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Inflation going down…..maybe?

BrunoMars420

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Feb 14, 2016
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To clarify, that's an 8.5% from July 2021. On a monthly basis...

On a monthly basis, prices were flat as energy prices broadly declined 4.6% and gasoline fell 7.7%. That offset a 1.1% monthly gain in food prices and a 0.5% increase in shelter costs.

Declines in energy prices are leading the way. Food and shelter are still increasing. Overall good new, though.
 
To clarify, that's an 8.5% from July 2021. On a monthly basis...

On a monthly basis, prices were flat as energy prices broadly declined 4.6% and gasoline fell 7.7%. That offset a 1.1% monthly gain in food prices and a 0.5% increase in shelter costs.

Declines in energy prices are leading the way. Food and shelter are still increasing. Overall good new, though.
I would imagine with energy leading the way the rest will hopefully follow this month or next
 
Took time to get here, it will take time to get it back to normal
Jeeeebus Bruno! What do you expect? It took time to get here, too! 15 years or so...A couple of tax cuts, a couple of “quantitative easings” won’t be overcome overnight. Life and economies just don’t work that way. The Fed has the tools to slow this train down...do “we” have the patience? But, this news is good news for most Americans.
 
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Jeeeebus Bruno! What do you expect? It took time to get here, too! 15 years or so...A couple of tax cuts, a couple of “quantitative easings” won’t be overcome overnight. Life and economies just don’t work that way. The Fed has the tools to slow this train down...do “we” have the patience? But, this news is good news for most Americans.
Bruno has the patience
 
The decrease still exceeded expectations (8.5 vs 8.7%). Wouldn't you agree that a "soft landing" is the best possible outcome?
Normally a soft landing refers to the lack of significant recession accompanying declining inflation. Is that what you mean? If so, why would that not be a preferred outcome? Obviously It's not the best possible, but the likely best somewhat probable outcome.
 
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Energy prices have been a major factor in driving higher consumer prices. As energy prices go down, inflation will follow. Now we just need to get GDP to catch up with the massive increase in the money supply. If we're lucky, we'll see inflation shift back into the equity markets from consumer prices. We'll have to see what happens with energy prices when cold weather hits.
 
That’s good!
Rome was not built in a day. ;)
But the Roman Empire was destroyed by inflation…


4c24fdd77f8b9aa231cc0200
 
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You have no concept of what causes inflation, so of course this is another moment where we highlight your ignorance to emphasize a point.

The Federal Reserve actually has a lesson plan built around how the Romans debased their currency and generated inflation:

https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/...on_and_the_fall_of_the_roman_empire.pdf?la=en
Lol - I didn't say there wasn't inflation, there was. Saying it is what took the Roman Empire down is absurd. Nothing new for you.
 
Probability markets currently predicting Fed will back off to half a point in September.

Market forecasts for the fed have almost been as volatile as the markets themselves this year. Lots of data will come out between now and and the next meeting. If we continue to see a downward trend, .50 bps would probably be ok. This, imo, will be the trickiest stretch for the fed.
 
We get some great news for the economy and those two can’t handle themselves.
Seminole97 talks about how the Fed is the worst with some random history and Riley passive aggressively laughs at him then argues
Nothing passive-aggressive with correcting his misinformation.
 
Market forecasts for the fed have almost been as volatile as the markets themselves this year. Lots of data will come out between now and and the next meeting. If we continue to see a downward trend, .50 bps would probably be ok. This, imo, will be the trickiest stretch for the fed.
Not really that volatile. It's mostly fluctuated a quarter of a point for the last several months. And the Fed is not the only moving part in this equation. We still need to see a few more months before we have any idea where this is heading, imo.
 
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Not really that volatile. It's mostly fluctuated a quarter of a point for the last several months. And the Fed is not the only moving part in this equation. We still need to see a few more months before we have any idea where this is heading, imo.

I was mostly being facetious. But for normal fed forecast movement, it has been all over the place. Just 3 days ago, after the employment number on Friday, it was at a 67% chance for a .75 bps hike. And he’s f course we need to see a few more months, heck, the rest of the year needs to see more of this. That is why I said continue to see a downward trend.

And the fed, while not the only moving part, is most definitely the primary catalyst. Has been all year.
 
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I have to say, it's been a pretty good three weeks for Biden. There is still work to do, obviously, but man, talk about a turn around.
Oddly enough, just like inflation going up, Biden has little to nothing to do with this.
 
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