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PK could have a very nice year and still not place. that weight is nasty. yikes.65, what a meat grinder. Looks to easily be the toughest bracket. Imo
Crazy
Carr 3rd, Hamiti 6th, Kharchla 7th? Ugly bracket.
Scary and brutal.
Any of the top 7 can knock each other off on a given night.
PK could have a very nice year and still not place. that weight is nasty. yikes.
Barring injury, I guarantee PK places.PK could have a very nice year and still not place. that weight is nasty. yikes.
I like the optimism but idk if guarantee is the right word here.Barring injury, I guarantee PK places.
Guarantee is the right word and it’s the word I meant to useI like the optimism but idk if guarantee is the right word here.
I like it. Warner overachieving would be champ It will be tougher with Ferrari back but he can beat all of top 5 and can lose to all of them.Real Woods, thank you Lord. We needed him in a bad way. Lot's of work to do but i think we have a great shot at overachieving at many weights. Brands, Max, Assad, Warner, Cass, to name a few.
Drake, any chance he has a growth spurt and gets to 133? He hasn't taken his redshirt has he?
Edit: Plus I'm super excited about Kennedy.
How can you actually guarantee that.Guarantee is the right word and it’s the word I meant to use
"Hey, if you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed I will"How can you actually guarantee that.
don't put that evil on PK (or my fantasy team)PK could have a very nice year and still not place. that weight is nasty. yikes.
Hey Willie I know it’s semantics, but what’s the justification for Slav ahead of Davison or Orndorff? I didn’t look at results and know Slav is pretty good, but Orndorff has placed (2x?) and Davison placed. Maybe he has a h2h win but just thought it was weird.don't put that evil on PK (or my fantasy team)
Warner is capable…. really felt like things finally clicked for him at last years ncaa’sI like it. Warner overachieving would be champ It will be tougher with Ferrari back but he can beat all of top 5 and can lose to all of them.
Hey Willie I know it’s semantics, but what’s the justification for Slav ahead of Davison or Orndorff? I didn’t look at results and know Slav is pretty good, but Orndorff has placed (2x?) and Davison placed. Maybe he has a h2h win but just thought it was weird.
Thanks. I know he’s good but didn’t even realize he had any matches last year. Plus I think Orndorff is a sad excuse for a D1 wrestler. He’s so pathetic against anyone with a pulse.He had wins over both at Cliff Keen last year.
Plus a finalist, if he could go 57 he should. Let brands wrestle 653 NCAA champs at the same weight.
Warner is capable…. really felt like things finally clicked for him at last years ncaa’s
I hope he gained more confidence from that showing ….. always seemed to me to “hold back” a little too much in the past…. when he’s on his offense he’s really good!
I’d rather he didn’t wait til the last minute…. the way they ref at nationals the last thing you want to do is get behind early and have to chase a guy in the thirdI am going to say it out loud...Warner is $$ at the NCAAs. Here are his losses:
2019:
Lane 4-2 SV-1
Hokit 5-4
2021:
Ferrari 3-2
Amine 5-3
2022:
Dean 3-2
He will always wrestle, even the best guys, a close match. Has to figure out how to score in the last minute to flip these results. But yea, a guy like that has a chance to win.
Hey Willie I know it’s semantics, but what’s the justification for Slav ahead of Davison or Orndorff? I didn’t look at results and know Slav is pretty good, but Orndorff has placed (2x?) and Davison placed. Maybe he has a h2h win but just thought it was weird.
If your not satisfied with the prediction, you get 100% of your money back.How can you actually guarantee that.
It is simply a matter of his skill set/style. He is well scouted and not exactly an offensive dynamo. So his go to offense is often eliminated by his opponents positioning. When he does get in trouble, it is almost always from him pushing offensive positions too hard on his feet. He is at his best when he lets his opponents come to him. His go behinds are about as good as it gets.I’d rather he didn’t wait til the last minute…. the way they ref at nationals the last thing you want to do is get behind early and have to chase a guy in the third
I agree with your assessment of his strengths…… my point was if he scores earlier and is wrestling with a lead his opponents would have to “come to him” in your words…… rather than him being behind at the end and having to chase them….It is simply a matter of his skill set/style. He is well scouted and not exactly an offensive dynamo. So his go to offense is often eliminated by his opponents positioning. When he does get in trouble, it is almost always from him pushing offensive positions too hard on his feet. He is at his best when he lets his opponents come to him. His go behinds are about as good as it gets.
Where he is at his best is on the mat. He can escape from anyone and can grind out that minute advantage in riding time. With that said, His advantage in neutral is his positioning. It may lend to many close scoring matches, but it still puts him in his best position to win.
Now, his weakness is that last 30-45 seconds. He often uses up a TON of energy on the mat trying to hold onto a 1 point lead and he has been vulnerable at times on his feet in those last few seconds when he does appear to have a bit of rubber legs at the end of matches...
I agree with the premise, however, it just isn't that easy for many DI wrestlers. Warner has pretty much mastered his skillset. However, that skillset doesn't lend to him scoring early on the top 10 or so guys at his weight. This is a topic that I feel strongly about. I often see many fans calling for more shooting, attacks and scoring. Early and often.I agree with your assessment of his strengths…… my point was if he scores earlier and is wrestling with a lead his opponents would have to “come to him” in your words…… rather than him being behind at the end and having to chase them….
I honestly can’t think of a circumstance where it’s not better to score early (and often) and wrestle with a lead….. especially at nationals where refs calling stalling is a rarity
This is spot on, IMO.I agree with the premise, however, it just isn't that easy for many DI wrestlers. Warner has pretty much mastered his skillset. However, that skillset doesn't lend to him scoring early on the top 10 or so guys at his weight. This is a topic that I feel strongly about. I often see many fans calling for more shooting, attacks and scoring. Early and often.
It just IS NOT that easy. I would love to see Iowa have guys scoring points against the best early and often. But, this requires more than just training. It requires recruiting kids with the abilities necessary to do so. To be clear, these kind of wrestler don't grow on trees. I relate more to the Warner, Murin, Lugo or even Marinelli types. They mastered the skill sets that fit them best. I have a soft spot for "grinders".
Not all wrestlers can be flashy like a Nickal or slick like a Burroughs. Hell, even Spencer Lee has ridiculous grip strength. Because, make no mistake, you arent cranking guys over with bar arms in DI with just technique. DI positioning, defense and inevitably counter offense are at an all time high. Unless you are a freak or have mastered a technique that suits your physical attributes almost perfectly, it is VERY HARD to score at the top of the DI level...
The weight class is brutal, but 17th would be very disappointing. That being said, some very good wrestlers will miss the the podium at 165 this year. Fortunately PK won't be one of them!Patrick Kennedy will move up quickly.
Because Willie is a SkidmarkHey Willie I know it’s semantics, but what’s the justification for Slav ahead of Davison or Orndorff? I didn’t look at results and know Slav is pretty good, but Orndorff has placed (2x?) and Davison placed. Maybe he has a h2h win but just thought it was weird.
So you’re saying wrestling is hard?I agree with the premise, however, it just isn't that easy for many DI wrestlers. Warner has pretty much mastered his skillset. However, that skillset doesn't lend to him scoring early on the top 10 or so guys at his weight. This is a topic that I feel strongly about. I often see many fans calling for more shooting, attacks and scoring. Early and often.
It just IS NOT that easy. I would love to see Iowa have guys scoring points against the best early and often. But, this requires more than just training. It requires recruiting kids with the abilities necessary to do so. To be clear, these kind of wrestler don't grow on trees. I relate more to the Warner, Murin, Lugo or even Marinelli types. They mastered the skill sets that fit them best. I have a soft spot for "grinders".
Not all wrestlers can be flashy like a Nickal or slick like a Burroughs. Hell, even Spencer Lee has ridiculous grip strength. Because, make no mistake, you arent cranking guys over with bar arms in DI with just technique. DI positioning, defense and inevitably counter offense are at an all time high. Unless you are a freak or have mastered a technique that suits your physical attributes almost perfectly, it is VERY HARD to score at the top of the DI level...
Not really. Wrestling all the way up to High School is pretty easy. You can be as much as a state placer, by having solid cardio, a decent work ethic, 6+ years of experience. decent technique and positional awareness. Depending on the state and division you are in placing high and/or being a state champ can be hard. Wrestling after that gets considerably harder.So you’re saying wrestling is hard?
well ok …. you obviously know way more about wrestling than I do…… let me ask you this…..Not really. Wrestling all the way up to High School is pretty easy. You can be as much as a state placer, by having solid cardio, a decent work ethic, 6+ years of experience. decent technique and positional awareness. Depending on the state and division you are in placing high and/or being a state champ can be hard. Wrestling after that gets considerably harder.
Not addressing the other divisions, being a DI wrestler is pretty hard. Being a DI starter is hard. Being a DI starter on a top team is very hard. Being a top 20 wrestler is even harder. Being an AA is exceptionally hard. Being top 3 is ridiculously hard. Being a Finalist and or Champ makes anything, where the use of the word hard fits, seem easy.
Taking that all into account, being able to score early and often against top 10 wrestlers whenever you need to is exponentially more difficult than all the gaps between all the levels I listed above...
well I did find this but it’s referring to high schoolNot really. Wrestling all the way up to High School is pretty easy. You can be as much as a state placer, by having solid cardio, a decent work ethic, 6+ years of experience. decent technique and positional awareness. Depending on the state and division you are in placing high and/or being a state champ can be hard. Wrestling after that gets considerably harder.
Not addressing the other divisions, being a DI wrestler is pretty hard. Being a DI starter is hard. Being a DI starter on a top team is very hard. Being a top 20 wrestler is even harder. Being an AA is exceptionally hard. Being top 3 is ridiculously hard. Being a Finalist and or Champ makes anything, where the use of the word hard fits, seem easy.
Taking that all into account, being able to score early and often against top 10 wrestlers whenever you need to is exponentially more difficult than all the gaps between all the levels I listed above...
Again, I said I agree with your premise. Getting the 1st takedown is huge. Especially if you can do it early. However, my point was simply about how hard it is to do against top level wrestlers. I then compounded that in the case of Warner, because he isn’t a big takedown guy to begin with.well I did find this but it’s referring to high school
It is unclear if any direct statistics apply to high school wrestling, but area coaches estimate that wrestlers who register the first takedown of a match go on to win as much as 80 percent of the time.
"I think you're looking at the first takedown winning 75 or 80 percent of the time," Beth-Center wrestling coach Chuck Colborn said. "It's a big momentum thing. It's very important to be able to score first in the match."
Coaches differ on why the first takedown is so important, but most agree that the 75 percent winning percentage is not unreasonable. They say the reason for that comes down to psychology, strategy and simple mathematics.
"If I'm wrestling you, and I get the first takedown, I'm up 2-0 in the first period," Elizabeth Forward coach Rich Scheuermann said. "If I can ride you out for the period, then I can start the second period in the down position. I get an escape, I'm up 3-0. Even if you come back and take me down and get an escape, you've only managed to get it to 3-3. Then I'm going to be down again with a chance to get an escape and win, 4-3. So getting the first takedown gives you an advantage just from that standpoint."
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heres a study by wisconsin lacrosse where they say scoring the first takedown leads to winning 79% of the time…… I’m gonna let this go….. don’t want to seem like more of a dick than I am 😂 but my whole point about Warner scoring earlier in matches was based on this thinkingwell ok …. you obviously know way more about wrestling than I do…… let me ask you this…..
If you can take your opponent down in the 3rd period…… why can’t you take him down in the 1st period
not sure if the stat is even available but I’d like to know the winning percentage of wrestlers that get the first takedown in a match…….. I’ll take a stab at it …70%??