This thread should be in a very rose colored tint.
I know this is the Iowa board but I’m shocked how many of you really believe Kem beats Hall.
Hall is..
1. Better technical wrestler
2. Stronger
3. Better defensively
4. Better on top
5. No injury history
Kem is..
1. Bumping up 2 weights
2. Couldn’t take down Nolf, and Hall harder to take down
3. Coming off major injury
4. No Advantage in any of the 3 areas (top, bottom or neutral)
So besides being an Iowa fan, what would be reasons someone picking Kem over Hall? Seriously?
If you had a straight up friendly conversation, I doubt many, if any, of those picking Kem to win actually consider Kem the better wrestler. But, saying it is a "dream" to think he could win is "very rose colored" as well.
1.)Hall wrestles a style that lends itself to very close scores with AA level competition. Keep wrestling close matches and all it takes is one mistake to lose. Hall has NOT proven himself infallible.
2.)Kemerer is a VERY good wrestler. Injuries and Nolf(I am sorry but there is no part of folkstyle wrestling that I consider Hall better than Nolf at) have really been the ONLY(excepting a poor decision to "palacio" with Palacio) thing holding him back and he has still finished top 4 both years he has competed in a rather deep weight class.
3.)Injury is a factor, but it isn't one you pre-season prognosticate with. Considering, unless you are a true insider, you have NO CLUE how his health is, it is only fair to pick him based on his wrestling abilities only.
4.)Strength-This is impossible to quantify as a benefit for either. Some guys can move up weights after cutting too much and become monsters. Churella did it. Luke did it. Hell Kutler did it as well. All were physical specimens jumping up 2 weights. With Kemerer's body type I would be truly surprised if lack of strength is even a slight factor.
5.) I think you are seriously devaluing Kem's mat wrestling. Do you recall a match where he was controlled on the mat or simply couldn't ride someone when he had to? Also, although I would agree, to this point, that Hall's neutral defense has proven better than Kem's neutral offense, the gap isn't that wide.
So with that said, Hall should be considered a favorite, but that gap is slight. A Kemerer win would not be more than a very mild surprise.
Now, if I had to personally pick, I would think their outcomes would be very similar to Hall vs. Amine. One point matches with Hall squeaking by each time.