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Inflation going down…..maybe?

Interesting outcome today, that can be spun by either doom-casters or sunshine-shovers.

On the one hand, at least the continued upward trajectory has been stopped, and indeed, very slightly reversed.

On the other, it was still worse than expected and shows that the "fixes" to date have not done much to reverse the trend.
I think as with most things...it's somewhere in the middle.

It's not good...but could have been worse. I just think the US and world economy is in for some hurt in 2023. At least that seems to be the general consensus.
 
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Trajectory remains, rate has changed.

If you were going down the road at 83 mph and now you're going 82 mph you didn't stop, and you haven't reversed.

edited to add: Fed thinks we should be going 20 mph...
That is what's called decelerating, You can't hit reverse or 20mph without hitting 82 mph first.
 
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I think as with most things...it's somewhere in the middle.

It's not good...but could have been worse. I just think the US and world economy is in for some hurt in 2023. At least that seems to be the general consensus.
Agree. There is likely to be some type of recession, hopefully it will be mild and not involved mass job losses.

Cost me $19 to get 1 container of cranberry chicken salad and 1 container of spinach dip at Hy-Vee today. Damn.
 
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Agree. There is likely to be some type of recession, hopefully it will be mild and not involved mass job losses.

Cost me $19 to get 1 container of cranberry chicken salad and 1 container of spinach dip at Hy-Vee today. Damn.
AE French Onion with chips is basically crack.
 
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An economic gauge that the Federal Reserve follows closely showed that inflation stayed strong in September but mostly within expectations, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.5% from the previous month and accelerated 5.1% over the past 12 months, the report showed. The monthly gain was in line with Dow Jones estimates, while the annual increase was slightly below the 5.2% forecast.




Including food and energy, PCE inflation rose 0.3% for the month and 6.2% on a yearly basis, the same as in August.

The report comes as the Fed is prepared to enact its sixth interest rate increase of the year at its policy meeting next week. In an effort to combat inflation running at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years, the Fed has been raising rates, with increases totaling 3 percentage points thus far.

Markets widely expect the Fed to enact its fourth straight 0.75 percentage point increase at the meeting, but possibly slow down the pace of hikes after that.

The BEA also reported that personal income increased 0.4% in September, one-tenth of a percentage point above the estimate. Spending as gauged through personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6%, more than the 0.4% estimate.


 
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An economic gauge that the Federal Reserve follows closely showed that inflation stayed strong in September but mostly within expectations, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.5% from the previous month and accelerated 5.1% over the past 12 months, the report showed. The monthly gain was in line with Dow Jones estimates, while the annual increase was slightly below the 5.2% forecast.




Including food and energy, PCE inflation rose 0.3% for the month and 6.2% on a yearly basis, the same as in August.

The report comes as the Fed is prepared to enact its sixth interest rate increase of the year at its policy meeting next week. In an effort to combat inflation running at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years, the Fed has been raising rates, with increases totaling 3 percentage points thus far.

Markets widely expect the Fed to enact its fourth straight 0.75 percentage point increase at the meeting, but possibly slow down the pace of hikes after that.

The BEA also reported that personal income increased 0.4% in September, one-tenth of a percentage point above the estimate. Spending as gauged through personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6%, more than the 0.4% estimate.


We are in a very weird state now ---- inflation persistent, but not growing. Recession looming, but not present.

I feel like if Europe doesn't go into meltdown this winter with energy prices and China maybe starts relaxing on its asinine zero covid policy, we might avoid a truly bad recession.

If energy prices can stabilize and we unf---k the supply chain issues, I think we can begin to see modest growth and hopefully an easing of price pressures.
 
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We are in a very weird state now ---- inflation persistent, but not growing. Recession looming, but not present.

I feel like if Europe doesn't go into meltdown this winter with energy prices and China maybe starts relaxing on its asinine zero covid policy, we might avoid a truly bad recession.

If energy prices can stabilize and we unf---k the supply chain issues, I think we can begin to see modest growth and hopefully an easing of price pressures.

This talk of a major recession is severely overdone at this point in time. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows for sure. All of the talking heads out there predicting it are simply click bait and to drive ratings. Fear based selling at it’s finest. If they forecast it now, and happen to be right, 5 years from now their headline can read “From the guy who called the 2023 financial meltdown.” It’s a safe bet for them. It’s never actually mentioned in those articles that they also called the 2012, 2015, 2018, 2020 meltdowns. A lot of these frauds are the same ones managing hedge funds and manipulating the markets. It’s actually quite comical if you think about it.

With that said. This inflation is annoying. If it would just subside, we would be in great shape. Until it does, we still have headwinds ahead.
 
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This talk of a major recession is severely overdone at this point in time. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows for sure. All of the talking heads out there predicting it are simply click bait and to drive ratings. Fear based selling at it’s finest. If they forecast it now, and happen to be right, 5 years from now their headline can read “From the guy who called the 2023 financial meltdown.” It’s a safe bet for them. It’s never actually mentioned in those articles that they also called the 2012, 2015, 2018, 2020 meltdowns. A lot of these frauds are the same ones managing hedge funds and manipulating the markets. It’s actually quite comical if you think about it.

With that said. This inflation is annoying. If it would just subside, we would be in great shape. Until it does, we still have headwinds ahead.
The good news is people are still in high-demand mode for consumer products, many places are still very much trying to hire good people and wages are increasingly competitive because of that.

But how long is that sustainable if inflation keeps hanging around?

It feels like there is a demand for growth, but there are headwinds constraining it.
 
This talk of a major recession is severely overdone at this point in time. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows for sure. All of the talking heads out there predicting it are simply click bait and to drive ratings. Fear based selling at it’s finest. If they forecast it now, and happen to be right, 5 years from now their headline can read “From the guy who called the 2023 financial meltdown.” It’s a safe bet for them. It’s never actually mentioned in those articles that they also called the 2012, 2015, 2018, 2020 meltdowns. A lot of these frauds are the same ones managing hedge funds and manipulating the markets. It’s actually quite comical if you think about it.

With that said. This inflation is annoying. If it would just subside, we would be in great shape. Until it does, we still have headwinds ahead.
Fwiw the major banks have been saying 100% recession for 2023
 
The good news is people are still in high-demand mode for consumer products, many places are still very much trying to hire good people and wages are increasingly competitive because of that.

But how long is that sustainable if inflation keeps hanging around?

It feels like there is a demand for growth, but there are headwinds constraining it.

Agree and it creates quite the conundrum, doesn’t it? All the positives you listed brings us to our number one problem, inflation. It’s interesting to say the least. Bring in about 10 million immigrants to fill all the open jobs. Problem solved.
 
Fwiw the major banks have been saying 100% recession for 2023

I’m aware. Their last earnings reflect as much as they all have built massive reserves to protect against default. Smart decision.

I also believe we are likely going into a recession to start the year. Hell, the fed has all but said we need to to tame inflation. I just don’t believe it will be a long and deep one like many are forecasting. Probably because I am an eternal optimist.
 
The good news is people are still in high-demand mode for consumer products, many places are still very much trying to hire good people and wages are increasingly competitive because of that.

But how long is that sustainable if inflation keeps hanging around?

It feels like there is a demand for growth, but there are headwinds constraining it.
In a twisted way, that's bad news. The fed ain't gonna stop doin fed shit until people stop buying shit
 
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Even 1% inflation isn’t a win.

We don’t need the price of food to go up 1% from here. We need it to drop 15% and go up 1% from there.

True pain will be when fed says enough rate hikes and they realize people can’t afford the new baseline.
 
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