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Investing in Big Ten teams, long term

DanL53

HR Legend
Sep 12, 2013
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This is about the five year outlook. So 2015/16 is only part of the bigger picture. It's about whether teams are on the rise, or not. And of course this is only my opinion. And, you can't really "invest" so don't ask me who my broker is. :)

Buy:

1) Maryland. They have hit the trifecta. East Coast recruiting market, a corporate shoe company sponsor for an alumni, and having joined the Big Ten they escape the Duke dominated ACC for the competitive but achievable heights of the Big Ten. I have a feeling I'm going to hate these guys more and more.

2) Michigan State. The safest bet for a steady return. Recent recruiting indicates that Izzo has begun the foundation of a team that could rival Maryland for National Championship potential.

3) This is a three way tie. In alphabetical order, Iowa. The long term commits from two McCaffery's and Wieskamp has me wondering what happens when you take a program that overachieves and give them nationally respected talent.

Northwestern. Risky, but you can still buy in low and from the looks of things Collins is building a program that can get NCAA invites. That's huge. The big question is does he stay?

Penn State. Surprise pick maybe, but one has to see the recruiting success going on. Given Pat Chambers is a good game coach, and there is reason to believe they lift themselves up beyond cellar dweller and into NCAA invites as well. Reason? They are the closest Big Ten school to the East Coast besides the newbies. They benefit the most from "being there"

Hold:

6) Michigan. Problem is they are pretty high now. No concerns of a letdown but maintaining their current level is going to take hard work, there isn't much more ceiling above them.

7) Ohio State. Same as Michigan but a tad more volatile. They rely on better recruiting which one day could mean they assemble a fantastic squad. But when you are replacing your best, who go pro early, over and over?

8) Purdue. Last year would have them at buy, buy and more buy. But their stock has risen so much already that there can be little left for an early return.

Watch:

9) Rutgers. The question is the infrastructure. If they keep waiting for Big Ten money to rebuild investing would be like burying your money in the yard. You would only lose it if you forgot where it was. And being new to the Big Ten, now is the time for Rutgers to stand up and make a statement. Or people will forget where they are buried. So, watch, if they look like they are getting serious it couldn't hurt to drop expendable risk on them.

Sell:

10) Indiana. Way over valued. Mismanagement of assets and no hope for improvement with the current CEO. Sell fast and put them on the watch list if and when new management takes over.

11) Wisconsin. Looking for a new direction and suddenly the old boy might not be ready to leave? As far as they have to fall, and without being the "too big to fail" program? Get out. Sell.

12) Minnesota. Dragging their feet could put them in the bottom of the league for a long time to come. If you still have investment in their program you can sell, or expect at least no return for several years.

13) Illinois. Sell. Sell now! Their value is highly over-ranked and the ground under their feet is quicksand. Get out.

14) Nebraska. Illinois squared. That's not quicksand, it's pure water. And the ship is sinking. It might be hard to see in their new digs but you have got Captain Ahab on deck and his crew quit last year, expect more mutinies. It's a White Whale that Miles is seeking. Too bad he's a basketball coach and not a sea captain. By next week he might think he's Tarzan. The guy isn't all there. Sell, give away, burn.
 
Because you didn't put any prices on these teams, I don't whether to buy, sell or hold. College basketball is all about recruiting and teams like Indiana, MSU and MD are always going to recruit really well. Then you have teams like Illinois, Michigan and Purdue who have proven to be pretty good at getting good players to commit. Iowa is not recruiting well enough which I find strange because I like Fran a lot.
 
Maybe Fran is recruiting well enough but doesn't have the coaching ability to develop his players to an elite level.
 
Indiana is a watch. They are as close to "too big to fail" as there is. Tend to agree on the leadership issues, but it is the COO that has to go (not CEO) in order to provide stakeholder expectations. PSU, NU and Iowa might be good buys if the price is right as the returns would be in percentages rather than dollars.

Think you have undervalued Wisky, they will be a steady return. I would short Purdue as they have skyrocketed in the last quarter, but historically any profit cycles have been short term.

Agree on Ohio, Il, and Minny. Rutgers and Neb. Are not on the board yet.
 
Wisconsin has shown in football that they can be successful with multiple head coaches (Alvarez, bielema, even Gary Andersen won double digit games both years).

Basketball has also been successful with multiple head coaches (Bennett and Ryan). It seems to me that Wisconsin is a well run athletic department overall
 
Maybe Fran is recruiting well enough but doesn't have the coaching ability to develop his players to an elite level.

I have totally the opposite opinion. Fran has developed players like Gabe, Whitey, and Marble into borderline NBA players when they were considered borderline B1G caliber players out of high school. That's development. You can add in, Gatens and even Eric May's incredible senior seasons. I hope to someday see what Fran can do with a roster full of his primary recruiting targets for once.
 
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