wins PA, his chances of winning overall are 70%. So Trump's chances of winning jump 35X higher if he takes Pennsylvania. And a lot of pollsters see PA as tightening up and the current looting and riots in Philly possibly helping Trump.

Kind of mind-blowing. In spite of everything, this seems to indicate he has a much better chance than many of us would give him.

Biden really needs to blitz PA with a clear message on his fracking stance. That's what ultimately will kill his chances in this state unless he clearly, unequivocally, forcefully and quickly makes it known that he will not ban fracking. Trump and the super PACs are pummeling him over his waffling on this issue.

 

[Brok85]

Biden has about 50% chance to win Florida. Pennsylvania won’t matter if Biden wins Florida.

 

[Menace Sockeyes]

If I’m Biden, I’m hitting Florida, Georgia, and Texas hard this week, and ending with two days of three campaign stops each day in Pennsylvania. Day one in Pittsburgh, Happy Valley, Harrisburg. Day two in Philly, Philly suburbs, and Scranton as his final stop to bring it home full circle. Then again, I don’t have the same data that the campaign does.

 

[Bonerfarts]

No, if Joe loses Pennsylvania then he must win the 3 northern swing states and Arizona and Nebraska's 1 vote. This is a bit of a nightmare scenario though, Dems really need to win in a larger margin or Trump will try to have the courts decide it.

 

[l.todd]

No, if Joe loses Pennsylvania then he must win the 3 northern swing states and Arizona. This is a bit of a nightmare scenario though, Dems really need to win in a larger margin or Trump will try to have the courts decide it.

That makes things look really close. I fear the Bradley effect. People being embarrassed to tell pollsters they are Trump voters, moving the needle his way.

 

[Bonerfarts]

That makes things look really close. I fear the Bradley effect. People being embarrassed to tell pollsters they are Trump voters, moving the needle his way.

This race is closer than most people realize. Forget national polls showing 8-9 Biden lead, national polls are worthless since they are irrelevant. These swing states are tight and could go either way. I could also see Joe flipping a few southern states and it looks like a complete blowout. Mentally I'm expecting a Trump victory Tuesday, but hoping I'm wrong.

 

[MWardT]

Biden has about 50% chance to win Florida. Pennsylvania won’t matter if Biden wins Florida.

I think Trump has to win both Florida and PA to have a chance.

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

There is no doubt in my mind that Biden will receive a hell of a lot more votes in Pennsylvania than Trump will. The only question is how many of those votes will the Trumpsters be able to invalidate. The only way Trump wins PA is if the decision goes to the State legislature and the Courts, and Trump will do everything he can to make sure that happens. It is truly a shameful situation.

 

[JRHawk2003]

If Trump wins, lots of death coming.....lots

 

[TrianglePlace]

PA is huge. Here is Silver's interactive map. If you dont touch any other parts of the map and give PA to Trump, he goes from a 11% chance of winning to a 67% favorite to win the election.

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Bonerfarts]

PA is huge. Here is Silver's interactive map. If you dont touch any other parts of the map and give PA to Trump, he goes from a 11% chance of winning to a 67% favorite to win the election.

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Thanks that's a fun map. Just flipping Iowa give Biden a 98% chance to win.

 

[TrianglePlace]

Thanks that's a fun map. Just flipping Iowa give Biden a 98% chance to win.

I play around with that all the time. I like it because if you give PA to a candidate, it impacts the odds in states that are similar to PA like OH, WI or IA.

Thinking of states that may get called earlier than some of the Midwest swing states, if Biden is declared the winner in FL or NC on Election Night...turn out the lights, the party's over.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

Thanks that's a fun map. Just flipping Iowa give Biden a 98% chance to win.

It makes sense, if Biden wins Iowa than that means things have gone pretty badly for Trump.

It's insanely unlikely for example that Biden wins Iowa but Trump wins PA or Wisconsin.

 

[stanzithemanzi12]

Biden has about 50% chance to win Florida. Pennsylvania won’t matter if Biden wins Florida.

Biden's not winning Florida.

 

[lucas80]

Biden can win without PA. He has far more pathways to victory than Trump does.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

Biden will lose in PAand Trump is going to be reelected. As much as it pains me to accept, admit, and face that... I believe Trump will win his reelection.

C'mon, have a little faith.

 

[Hoosierhawkeye]

Biden can win without PA. He has far more pathways to victory than Trump does.

He can but losing PA would be a bad blow and a sign that he's not performing up to poll numbers.

 

[JRHawk2003]

If Trump wins get ready for lots and lot of instability. I wont ever swear an oath to the US Constitution again

C'mon, have a little faith.

Its very hard to. I have little faith in America.

 

[SoDakHawk]

Biden really needs to blitz PA with a clear message on his fracking stance. That's what ultimately will kill his chances in this state unless he clearly, unequivocally, forcefully and quickly makes it known that he will not ban fracking. Trump and the super PACs are pummeling him over his waffling on this issue.

Biden made it pretty clear at the end of the last debate he was going to end the oil industry. He couldn't have been any more clear. That's why he will lose oil producing states.

What you're saying is he needs to lie again, not give a "clear message" because he already did give us a clear message.

 

[HotelAlphaWilcoKilo]

If Trump wins, lots of death coming.....lots

You talkin' pogroms, Kreskin?

 

[Brok85]

Biden's not winning Florida.

opinions are like a$$holes

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

Biden made it pretty clear at the end of the last debate he was going to end the oil industry. He couldn't have been any more clear. That's why he will lose oil producing states.

What you're saying is he needs to lie again, not give a "clear message" because he already did give us a clear message.

Time will tell. I'm hopeful. If not, life goes on.

 

[sober_teacher]

Pennsylvania might end up insignificant if Trump doesn't sweep FL/NC/GA. Every single battleground State has to go for Trump for Trump to win. That's highly unlikely.

Agreed. The problem for Trump is that in nearly every state that falls into the toss-up category - meaning the polling averages are within the margin of error for each, either have Biden with the narrow lead or it's effectively a toss-up. In almost no state that is a toss-up at the moment is Trump winning by much more than 1% based on polling averages.

Again, he can still win, but he really has to run the table almost. Even PA, which has tightened, still has Biden with a 4-5% lead.

 

[HotelAlphaWilcoKilo]

opinions are like a$$holes

 

[strummingram]

C'mon, have a little faith.

I'm just telling you what I believe. Donald Trump doesn't compute in polls. And, riots in Philly ain't helping!

 

[BeepBeepInMyJeep]

He can but losing PA would be a bad blow and a sign that he's not performing up to poll numbers.

Exactly, especially if it's a systematic polling issue with the midwest, because then means he underperforms WI and MI too, to the point where they all get tied up in Kangaroo Court. I think Dems see the urgency here of this idea of "we have to win big" and taking nothing for granted. On the other hand, huge turnout all over could just really distort things. And if we look at the 85:15 in PA and call it too close to call, then we'd have to say Montana at 85:15 is the same.

In general I think pollsters have worked really hard to err things on the side of Trump. If polls say Biden +8 and it's Biden +3 with Trump winning the EC, then "the polls were completely wrong" but if it ends up being Biden +13, then "the polls were right".

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

I'm just telling you what I believe. Donald Trump doesn't compute in polls. And, riots in Philly ain't helping!

I understand why you're spooked. I really believe this time around there are a lot of silent Biden supporters. Plus, a lot of pollsters are probably overcompensating for Trump because of 2016.

We'll see. I just think this is a lot different than 2016. One, Joe Biden isn't polarizing like Hillary. Two, I'm guessing a lot of the indifferent libs who stayed home in 2016, assuming Hillary had it in the bag, will vote this time around. And third, he's lost a lot of women.

 

[strummingram]

I understand why you're spooked. I really believe this time around there are a lot of silent Biden supporters. Plus, a lot of pollsters are probably overcompensating for Trump because of 2016.

We'll see. I just think this is a lot different than 2016. One, Joe Biden isn't polarizing like Hillary. Two, I'm guessing a lot of the indifferent libs who stayed home in 2016, assuming Hillary had it in the bag, will vote this time around. And third, he's lost a lot of women.

I think there are a whole lot more"silent Trump voters."

I get what you're saying. And, I have watched, literally DOZENS, of You Tube channels and videos from LetsTalkElections, 538, tons of them, all explaining how "this year it is different." There are all similar reasons like you stated. I simply do not trust them. I don't know that he has lost women, or the elderly or anyone else. Trump has A LOT of support. I hope and pray that I am wrong.

 

[INXS83]

If Trump wins get ready for lots and lot of instability. I wont ever swear an oath to the US Constitution again


Its very hard to. I have little faith in America.

Then leave.

 

[JRHawk2003]

Then leave.

No one wants Americans.

 

[franklinman]

The SCOTUS just ruled the state ,PA has 3 days to count the vote .Filthy Don and The cons lost their case.

 

[blhawk]

Biden made it pretty clear at the end of the last debate he was going to end the oil industry. He couldn't have been any more clear. That's why he will lose oil producing states.

What you're saying is he needs to lie again, not give a "clear message" because he already did give us a clear message.

He said transition from oil which will take decades but its already started....and end oil subsidies which is corporate wellfare you dumbass. I know righties love corporate and farmer wellfare but you can't suck off that government teat forever. At least that's what they tell the poors

 

[JJ13579]

I think Trump has to win both Florida and PA to have a chance.

I believe we need to add:

And NC, And GA, And TX, And AZ OR MI OR WI

He has to win a bunch of coin flip states. It's ****ing sick that this election boils down to states though. He's gonna get curb stomped nationally.

 

[artradley]

I think Trump has to win both Florida and PA to have a chance.

Yes. If they split those Biden us in pretty good shape.

As mentioned earlier, Trump has to take all of the very close states (IA, GA, NC, FL, AZ) and then grab one where Biden has a large lead like PA or WI.

But the wildcard is what states he manages to steal through the state legislatures and courts. We could see a total destruction of our democracy. Hell, the GOP’s plan is the destruction of democracy.

 

[ANYCHawk]

PA is huge. Here is Silver's interactive map. If you dont touch any other parts of the map and give PA to Trump, he goes from a 11% chance of winning to a 67% favorite to win the election.

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Well to be fair, the switch is not just because of PA. On that map if you switch PA, the map automatically gives trump iowa, georgia, flordia, etc. That is why the swing is so big